Jason - macro & investing

Investor in emerging market real estate, equities & bonds. In Eastern Europe since 2015. I also work with clients to access superior opportunities abroad.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Thank you for the new (and existing) follows 🫡 Sharing a bit about me.

Background

- No formal background in finance. Worked in tech startups (2015-2021). Quit during the 2021 crypto bull market to focus more on private investing.

- Was in crypto 2019-2025. Did OK and learnt a lot on how finance works in the DeFi world. https://t.co/lNZw90uLsA

- Early 30s. Lived across 3 parts of the world. A multilingual and multi citizenship 'globalist' who ironically distrusts globalism and buys into a good amount of associated conspiracies.

What I invest in now:

I'm a top down macro investor. I identify themes and countries I believe in, then select the most assymetrical investment instrument to express that view.

1. Romanian and Polish real estate: my primary position. 20%> AAR since 2018. https://t.co/CxmRVSOdT0

2. High yield fixed income: began investing after the Ukraine war started in 2022 and yields spiked especially in Eastern Europe. From Hungarian, Romanian and Kazakh sovereign debt to Uzbekistan corp bonds at 29% YTM
https://t.co/998S9n02JP

3. Global equities: concentrated portfolio on energy, shipping and Kazakhstan banking. I attribute a good amount of my high returns to date to beginners luck. Will be happy if my returns averages out at ~20% AAR overtime. https://t.co/ihlsLferU3

📩 I have a private newsletter which you can subscribe to for free. I do the opposite of spamming. I'm lazy with newsletters and sent out around 4 last year. https://t.co/2lzwSn87DN

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Wrapped up first quarter 2026 with 91.23% YTD returns on my equities portfolio.

Current holdings (not much changes since start of year):

Oil & Gas: $PBR, $VAR, $ARX.TO
https://t.co/DiBnKxHu1j

Coal: $TGA.L, $YAL.AX
https://t.co/7AzykaRR0B

Kazakhstan banking & fintech: $HSBK and $KSPI
https://t.co/C6FJ3PaBk5

Shipping (RoRo): $HAUTO, $WAWI
https://t.co/yv67OsjhF2

Chinese shipping ports: https://t.co/9nK6mgOkxd, https://t.co/dT8tFnMAdH, https://t.co/djRRVPqMID
https://t.co/B7AdQwqBhf

Got rid of small positions in $CIG and $NVO.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@Jfarmer1776 Excellent question for @AIPAC!

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Bolsonaro exiled with his Italian passport after his Brazilian passport was confiscated. Smart man who got his Italian passport by ancestry before the 2025 reforms (under the new rules, he would not qualify for Italian citizenship as it’s through his great-great-grandfather).

[Pablo Duggan @pabloduggan]

EXCLUSIVO. La declaración de vuelo

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@gust_mp Seems to have some good geopolitical ideas too based on 'pragmatismo pesponsavel' ethos

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Russian remittances = 10% of Uzbekistan's GDP. For Kazakhstan, it's 0.02%. Uzbekistan is still a much poorer country.

A structural risk for Uzbekistan is a recession in Russia or reduced labour demand, which can be triggered by a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The fundamentals of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are quite difference hence I like to own assets from both countries. $UZNF $HSBK $KSPI

[Veresen 🇺🇦🌲ꑭ @Providnik1]

Arrival of migrant workers to Russia. 2025-2026 (First half of the year)

Uzbekistan being the largest source of migrants, with 1.3 million in 2025 and 1.1 million in 2026

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Turns out LatAm has their own version of GDPR fanatics

https://t.co/FoIhKfi4iN

[Lexington @LM_Manhattan]

@pabloduggan Denunciar.
ES ILEGAL bajo la LGPD de Brasil, y la ley 25.326 de Argentina.
El número de pasaporte es un dato PROTEGIDO.
Publicarlo sin autorización vulnera la privacidad y, en el caso de menores, el interés superior del niño.
@MinJusticia_Ar
@MinSeguridad_Ar
@pabloquirno

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@mentalhedgebr @drewcrawford_ Does this mean that in Brazil, retail investors can invest in leveraged hedge funds of sorts with 'unlimited investor liability'?

