nextbigfuture

Brian Wang | NextBigFuture: Deep Tech Insights on AI, Drones, Space, Energy & Investments | Proven prediction track record (Metaculus rank 8 + Grok citations

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Morningstar ignores SpaceX largest current business They come up with a valuation only half of the IPO and even achieving AI data centers in space is not worth the full IPO valuation. They value an AI data center in space scenario as only worth $1.3 trillion. They achieve this crappy analysis by ignoring the Anthropic $15 billion per year rent, no Cursor or Grok Code success possibility, lowball on Starlink high speed internet and lowball Starlink direct to cellphone, lowball on Starship. @elonmusk @RandyWKirk1 @WR4NYGov XAI already has built 20% of all global AI data centers in the last two years. 2 GW out of 10 GW. This is without space AI data centers. There can also be collaboration with Tesla on distributed AI at superchargers and other sites. @FredaDuan

The SpaceX business right now in terms of revenue and profits is the $15 billion per year from the rental of the AI data centers that already have been built.XAI gets this from renting out 325000 GPUS. 230,000 H100, H200 and B200 GPUs at Colossus 1 and 95,000 B300 GPUs from Colossus 2. If XAI only needed 275,000 B200 GPUs to run and train Cursor Composer and Grok then XAI could rent out 185,000 B300s. This could be another $20 billion per year in rent from an already built and operating AI data center.

XAI built Colossus 2 in 12 months. XAI has a Macroharder - aka Colossus 3 facility prepared for its building and has arranged for 2 gigawatts of energy. This could be 1 million Rubin GPUs ready to run AI for others or their own Cursor or Grok. This could be $100 billion per year in rent.

Morningstar dismisses this business and makes no attempt to discuss or model XAI or SpaceX following up to build more terrestrial ai data center.

They discuss verticalizing the AI infrastructure and talk about some chip production but they ignore Terafab. SpaceX just bought over 3100 acres (about 5 square miles) where they plan to build Terafab.

They have no scenario where XAI does anything or where Cursor acquisition is completed and it becomes relavant. This is despite ove $3 billion per year in XAI revenue and over $3 billion in Cursor revenue. A bullish cursor and grok code scenario is reaching one third of future Anthropic renenue of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

There is no mention of X Payments. This is already in beta and Elon Musk created Paypal.

They describe what they call a wildly optimistic scenario that only doubles low balled Starlink revenue and value. This is where Starship is working in 2029 and then AI data centers get to 20% of earth based global ai data center build. XAI has already built 20% of the ai data centers completed in the last two years.

About 10 gigawatts of AI data center built in last two years and 2 gigawatts by XAI.

Starship could be launching real satellites in 2-3 months by just relighting the rockets to safely de-orbit. This safe de-orbit was why they were holding back puting up payloads. They did not want to risk 200 tons of space junk which could happen if the engines did not de-orbit.

The Starship booster has already been returned 3 times and reused twice. A fully reused booster would lower launch costs to $100-200 per kilogram.

They talk about the heat shield on Starship as something three years away but that looks like it is working from the last launch.

If the full AI data center in space scenario happens it will be 10-100 times the global AI data center deployment. It will tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Theo Von: “Is OpenAI actually closed?” @elonmusk

Sam: “We have a proprietary, heavily restricted, non-public codebase and frontier models that we keep tightly controlled for safety, alignment, and competitive reasons… but I don’t have what I would call a closed AI company.”

[Joe Rogan Podcast News @joeroganhq]

Theo Von: "Do you have a bunker?"

Sam: "I have underground concrete heavy reinforced basements… but I don’t have what I would call a bunker."

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Weight loss drugs appear to lower breast cancer by 30%

[Max Marchione @maxmarchione]

New study of 111,646 women: GLP-1 use was linked to about 30% lower breast cancer incidence.

For scale, tamoxifen (the drug we prescribe to prevent it) runs about 38%, minus the endometrial cancer and clot risk.

Not proof yet, but looks very promising.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Morningstar ignores SpaceX largest current business They come up with a valuation only half of the IPO and even achieving AI data centers in space is not worth the full IPO valuation. They value an AI data center in space scenario as only worth $1.3 trillion. They achieve this crappy analysis by ignoring the Anthropic $15 billion per year rent, no Cursor or Grok Code success possibility, lowball on Starlink high speed internet and lowball Starlink direct to cellphone. @aaronburnett @VladSaigau @ARKInvest

XAI already has built 20% of all global AI data centers in the last two years. 2 GW out of 10 GW. This is without space AI data centers. There can also be collaboration with Tesla on distributed AI at superchargers and other sites.

