For the next year I will use this account to document my trading journey and share my thoughts daily about the markets and where they are headed. I will give my thoughts on Tradfi, commodities, and crypto. If anyone has specific questions feel free to ask.
@SinoopyS@ChadNedohin@OilHeadlineNews@Dan_Dicker Drawing down reserves is not the same thing as demand destruction. Destruction implies less oil isn’t being used, which is not the case. China just has large stockpiles to draw from
@sinnerandrew@WeTheBrandon America effectively is oil independent but the rest of the world very much is not and the US is exporting egregious amounts to balance the global deficit. This is ultimately unsustainable in the long run and once we run out of excess oil the Brent price will skyrocket
@THEHCC@SeanRussellBook The genetic mixture Augustus was a result of was Gallic warbands raiding and migrating into Italy hundreds of years before. The Norman’s and Vikings expeditions in the areas were 1000 years after
Reminder that doctors were so outraged at their colleague for introducing the idea of *washing their hands* that they had him fired, hounded from the country, and eventually beaten to death in an insane asylum for his temerity.
This chart isn't only about Brent oil futures short positions close to all-time highs when the oil supply shock is about to strike - it also tells you that the run to ~120$ oil price in the first days of March was a short squeeze
⚠️March was a preview of what's going to happen
The effect of this is that when oil prices are stable and return to the same price in future months the total value of $USO increases even the oil is worth the same, because the size of it’s position increases
(4/365) outside of talking about longing $USO because of macro reasons or being a barrel counter. The reason why it’s better exposure for a retail investor than $WTI is because it benefits from backwardation and roll yield. ->
What this means is that when the expiry for the monthly figure comes around it has to swap out of its positions. When the front month is worth more than the future this is called backwardation and has the fund sell more valuable oil for cheaper oil. ->
(3/365) being an oil bull is rough here, sentiment in the gutter, and capitulation/liquidation events. Yet Trump even admitted we are 4 weeks away from oil Armageddon, and Israel can’t seem to let go of Lebanon so anyone entering the strait anytime soon is unlikely.