Lord of Candy | Kaeos

A man who likes to mess with probabilities to create more likely outcomes.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@MarathonDevTeam @Cozmo23 PvP optional? Cool. Oh wait. No. No thanks. 🫣😅

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@DoctorRazzWSOP @ScottsOnAir Every time I see these posts I about ping you to chime in and find you already here. Your like a MM i compete with. 😅🍻

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@Kotaku Great design. Rather good story. Incredible handling. The day they hired a micro transaction person to figure out how to monetize instead of just release quality content was the day it died.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@fairplaygov See them flowing in on the cords. MGM. Fanatics. DK. All ambiguous language. Hope everyone forwards them.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@Loughy You know I regret it now but I should have printed and framed all of mine. :D

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@ClaudeDevs Thank you! Those weird spinups and blocked/channel corruptions ate 50% in 2 days. I was already fretting over the week. <3

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.

You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.

The whole point was the rules.

The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.

After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.

For 23 years, those rules held.

Then SpaceX filed for IPO.

And the rules changed.

The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.

Except the rules used to say they didn't.

Here's the thought exercise:

If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?

Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.

A rule binds the rule-maker.

A guideline binds the saver.

You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

Wow with Claude's bashing its head in the wall on all those tool calls and channels corrupted it ate 30% of my weekly in a day. Damn guys! @ClaudeDevs

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@bcherny @trq212 @lydiahallie I too am in this. Burning cycles and cycles here on channel corruption or these blocks.

[Matt @MattTrifilo]

Incredibly annoying.
Claude Code has cascading tool call failures over and over again when it encounters a hook. It doesn't know how to unblock itself. This is affecting all of my current sessions.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@ssigsbee @astraffon @ImawhalePM 1b notional is wild. Gg.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@haider1 The harness is causing me so much grief right now. Commits every turn burning local work stacks is wild. Wtf happened.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@mvandemar @GOP__Ls Fair. I had to dig further to see he was just soliciting. Bad bleed of the entire op and justifying a bait of indictment. Plenty of things to be upset about as you said.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@ArcRaiderAlerts Who? We left because PvP kept ganking us when we wanted to enjoy looting and team work. Game is not built to be PvP. TTK is odd and it’s very first shot advantaged. They should have not added it late or at all.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@mvandemar @GOP__Ls “sweeping undercover sting netted 266 arrests tied to prostitution, human trafficking and child predators.” The lede is a bit buried but the contagion is valid. Whether is corroborated to this individual or not. I dunno. About as far as I want to trace it.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@bcherny your new harness really likes to force my hand on branch work. I really wish you’d allow internals like that to be controllable. I don’t like your nanny concepts you bake in. Very hard to fight.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@Kotaku Looks great, bring it to PS5.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@IGN Really just like a way to fix drift and replace batteries easier. k?

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

Closed-Loops aka Data Strangulation patterns suck when you find out about them weeks after they start. Wompwomp.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@ClosingDime Except most people don’t realize kalshi takes 7% and poly 5% and even more on different markets. Contract fees are just vig by another name.

[Lord of Candy | Kaeos @Lord_of_Candy]

@rigatohni N=400 is still rather shallow; an interesting study more on how humans try to be right or out guess the testor which is also a part of empirical studies. He’s right in tier 2 but blind spots are always blind spots. Edges aren’t always deep. They are overlooked assumptions.