Riley Yung

I run a bug instagram. Former SpaceX, Commonwealth Fusion, 2nd grade coach’s pitch mvp

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@DavidBCollum Early release of locked up shares puts downward pressure on the stock price. It’s not a measure to prop it up

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

It’s just something most people dislike.

I mean we could get into a whole debate about the definition of “objective” and “opinion”, but it’s it’s fine to say that murder causes a lot of people to suffer, and we just don’t like that.

It also doesn’t become more objective with the existence of God. You’re just picking God’s opinion and calling that the objective one, but that’s a bit arbitrary

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@BlackMambaMilli spending time on reddit is a poor way to get more money

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@Mike_M_Klotz Eat less

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@puppyeh1 Yall have some ice cold takes on here, sheesh

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@BenjaminDEKR From what I read the deal starts in September with clauses for Google to cancel if the full compute isn’t available, so I’m guessing this is for the colossus 2 expansion, not the current colossus 2 gpus

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@ReadyFireAim4 @jimstewartson You could certainly argue that this is a friendly deal by Google to help Elon out, or to boost their investment value, or that it’s just for show and they’ll cancel as soon as they can. Maybe. But it’s not at all the same as the circular financing going on elsewhere

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

Yeah, that’s not what’s happening here. In those deals it’s like: nvidia is giving openAI gpus in exchange for OpenAI stock. But to make it look better for nvidia they’re like “can we also give you cash and then you give it back so it looks like we had revenue”

In this deal, Google is giving spacex cash for compute. They are not getting the cash back

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@ApoStructura Surely when you go from $1B/year spend to $40B/year capital efficiency goes down, but yeah, it's a lot of money coming in

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@chamath well, no. that cost 250 billion

[Rob Maurer @robmaurer]

Remember a couple weeks ago when everyone was saying a 100x price/sales was crazy for SpaceX and all of a sudden it’s like 39x? Shows how dumb that type of analysis is 😅

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@paulg tesla stock hasn't been going up for the last few years so there aren't as many people mad about missing out

[Yishan @yishan]

And this is why so many who think the SPCX IPO is overpriced are wrong.

There may be a dip after the offering due to sentiment or culture war or lockup expirations, but on a 5-year (and longer) basis, this is a fundamental expansion of the size of the entire world economy. This is exactly what people talk about when they say in the short term the stock market is a voting machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.

SpaceX holds a near-monopoly on affordable space launch. The amount of economic opportunity unlocked by that is staggeringly huge. The only other provider is China (and more expensive - one of the few areas where China can’t beat the US on price), and is unavailable to the Western world anyhow.

Thus, EVERYONE who wants to do anything with space will need to use SpaceX’s Starship, because it will be orders of magnitude cheaper than anyone else, and the moat is 100% earned, and not due to regulatory capture. Space launch is VERY HARD, and one company figured out how to do it economically while everyone either failed or gave up.

This is one of those economic situations where making a single key thing orders of magnitude cheaper massively unleashes demand and the creation of novel economic value. It is essentially unlocking the entire inner solar system for industry (and likely tourism), and will multiply the size of the world economy itself.

Disclaimer: I am long SPCX, and you can either view this as me shilling my book or putting my own money where my mouth is.

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@mxschumacher @nextbigfuture @VladBastion It’s a pretty good business for Amazon and Microsoft and Google

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@astrodanish This is true-ish, but I don't think there are any millionairs at the companies with 4 figure liquid NW

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@DKThompson wasn't this already reported 3 months ago?

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@MetamateDaz Not saying it’ll go up or down or anything but literally no one is exiting their position in these transactions. The company is just creating brand new shares and selling them.

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@MetamateDaz This is not “exit liquidity”. ~all current shareholders are locked up and can’t start to sell for a couple months. These are the new shares created for the ipo

[Riley Yung @karkwonk]

@BenjaminDEKR @knowclarified I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment, but basically nobody, including the top ai guys, realized that just spamming wayyy more compute would make such a difference for the models architecture we already had. That was something of a surprise in the 2020s