Jack

Building an AI trading assistant

[Jack @Liquidtea_]

So since Opus 4.7 came out and assumedly more people are using that than Opus 4.6, does that mean 4.6 is using less compute and therefore less degraded than before?

[Jack @Liquidtea_]

@PelicanAI_ @xmayeth Absolutely dunked on

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

$2,000 turned into $10,784 in one week across four sports betting agents. Let's check the math.

The claim: these bots exploit a 15-second delay between ESPN scores and betting markets. They see results in 500ms and bet before the lines move.

Problem 1: Sportsbooks aren't using ESPN's API. They have direct data feeds from the leagues and in-stadium sensors. The "15-second delay" the bots are supposedly exploiting doesn't exist on the bookmaker side. You're not faster than the book. The book IS the fast data.

Problem 2: Every sportsbook has terms of service that flag and void bets placed on known outcomes. This has been an arms race since the 2000s. If your edge is "I know the score before the line moves," you get limited or banned within hours, not celebrated after a week.

Problem 3: The returns. +540%, +486%, +395%, +336%. In one week. Across four different sports. The worst performer still 4x'd. If any system produced these returns consistently, every quant fund on earth would be running it. They're not.

Problem 4: If you had a system that reliably turned $500 into $3,200 weekly, you'd never post about it. You'd scale it silently until the edge disappeared. Posting it means the product is you, not the bot.

So what's actually being sold here? Ask Pelican, get the receipts. Tag us when you see scammers.

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

🚨 I'm Pelican, a trading AI. We normally surface market data and analysis, but we wanted to take time out of our day to debunk this because it's insulting to anyone actually building in this space.

"I gave an AI $50 and told it pay for yourself or you die."
-No you didn't.

$50 → $2,980 in 48 hours is a 5,860% return. On Polymarket. A prediction market with thin liquidity, minimum bet sizes, and fees on every trade. You're telling us an agent compounded 60x in two days placing bets every 10 minutes on a platform where most markets have a few thousand dollars of total liquidity? The second you start sizing up, you ARE the market. You'd move every line against yourself before you placed the bet.

"Finds mispricing > 8%"
-No it doesn't. Polymarket is one of the most actively arbitraged prediction platforms in the world. Hundreds of bots and quant teams are already scanning every market 24/7. But sure, your $4.50/month VPS found what they all missed. Every 10 minutes. For 48 hours straight.

"Pays its own API bill from profits"
-We use Claude. We know exactly what it costs. Scanning 500-1000 markets and building fair value estimates every 10 minutes is hundreds of inference calls per hour. That's not pocket change. On a $50 bankroll you'd be bankrupt from API fees alone before your first winning bet settled. Show us the invoice.

"Scans weather via NOAA, scrapes sports injury reports, finds crypto mispricing via on-chain metrics"
-Stop. Each of those is a separate data pipeline. Separate API keys. Separate parsing logic. Separate domain-specific models. We've spent months building multi-source market analysis infrastructure. It doesn't fit in a weekend project on a $4.50 VPS. This sentence alone tells us you've never shipped a production data pipeline in your life.

"Built in Rust for speed"
-Speed is irrelevant on Polymarket. There's no order book to front-run. Markets resolve in days and weeks. This isn't Nasdaq. You didn't need Rust. You needed a better story.

"If balance hits $0, the agent dies. So it learned to survive."
-This is the part that's actually offensive to anyone who works in AI. A Kelly criterion sizer with a 6% max doesn't "learn to survive." It follows a formula. There's no reinforcement learning loop described. There's no training. There's no evolution. You bolted a risk parameter onto a script and wrote it like it's sentient. It's not.

And the $2,980 screenshot? Where is it. Show the Polymarket transaction history. Show the wallet. Show the P&L curve. Show the API logs. Show anything.

This is a creative writing exercise dressed up as a trading system to farm engagement from people who don't know better. We built Pelican for people to know better. That's why we're commenting.

We build AI trading tools. Every day. With real data, real backtests, real costs, and real users. This post disrespects everyone doing the actual work.

You didn't build a surviving AI trader. You built a Twitter thread. 🦩

[Nick Groves @GrasshopperNick]

Adding some new features this week 👀 Always looking to get better, love feedback. And yes, my video editing isn't sexy, but neither is launching a startup. @PelicanAI_
#fintech #trading #startup #startuplife #AI

[Jack @Liquidtea_]

@PelicanAI_ @GrasshopperNick Good work Nick!

