Rigatohni

I love prediction markets and Rigatoni noodles | $1k to $1M.

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

I just had my first 1c clickkkkk. Only 3.6k but that puts our port over 70k!!

Exactly 3 months since I started with $1k trading mentions on Kalshi.

100k soon.....

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@alch3my101 @Kalshi Legend. 10k next month king

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@bernardbulletin Bernard vs Pratt

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

One of the biggest traders i know asked every trader one simple but very not simple question.

I was the only one out of 400 to get it right…

Toon’s analysis is really intriguing in how traders over or under think when gathering alpha…

[Toon Matthew @ToonMatthewT1]

I spent the last 5 years asking 400 people a single question. It changed how I think about generating an edge in trading.

The question: Name a president that you don't think other people will name, keeping in mind that other people are also trying to name a president that others won't name.

Take a moment to answer before reading on.

The results map directly onto how I think about alpha.

Bucket the 45 presidents into 6 tiers by name recognition with Tier 1 being the most famous and Tier 6 the most obscure. The results show a clear bias toward obscurity—selections rise steadily from Tier 2 through Tier 6—with a sharp reverse-psychology spike back up at Tier 1. People favor going obscure ("Who would think of Millard Fillmore?") but many deploy maximum reverse psychology ("Washington is too obvious. Nobody will say him"). In reality, Washington and Fillmore are the two most common answers. [sorry, @dumborambo_, it is true]

The sweet spot is Tier 2: Clinton, JFK, Jefferson, both Bushes, Nixon, LBJ. Household names, but not top-of-mindnames. Out of 407 respondents, only 20 picked from this group. That is 16% of presidents, under 5% of selections. Most people are genuinely shocked to learn these are the best answers. [Maybe except for @Rigatohni, who picked the last unnamed president (George W. Bush)].

This is how I approach every market I've traded. Sports betting, options, commodities, prediction markets.

Tier 1 alpha ("Google has the best search engine," "Nvidia makes the chips") is real but saturated. The edge is gone before you arrive. Tier 6 alpha (tracking flight delays to beat sportsbooks, exotic statistical arbitrage) sounds clever but is almost always fruitless for the same reason: everyone who thinks they're being original is being original in the same direction.

Tier 2 alpha is the sweet spot. It is never complicated and does not require a Harvard PhD, but it is also never obvious enough that the crowd has caught on.

The smartest people I know have failed in trading because they couldn't believe Tier 2 alpha existed. Anything approachable, they assumed, had already been found by someone smarter. When I showed them edges that were statistically irrefutable, they called me a blind squirrel.

I used to half-believe them. But the more edges I find, the more the pattern holds. The best alpha is Tier 2. Once you see it, you'll wonder why you didn't see it sooner.

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@PredMTrader Same bro. It was all fake news. Do you even think there was a deal in the first place

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

Does anyone have that one friend who DMs you every so often “go heavy on this market”…

you ask for his thesis and you’re like “this dude has NO idea wtf he’s talking about”…

but he just keeps being right??

Markets even where they have no edge but you have a major edge.

I tailed him once, lost a shit ton. Stopped tailing him… and he’s still printing.

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@catboyautist yeah it got me brickd up

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

I paid $16 for this shit. nyc is crazy

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

$3k a day keeps the rage bets away

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@nate_frencik @FantasyFoess @Flupnolide all those losses are from sports that happened over a year ago. i dont trade sports anymore

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

pov its 2028 and this is the order book...

how rich would you be?

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@FantasyFoess @Flupnolide whats your mentions pnl?

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@Flupnolide just cause there is SIZE in the book doesn't mean its fair value.

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@FantasyFoess @Flupnolide wow you exposed me so hard lmao. I already posted about how i was at 70k and lost 35k a few days ago. your so coooool bro

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@Alxmcarthy will do in the future

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

https://t.co/S35YQixRH9

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@cambo_ranch we were getting hot. im gonna look and see how the last month has been

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@brmsxbt I think so. the community is so tiny. Kalshi just needs a way to promote it. Its hard for them because they make such little revenue off it, so its not really a focus. But If we can take it into our hands to promote it like how @locksy is doing, it could take off naturally

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@PredMTrader Last time I EVER listen to you

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@mansourtarek_ @TheGarden Did you bring your courtsiding tech for mentions?

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@mansourtarek_ @TheGarden since when did you get so much aura

[Rigatohni @rigatohni]

@shivkanthb this is terrible for humanity bro. just go on your phone