The SpaceX business right now in terms of revenue and profits is the $15 billion per year from the rental of the AI data centers that already have been built.XAI gets this from renting out 325000 GPUS. 230,000 H100, H200 and B200 GPUs at Colossus 1 and 95,000 B300 GPUs from Colossus 2. If XAI only needed 275,000 B200 GPUs to run and train Cursor Composer and Grok then XAI could rent out 185,000 B300s. This could be another $20 billion per year in rent from an already built and operating AI data center.

XAI built Colossus 2 in 12 months. XAI has a Macroharder - aka Colossus 3 facility prepared for its building and has arranged for 2 gigawatts of energy. This could be 1 million Rubin GPUs ready to run AI for others or their own Cursor or Grok. This could be $100 billion per year in rent.

Morningstar dismisses this business and makes no attempt to discuss or model XAI or SpaceX following up to build more terrestrial ai data center.

They discuss verticalizing the AI infrastructure and talk about some chip production but they ignore Terafab. SpaceX just bought over 3100 acres (about 5 square miles) where they plan to build Terafab.

They have no scenario where XAI does anything or where Cursor acquisition is completed and it becomes relavant. This is despite ove $3 billion per year in XAI revenue and over $3 billion in Cursor revenue. A bullish cursor and grok code scenario is reaching one third of future Anthropic renenue of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

There is no mention of X Payments. This is already in beta and Elon Musk created Paypal.

They describe what they call a wildly optimistic scenario that only doubles low balled Starlink revenue and value. This is where Starship is working in 2029 and then AI data centers get to 20% of earth based global ai data center build. XAI has already built 20% of the ai data centers completed in the last two years.

About 10 gigawatts of AI data center built in last two years and 2 gigawatts by XAI.

Starship could be launching real satellites in 2-3 months by just relighting the rockets to safely de-orbit. This safe de-orbit was why they were holding back puting up payloads. They did not want to risk 200 tons of space junk which could happen if the engines did not de-orbit.

The Starship booster has already been returned 3 times and reused twice. A fully reused booster would lower launch costs to $100-200 per kilogram.

They talk about the heat shield on Starship as something three years away but that looks like it is working from the last launch.

If the full AI data center in space scenario happens it will be 10-100 times the global AI data center deployment. It will tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Ai capex update

[Freda Duan @FredaDuan]

Latest Capex & FCF Tracker

Source: all forecasts taken from Visible Alpha; all historical numbers taken from company financials

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

The xai rental of 25% of total current total ai data center has 70% profit margin. They can rent out another $15 billion per year and still have half left for cursor and grok training and running their models. Total revenue is at $40 billion run rate including the 2-3% of shares to buy cursor. Making $8-10 billion of profit run rate. Will end this calendar year profitable. Each month now very profitable

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

@100MBTC Thanks.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Morningstar ignores SpaceX largest current business They come up with a valuation only half of the IPO and even achieving AI data centers in space is not worth the full IPO valuation. They value an AI data center in space scenario as only worth $1.3 trillion. They achieve this crappy analysis by ignoring the Anthropic $15 billion per year rent, no Cursor or Grok Code success possibility, lowball on Starlink high speed internet and lowball Starlink direct to cellphone, lowball on Starship. @elonmusk @RandyWKirk1 @WR4NYGov XAI already has built 20% of all global AI data centers in the last two years. 2 GW out of 10 GW. This is without space AI data centers. There can also be collaboration with Tesla on distributed AI at superchargers and other sites. @FredaDuan

The SpaceX business right now in terms of revenue and profits is the $15 billion per year from the rental of the AI data centers that already have been built.XAI gets this from renting out 325000 GPUS. 230,000 H100, H200 and B200 GPUs at Colossus 1 and 95,000 B300 GPUs from Colossus 2. If XAI only needed 275,000 B200 GPUs to run and train Cursor Composer and Grok then XAI could rent out 185,000 B300s. This could be another $20 billion per year in rent from an already built and operating AI data center.

XAI built Colossus 2 in 12 months. XAI has a Macroharder - aka Colossus 3 facility prepared for its building and has arranged for 2 gigawatts of energy. This could be 1 million Rubin GPUs ready to run AI for others or their own Cursor or Grok. This could be $100 billion per year in rent.

Morningstar dismisses this business and makes no attempt to discuss or model XAI or SpaceX following up to build more terrestrial ai data center.

They discuss verticalizing the AI infrastructure and talk about some chip production but they ignore Terafab. SpaceX just bought over 3100 acres (about 5 square miles) where they plan to build Terafab.