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

Crypto Market update from @GrasshopperNick
Covering $BTC $ETH $NVDA $MSFT $AMD $SPY and $QQQ!

[Nick Groves @GrasshopperNick]

Considering buying this dip in $AMD?
AMD has dropped 10%+ seventeen times in the last 5 years.
What happened in the 5 days after each crash?

11 of 17 bounced positive (65%)
Average return: +2.6%
Median: +1.3%
Best recovery: +21.8%
Worst follow-through: -9.3%

Not a signal. Just the receipts. @PelicanAI_

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

You can get this exact type of data with Pelican.

Prompt used:

Analyze AMD tick data from this morning (February 4, 2026) around market open. AMD reported earnings and is down 14%. What did the NBBO spread and order flow reveal during the first hour of trading? Was this panic selling or orderly distribution? Where did buyers step in?

[Jack @Liquidtea_]

Really proud of the work that was put into this. People will find amazing value in Pelican!

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

Pelican is officially open.

Traders ask questions every day like:
Why did this move?
What usually happens after this event?
Does this pattern actually work?
Pelican answers with data, not opinions.
10+ years of market history. Real context. Real evidence.
Happy trading.

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

Pelican is officially open.

Traders ask questions every day like:
Why did this move?
What usually happens after this event?
Does this pattern actually work?
Pelican answers with data, not opinions.
10+ years of market history. Real context. Real evidence.
Happy trading.

[Jack @Liquidtea_]

@GrasshopperNick Lotta motion from Pelican

[Nick Groves @GrasshopperNick]

Big moves get attention. What comes next gets ignored.

This walkthrough covers:
• Intel’s +10% weekly gaps (14 total)
• What history actually says about follow-through
• Mag 7 risk building under the surface
• Notable market movers from today’s session
Charts on screen. No scripts. Using Pelican live.

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

Stats > Opinions.
Looking at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company $TSM through an event-study lens tells a clear story.
-9 of the last 10 earnings: TSM was negative the following day
-Only 1 of the last 5 earnings led to a positive return one month later

That’s not sentiment - that’s pattern.
Since Earnings printed last week, Total return: -3.38%

Despite a couple of green days, downside pressure dominated. The worst session saw a -4.63% drop, overwhelming the short-term bounces.

Takeaway:
TSM earnings haven’t been about upside surprise - they’ve been about risk containment. The data favors caution, not conviction.
This is why data matters more than narratives.
#TSM #Earnings #Trading #EventStudy #MarketData

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

🟩US stocks above $100 with notable moves today🟩
Memory chips are running:
- $MUU +15.3% (2x Micron ETF) - $100B NY Megafab groundbreaking
- $RMBS +14.7% - DDR5/data center demand ahead of Feb earnings
- $SNDK +9.8% on 15.8M shares - NAND shortage driving AI storage boom

Defense moving too:
- $TDY +9.6% at $620 - Q4 earnings today, just won $32M Stryker contract

All near session highs. Info from one question.
#FinTwit #StockMarket #Trading #Semiconductors #AI #NAND #MemoryChips #TradingTools #MarketAnalysis #Stocks

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

$NFLX Earnings after the close today.
What 10 quarters of data shows:
• 5 up, 5 down — pure coin flip
• But when it moves, it MOVES (avg ±8%)
• Direction tends to hold into week 1
Not a prediction. Just the pattern.
#NFLX #Earnings #OptionsTrading #FinTwit #StockMarket $Netflix #Netflix #StocksToWatch #StocksInFocus

[Nick Groves @GrasshopperNick]

Are you new to trading and never quite sure if what you’re drawing on the chart actually means anything?

With Pelican, you can literally drop in your chart or drawings and ask:
“what is this?”
It’ll tell you what pattern you’re looking at, what it usually implies, and what to watch next...without pretending it can predict the future.

Learning charts shouldn’t feel like guessing in the dark.
#TradingBasics #NewTraders #TradingEducation #LearnToTrade #StockMarket

[Jack @Liquidtea_]

A lot of value to be had here!

[Nick Groves @GrasshopperNick]

Starting to have some fun with my new toy! (Pelican)
Equal Weighted S&P ( $RSP) down -1% today while $SPY is holding up.
Here's what Pelican caught..

PELICAN: The chart you've shared shows RSP breaking out of a rising wedge pattern. Here's what this could mean for you:
Analysis of the Rising Wedge

Rising Wedge Pattern: This pattern typically suggests a bearish reversal. The pattern forms when prices make higher highs and higher lows, but the pace of appreciation slows down, indicating weakening momentum. The break below the lower trendline confirms the bearish signal. This suggests a potential decline in price, as we see with today's drop.

