LucidTalk

A professionally accredited Polling and Market Research company operating in N. Ireland, Ireland, & the UK. Member of the British Polling Council & UK MRS.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

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[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

..Good analysis of the latest Autumn26 LucidTalk poll results, on the Red Lines podcast, with @MarkCarruthers7 joined by @SuzyJourno, @BBCGarethG and Dr David McCann...

[BBC The View @bbctheview]

Poll-axed - the latest Red Lines has dropped.
@MarkCarruthers7 is joined by @SuzyJourno @BBCGarethG and Dr David McCann to reflect on the recent @LucidTalk polling.

https://t.co/Y0tUXRxCxs

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

There isn't. All poll Cos (as I've said in the article) have the pro-NIintheUK score at the mid-late 40's%, and the pro united-Ireland (UI) scores from the mid/late 30's% to the early 40's%. So there's no difference in the pro-NIintheUK scores, and only a small difference in the pro UI scores.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

As in today's @BelTel (10/11) - a LucidTalk (LT) commentary article re. the latest NI Border polling results...

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

Full Poll Tracker of all quarterly @BelTel LucidTalk polls, from the 2022 NI Assembly election - now inc. the LucidTalk Autumn26 NI 'Tracker' poll (3,989 sample, NI representative)...

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

As in today's @BelTel (10/11) - a LucidTalk (LT) commentary article re. the latest NI Border polling results...

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@rseoighe @GalloperT @HibernianSea @BelTel We're neutral!

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@ninnythebear @long_friday @BelTel A 'standard' NI Border Poll question is the one that would be used at a real, 'live', NI Border referendum - or resemble it as closely as possible. In that case, it would certainly not say 'a united Ireland within the EU'!

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

Following the latest LucidTalk (LT) @BelTel polling (Autumn26 poll) re. a NI Border Referendum - Here is the updated LT 'Poll-of-Polls' re. the NI Border Ref. Q. There's no change in the 'running total', but a small change (in brackets) when the 'Don't Knows' are excluded. The running total is: Pro-NIintheUK 47%, pro-united Ireland(UI) 35%, 'Don't Knows' 18%. - exc. 'Don't Knows' that's pro-NIintheUK 57% (-1), pro-UI 43% (+1).

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@GalloperT @HibernianSea @BelTel But the group that's in the lead (and yes is still in the lead), are seeing their poll-scores falling - that is the essence of the article. If a football team that was 4-0 up, and now its 4-3, then that would usually mean the manager needs to make some changes.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

The Lord Ashcroft (LA) poll was about 8-9 years ago! - so it can't be included in our Poll-of-Polls table (as it only runs from the start of 2022). Plus the LA poll wasn't pro-UI, it was plurality pro-united Ireland(UI), but not a majority. The Amarach results (if you're referring to their 'European Movement Ireland' poll results) did not include a 'standard' NI Border poll Q. - their questions were based on NI rejoining the EU.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

It wasn't a 'standard' NI Border poll question for the Detail. In any case, poll results go out-of- date in a few weeks/months - those results are over 5 years old! Plus, I would suggest Unionists should be concentrating on how to increase the pro-UK results which are now down to the mid-40%'s in all the polls e.g. 45% NI Life & Times (2026), and now this current LT poll - 46%.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@long_friday @BelTel Where are these polls - I haven't seen any.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@Conor1960 @32eringobragh @clearblue84 @DanMulhall @BelTel The '55%' came from an entirely different question, and not the 'standard' NI Border Poll Q covered in the Poll-of-Polls table.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

Of course the poll was done, - it is/was a client poll, i.e. not a poll run exclusively by LucidTalk. Therefore LT have to follow client requirements for the poll Qs they want, and the flow of those Qs. That poll Q was asked in the context of other poll Qs e.g. re. the EU etc. - it therefore can't be measured as a 'standard' NI Border Ref. Q. I would also point out that this poll was carried out over 6 years ago - poll results get 'out-of-date' within a few weeks/months!

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

Yes, of course there are going to be differences in the polls (by co-incidence this is covered in a LT article in today's Belfast Telegraph). However, in ALL the polls the differences in the (pro-united Ireland) scores go into the 'Don't Knows', they don't go to the pro Union score. This pro-NIintheUK score is something that ALL the polls agree on, and it has been dropping in ALL the polls over recent years, and as is stated in the @BelTel article today, it would be better if the pro-Union camp concentrated on getting their own poll score up, instead of always concentrating on the lower pro-united Ireland poll scores.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@SimonCatRiley @SuzyJourno yes, its incorrect. Its wrong plenty of times.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@SimonCatRiley @austinshields63 @SuzyJourno That wasn't a standard NI Border poll question. - and we don't publish any of our poll results to one decimal place. So that's incorrect information.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@CatrionaKing1 @BelTel That's a separate question, - the results will be published separately later.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

More results from the @BelTel LucidTalk Autumn26 NI 'Tracker' poll (3,989 sample, NI rep. sample) - Q2b: Orange Order Parades in general - the Orange Order should be allowed to...

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

@bjacollins @SuzyJourno @BelTel We are currently enhancing the No. of our 16-18 year-old members on our panel in anticipation of the law being changed to allow 16+ years age-group to vote.

[LucidTalk @LucidTalk]

..Key analysis from Suzanne Breen (@SuzyJourno) of the NI Border Referendum poll results, out today in the Belfast Telegraph (@BelTel)...

[Suzanne Breen @SuzyJourno]

Unionism’s worst fears are edging closer: it’s just 4 points away from the unthinkable. Staying in the UK leads Irish unity only among the over-55s in @LucidTalk poll. A border poll is a matter of when, not if. And marching backwards definitely won't work.
https://t.co/NQTw9FYLDJ

[Belfast Telegraph @BelTel]

Border poll survey is a clear warning to unionists they must do more than just rely on the status quo

✍️: @LucidTalk

https://t.co/vGCH8E9pJz