LrdPnsby

Geoeconomics and securities researcher

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

All three container ships hit Oct-13/14 link to AD Ports Group, the UAE's state port operator.

No attribution, but appears that Iran is choosing targets by owner. Why UAE? The short pipe of exchange of goods to Iran depends on UAE trade networks. Are these attacks on UAE a lever to keep flows on the short pipe?

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

Thought-provoking and apt. This less so but also comes to mind:

I to my perils
Of cheat and charmer
Came clad in armour
By stars benign.
Hope lies to mortals
And most believe her,
But man’s deceiver
Was never mine.

The thoughts of others
Were light and fleeting,
Of lovers’ meeting
Or luck or fame.
Mine were of trouble,
And mine were steady,
So I was ready
When trouble came.

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@porterstansb Both responsive to required role of press in a banana republic

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@ThrillaRilla369 Goin' Out West, Tom Waits...

[Superman @thesupermannx]

Researchers proved LLMs actually understand things.

They used "Mechanistic Interpretability" to literally look inside the hidden layers of Large Language Models.

And found that to predict the next token, an AI doesn't just rely on surface-level statistics.

It actively builds a three-tiered model of reality:

1. Conceptual Understanding” The AI spontaneously creates "features." It doesn't just memorize a word. It builds an internal, multi-dimensional concept of what that entity actually is.

2. State-of-the-World Understanding: It dynamically tracks facts. When it states a fact, it isn't just spitting out a high-probability string of text. It is actively linking internal concepts together in real-time to model the state of the world.

3. Principled Understanding: This is the breakthrough. The AI actually stops relying on memorized facts entirely. It discovers the underlying "circuits" or universal rules connecting those facts.

It learns why things happen.

The researchers documented a phenomenon called "grokking."

It's a sudden shift during training where the model abruptly stops memorizing its training data and transitions into deep, generalized understanding.

It actually deletes its sprawling memorized examples and replaces them with a compressed model of reality.

Nobody programmed these tiers. The model built them itself to survive the training process.

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@writejohnm @hxxntrr Smart money move

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@OpenAINewsroom Exceptional public relations. 10/10

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@curtis_yarvin Grotesque , true tragedy for victims and families. Question is did executive leadership allow after weighing political calculus and deciding broader strategic objectives

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@DanielSamanez3 Affirming

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@MMalodz @negligible_cap The obfuscation and omission of timely, relevant information is maybe the only conclusion that can be drawn w/ certainty. So to your point, why?

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@ScroogeCap @leevalueroach Not for the retail stockholder

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@seconds_0 100%. Since they are so corrupt, you would think a group of steward-minded patrons could control them to do the right things. The incompetence may be another matter

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@AntiquarianMuse Epstein clasd physiognomy

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@curtis_yarvin Strong medicine

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

That's just bluster, will never come to that. The guy who heads the state agency deciding the permit said this in a project press release (7 months before the application was filed!):

“This is an investment that works with our environment — not against it,” said New Mexico Environment Department Secretary James Kenney. “By taking steps such as real-time air shed monitoring for the microgrid, and a closed-loop cooling design for the data center, this investment will protect New Mexico’s resources while creating lasting opportunity for Doña Ana County families.” Source: Stack Infra press release September 15, 2025

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

Is US sovereign debt math turning self-reinforcing, and when?

1) On CBO's rates, r−g (the interest rate on the debt minus nominal growth) is −0.58pp for FY28.

At September's market rates it's only −0.120 to −0.175pp.

2) At market rates r−g reaches zero in FY2029 instead of FY2034, and crosses the +0.5pp regime line in FY2031–32.

3) Two anchors back it: a 55-year base rate (31% of years were above +0.5pp) and a quarterly trailing measure (−3.40pp at Q2).

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@rebeccaballhaus High IQ corruption. Tradecraft for how to make illicit payments invisible? Declare (in writing) that bank wire transfers involving large financial institutions leave no trace. You're then invisible and can do anything. Superpowers

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

The deficit is interest plus the primary deficit (everything except interest). So the interest share passes 100% exactly when the rest of the budget is in surplus. In FY1996 it was 224%. In FY1997 it was 1,115%. Four surplus years followed. By your logic, FY1997 was the least sustainable. That's why r-g is better gauge.

r − g (interest rate on the debt minus nominal GDP growth) and the primary balance

- On CBO's rates: FY2028 r − g is −0.579pp. Growth shrinks the debt ratio by $203B a year more than interest adds to it, so the debt is not feeding on itself.

- At the 09-30 market curve held flat: r − g is −0.175 to −0.120pp, still negative in FY2028.

- r reaches g in FY2029 instead of years later. This is the cause for alarm, not the 53%

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@LKYMM23 Rioting used to mean fighting . So a bar brawl could lead to rioting charges

[LrdPnsby @LrdPnsby]

@CathPoaster 😂