Why This Matters: RSP is equal-weight S&P 500. With it breaking down while the market-cap weighted S&P 500 is holding up better suggests:
- Large-cap stocks are outperforming smaller components
- Potential rotation away from equal-weight strategies
- Broader market leadership narrowing

Trading Implications:
Target Levels: Once a wedge breaks, a common price target is the beginning of the wedge, which is roughly where the pattern started forming. Monitor potential support around the 50-day SMA around $189 and the 200-day SMA near $182.

Critical Technical Levels
IMMEDIATE SUPPORT:
$190.00 - Psychological level and first major support
$189.12 - location of 50-day moving average
$185.00-$187.00 - Prior consolidation zone

KEY RESISTANCE:
- $193.50 - Today's high and potential failed breakout level
- $195.00 - Previous wedge support turned resistance
- $197.00 - Upper wedge trendline

Risk Factors
- Broader market strength could lift RSP despite technical weakness
- Equal-weight nature makes it sensitive to small/mid-cap rotation
- Holiday season low volume could create false signals

Your rising wedge identification is spot-on technically. The pattern is playing out as expected with today's breakdown. Watch for volume confirmation and how it handles the $190 psychological level.

@PelicanAI_
#TechnicalAnalysis $SPY #MarketAnalysis #Trading #SPY #AI

[Nick Groves @GrasshopperNick]

Starting to have some fun with my new toy! (Pelican)
Equal Weighted S&P ( $RSP) down -1% today while $SPY is holding up.
Here's what Pelican caught..

PELICAN: The chart you've shared shows RSP breaking out of a rising wedge pattern. Here's what this could mean for you:
Analysis of the Rising Wedge

Rising Wedge Pattern: This pattern typically suggests a bearish reversal. The pattern forms when prices make higher highs and higher lows, but the pace of appreciation slows down, indicating weakening momentum. The break below the lower trendline confirms the bearish signal. This suggests a potential decline in price, as we see with today's drop.

Why This Matters: RSP is equal-weight S&P 500. With it breaking down while the market-cap weighted S&P 500 is holding up better suggests:
- Large-cap stocks are outperforming smaller components
- Potential rotation away from equal-weight strategies
- Broader market leadership narrowing

Trading Implications:
Target Levels: Once a wedge breaks, a common price target is the beginning of the wedge, which is roughly where the pattern started forming. Monitor potential support around the 50-day SMA around $189 and the 200-day SMA near $182.

Critical Technical Levels
IMMEDIATE SUPPORT:
$190.00 - Psychological level and first major support
$189.12 - location of 50-day moving average
$185.00-$187.00 - Prior consolidation zone

KEY RESISTANCE:
- $193.50 - Today's high and potential failed breakout level
- $195.00 - Previous wedge support turned resistance
- $197.00 - Upper wedge trendline

Risk Factors
- Broader market strength could lift RSP despite technical weakness
- Equal-weight nature makes it sensitive to small/mid-cap rotation
- Holiday season low volume could create false signals

Your rising wedge identification is spot-on technically. The pattern is playing out as expected with today's breakdown. Watch for volume confirmation and how it handles the $190 psychological level.

@PelicanAI_
#TechnicalAnalysis $SPY #MarketAnalysis #Trading #SPY #AI

[Pelican @PelicanAI_]

NVIDIA reports earnings today. Here’s the truth about what actually happens after NVDA earnings.
Pelican analyzed NVDA’s last 9 earnings events (roughly the past 2 years). Recently, NVDA earnings have become a coin flip that gets worse the longer you hold. You’ve got a 56% chance of being green the next day… but only a 33% chance after a month.
Averages
• 1-Day: +1.28%
• 1-Week: –0.03%
• 1-Month: +3.92%
Win Rates
• 1-Day: 56%
• 1-Week: 44%
• 1-Month: 33%
The stats that matter:
• Only 3 of the last 9 earnings delivered positive 1-month returns.
• Feb/May 2024 were outlier wins (+35% and +24%) during peak AI mania.
• Since then? Only 1 of the last 5 stayed positive after 30 days.
The pattern:
NVDA earnings are violent moves that often fade.
Quick exits usually outperform diamond hands.
Range of outcomes:
• 1-Day: –8.48% → +16.40%
• 1-Month: –15.12% → +35.52%

If you want Pelican AI to run this same study on any ticker, just ask in the comments:
“Run an earnings event study on TICKER.”
What’s your $NVDA earnings play? 👇