They have no scenario where XAI does anything or where Cursor acquisition is completed and it becomes relavant. This is despite ove $3 billion per year in XAI revenue and over $3 billion in Cursor revenue. A bullish cursor and grok code scenario is reaching one third of future Anthropic renenue of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

There is no mention of X Payments. This is already in beta and Elon Musk created Paypal.

They describe what they call a wildly optimistic scenario that only doubles low balled Starlink revenue and value. This is where Starship is working in 2029 and then AI data centers get to 20% of earth based global ai data center build. XAI has already built 20% of the ai data centers completed in the last two years.

About 10 gigawatts of AI data center built in last two years and 2 gigawatts by XAI.

Starship could be launching real satellites in 2-3 months by just relighting the rockets to safely de-orbit. This safe de-orbit was why they were holding back puting up payloads. They did not want to risk 200 tons of space junk which could happen if the engines did not de-orbit.

The Starship booster has already been returned 3 times and reused twice. A fully reused booster would lower launch costs to $100-200 per kilogram.

They talk about the heat shield on Starship as something three years away but that looks like it is working from the last launch.

If the full AI data center in space scenario happens it will be 10-100 times the global AI data center deployment. It will tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

@WesleyChapelFC1 Thanks

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

My projection of SpaceX revenue and profits.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Memory is two thirds of AI data centers component costs

[Shanu Mathew @ShanuMathew93]

Yes, Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Cerebra’s wafer scale chip advantages and roadmap

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

Cerebras did what the industry calls impossible: turned an entire 46,225mm² wafer into one chip. Defects on silicon that big are inevitable, so they built in redundancy and custom per-batch masks that route around every bad core, landing near 100% usable wafers. The results: 900,000 cores and 44GB of SRAM on a single piece of silicon, no packaging, no off-chip hops. And they're not stopping there, now exploring hybrid bonding a DRAM wafer on top for even more fast memory. (1/4) 🧵

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Xai making more inexpensive ai data centers in 25% of rhe time and 60-70% of the cost of compentitors @elonmusk

[Brett Winton @wintonARK]

on SpaceXai's datacenter capital efficiency

Colossus II at $29 billion per GW vs compute-chip normalized benchmarks of $44 to $54 billion.

Advantage is spread across faster time to build, good chip/networking pricing, and other infrastructure building efficiencies.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

@johnm6875 Or vestigial rockets that were more intense flatulence

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Prehistoric evidence of Gamera guardian of the universe at the natural history museum

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

@johnm6875 True. The rockets may have existed but were not fossilized

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Good new blue origin can launch from the launchpad by year end 2026

[Dave Limp @davill]

Some LC-36 updates. Now that we’ve had access to the pad and integration facility we can share a bit of good news. The propellant farm, oxygen, liquid hydrogen and LNG tanks are all in good shape. This is good luck because these are very long lead items. The water tower is also good. The big support tower is damaged, but it can be repaired in place rather than torn down and replaced. The booster “Never Tell Me The Odds” and the three GS-2s that were onsite in the integration facility also look good.

I’ve seen some speculation that we might move directly to the 9x4 configuration, but we won’t do that. Rate manufacturing of 7x2 is going well, and we’re going to continue that at pace as planned and store the stages for use. In addition, we had already been working for some time on eliminating our transporter-erector in favor of an alternative vertical conop, and we’ll now go directly to that; so we don’t need a new transporter-erector.

We will fly again before the end of this year. Gradatim Ferociter.

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Elon musk says Thr anthropic deal is short term. This would be thinkingbrhat xai and cursor will catch up to anthropic so xai will be able triple the revenue they get from anthropic rental

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Elon on SpaceX’s compute lease deal with Anthropic:

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

SpaceX is buying about 6 square miles of land for the TERAFAB complex @elonmusk

[S.E. Robinson, Jr. @SERobinsonJr]

TERAFAB: Wit Tech LLC, a purchasing company that shares the physical address of xAI in Palo Alto, California, is purchasing 3,135 acres in Grimes County, Texas, around the Gibbons Creek Reservoir area.

This is the area for the $55 billion, up to $119 billion, SpaceXAI Multiphase, next gen, vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing and advanced computing fabrication facility. Part of the SpaceX Reinvestment Zone No. 1 – 2026-001 located at Gibbons Creek Reservoir and surrounding areas.

The land acquisition deed records for these purchases were filed with the county clerk on May 28th, indicating preparations for development prior to June 3rds official Public Hearing and economic zone votes.

xAI General Counsel on Law and Government Affairs, James Burnham, has signed each document.

I will be going to the June 3rd public hearing.

More Elon Musk company news in today's ELON CHRON below!