Lucky305

I like picking stocks. Here to learn. This is my personal, public journal and not investment advice.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@billyvalue1 @AllVentured @philoinvestor +1 on this. Other than NMM/TEN in shipping and DQ in materials/solar, what are interesting names to you today? Gold ran up a lot.

As category chemicals and packaged food looks pretty good.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@FjordPhil I'll take the other side on this. They made 1 billion USD in Q2 alone. Will make another billion in H2.

Could end in mass dilution due to debt, it's speculative; the share price is a reflection of this uncertainty, the underlying assets print money in today's environment.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

Index delisting is pressuring $BAK. It's clear everyone is too afraid to step in. The magnitude of the shake out is surprising - because the fact that they will need some sort of restructuring was clear even before Q2 results released. Today is first day with good buying volume.

All incidcators point towards PBR/IG4 trying to get bond holders to agree to a non-dilution path, where they commit capital IF $BAK cannot get out from under it on it's own within a limited timeframe.

At current spreads they can generate $2B - $3B EBITDA. Idesa was running at 50% capacity, now fixed and can turn up to more.

Working capital draws are reversing with the PBR support. *As long as spreads hold*, the world will look much more positively for Braskem in 90 days.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@lasse108 you keep jinxing us lol

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@hodophiliac Sounds like the kind of capital injection it would need though. I’m very long the stock and hope they can get it done without extra equity now (and rather some out of the money warrants for the creditors) - but there’s a path here where they raise $1B from IG4 and PBR each

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

Makes sense to be in sky high crack spread territory - Russia has lost millions of refining capacity and few products egress from Hormuz. Meanwhile China starved their teapots from crude to keep demand down.

China has turned around so perhaps we see similar pricing levels but absolute price shifting towards crude vs. crack spreads.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@Fa_us_to @calvinfroedge @rupert1420 They talked about it in the Q1 earnings call. They are cash constraint and if they had more working capital they could increase utilization.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

Has been a great stock. Owned it for a few years now. I have them at a bit over 4x PE and 12% div yield if they keep with tradition of paying out prior years profits (using latest guidance). What assumptions do you use for the yield and PE ratio that differ from guidance?

Love your stuff btw - esp. the levered ETF arbitrage. I'm too scared to pull it off in the quantity I need to make a difference on the account but thought about it often (and see it validated thru you).

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@EivindEnd what app do you use to track individual vessels?

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@calvinfroedge Is the discord available to folks subscribed to your blog or just Marhelm subs?

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@HplNadja @AyusoValue We are currently witnessing the strongest rates in 15 years and rates going up during a time when seasonally they should be going down.

The market is screaming imbalance.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@MacroJason Could you share some of the KZ/UZ corp bonds you like? I think we both already share big positions in HSBK but I haven't really thought about the bond side.

With USD debasement in full swing, I think people overstate EM and understate DM currency risk.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

We now get more inquiries that originated from AI tools than traditional SEO. Interested in seeing how this can help us.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@whoiselibrown @montylmo @AlmostMongolian There are 380 million shares outstanding. Adding the extra million is a dilution of 0.3%. That ain't the reason it's down double digit %. It's the lackluster Mopane deal.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

Let's assume it will never get a re-rate. Between dividend and buyback yield you get 11% return plus 7% growth; back of the napkin math here that's 18% return with zero re-rate. Not bad?

Still looking into it myself (not long yet) - biggest Q to me is how realistic is the growth assumption.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@Erika_Inversora @albertrjf Expectation is $10B - $15B value - taking a 40% stake implies $5B purchase price.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

I love setups like these. Reminds me of oil in 2016 with the final blow out in 2020. And Coal in 2021. These downturns can take years longer than most expect.

I think that you'll be proven right and that the final wash out is still ahead of us in a challenging 2026 as economic and real occupancy are starting to converge, and contracts renew at market pricing.

[Lucky305 @Lucky305x]

@joeriwestland My mama always told me: If someone shows you who they are, believe them.