With CPI coming in so high, Trump has no room left to maneuvre on Iran. The US was already not replying to IRGC attacks in the Hormuz since Sept 14, now it's gonna behave even more dovish.
Safe to say Iran has won and now the next phase begins.
Governor Waller’s preferred momentum gauge for the core PCE deflator—the three-month average of annualized monthly changes—fell to just 2.0% in August.
And you still think the Fed hikes rates at the next meeting?
@RenMacLLC Another way to put it... Everyone against data centers? BUT if we give them $ 10,000 to, like, data centers... they all say yes. Therefore, everyone can actually supports them
the biggest question for me right now is, assuming global CBs do hike ~3 more times, what level of restriction will that exert? and therefore, how significant would the negative effects on labor markets and spending be?
if neutral really has risen this year, real growth can continue at a decent pace. if not, then combinatory effects of a supply shocks + rate hikes suggest a 2022 redux is possible next year.