@DoctorRazzWSOP@ScottsOnAir Every time I see these posts I about ping you to chime in and find you already here. Your like a MM i compete with. ๐ ๐ป
@Kotaku Great design. Rather good story. Incredible handling. The day they hired a micro transaction person to figure out how to monetize instead of just release quality content was the day it died.
Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.
You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.
The whole point was the rules.
The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.
After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.
For 23 years, those rules held.
Then SpaceX filed for IPO.
And the rules changed.
The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.
Except the rules used to say they didn't.
Here's the thought exercise:
If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?
Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.
A rule binds the rule-maker.
A guideline binds the saver.
You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.
Incredibly annoying.
Claude Code has cascading tool call failures over and over again when it encounters a hook. It doesn't know how to unblock itself. This is affecting all of my current sessions.
@mvandemar@GOP__Ls Fair. I had to dig further to see he was just soliciting. Bad bleed of the entire op and justifying a bait of indictment. Plenty of things to be upset about as you said.
@ArcRaiderAlerts Who? We left because PvP kept ganking us when we wanted to enjoy looting and team work. Game is not built to be PvP. TTK is odd and itโs very first shot advantaged. They should have not added it late or at all.
@mvandemar@GOP__Ls โsweeping undercover sting netted 266 arrests tied to prostitution, human trafficking and child predators.โ The lede is a bit buried but the contagion is valid. Whether is corroborated to this individual or not. I dunno. About as far as I want to trace it.
@bcherny your new harness really likes to force my hand on branch work. I really wish youโd allow internals like that to be controllable. I donโt like your nanny concepts you bake in. Very hard to fight.
@ClosingDime Except most people donโt realize kalshi takes 7% and poly 5% and even more on different markets. Contract fees are just vig by another name.
@rigatohni N=400 is still rather shallow; an interesting study more on how humans try to be right or out guess the testor which is also a part of empirical studies. Heโs right in tier 2 but blind spots are always blind spots. Edges arenโt always deep. They are overlooked assumptions.