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@BrianMcDonaldIE Neutral and level headed

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

https://t.co/4dJ4wjosUs

[Garage Band Hedgefund 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @GHedgefund]

Working with Brazilians in finance has taught me they are wonderful people, but extremely emotional, in the best/worst ways. Also there’s a heavy class undercurrent, and many professionals do not live in the same economic universe as their maid, even more so than in US/Europe

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

>lots of dividends flowed under the Communist and production has steadily increased 🐸 $PBR

[NW @user_northwest]

@MacroJason @GardinerIsland Immediately after the election in 2022 there was the same American bias/freakout about Lula the Communist. It was a great time to buy - lots of dividends flowed under the Communist and production has steadily increased. Strangely Petrobras became world-class.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@doitagain1940 @vizionariorj @kunley_drukpa It works similar to the UK model

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

https://t.co/NO3FLLAnqw

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

The average Chinese person is more right wing than Le Pen on race and migration. Here we have a French socialist (OP is a Mélenchon voter) getting triggered by a CCP spokesman who said it is sad that France is 'turning into a third world country'.

OP is a successful French entrepreneur and a huge Sinophile. It's funny to me how the group of Westerners who support China the most are liberals and socialists. When China is much more socially right wing than Europe's 'far right' politicians and much lower tax than Reagan and Trump.

Western socialists who support China are like Democrats who moved to Florida during covid but kept on voting for Biden. They enjoy the fruits of conservatism but refuse to acknowledge nor support it.

They don't realize a large part to the success of China is an ethnically homogeneous high IQ society where the leadership is almost entirely men. Socially very conservative and fiscally very low tax - the opposite of the likes of Mélenchon.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

What is China? It is whatever you want it to be. For LatAm Marxists, China is a socialist utopia. For Western liberals, China is an increasingly reliable international partner that 'respects international law unlike Trump's America'. For the far right, China is a well-run ethnostate. For Gen Z anime girls, China is the country of labubus and cute cigarettes.

China may be the least civilized country in the 100 IQ world but also the most pragmatic and flexible. China may lack 0-to-1 creativity but is unmatched at taking ideas that work, mashing them together and executing them at a best-in-class level. Welcome to (your) Chinese century.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Many Lula supporters say they want Brazil to adopt China's economic model. To achieve that, Brazil would need to cut social spending and pensions by 50% and cut government spending by 30%. It would need someone much more right-wing than Bolsonaro on economics.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@kunley_drukpa Brazil more or less had Chinese style socialism until 1985 when some silly metalworks replaced it with LatAm style socialism

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

The closest Brazil got to adopting China's model of state capitalism was probably under their military government. Huge state lead investment into building Brazil's energy self sufficiency and heavy industrial base (itaipu, ethanol, offshore oil) - especially under Ernesto Geisel.

Geisel also had a gepolitical vision for Brazil to be neither reliant on West or East. But to be on good terms with all major powers through 'responsible pragmatism'.

https://t.co/u3gArA26EO

[ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩 @kunley_drukpa]

Many left wing Brazilians recently began tweeting about how they wanted to emulate China as a ‘successful left wing country’. IE they wanted to copy Chinese policies to ‘fix’ Brazil but left-ishly. Chinese users soon pointed out many Chinese policies are to the right of Bolsonaro

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@GardinerIsland His fund made 285% buying $PBR bottom in 2022 - good piece

https://t.co/mWrdQNRVHn

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@RokoMijic @Landeur In the first world, voter bribes happen in the forms of stock market pump (US).

In the second world (Balkans), pot holes get fixed and some parks get built right before elections.

In the third world, you get chump change.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@ruicao Did you hire a good tax lawyer to fight the case in court?

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Those buying the Brazil $EWZ crash can look at what happened to Russian stocks when the war started in Feb 24 2022. Russian large caps down around 50% on the day. Significant recovery by first week of April.

Different context but similar in nature in that investors overestimated and panic sold a political shock in a large EM. And perhaps also similar in nature, both countries have fairly credible Central Banks that managed the situation well.

Russian recovery was driven almost entirely by domestic capital as foreign capital could not buy after sanctions. Foreigners who held Russian stocks as GDRs in London were able to trade until early March then were stuck after that.

I excluded energy stocks which went up even more due to the oil situation back then. In the comp, I included large cap Russian stocks in banking, FinTech, e-commerce, and real estate developer. All in USD.

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Brazil stocks I bought yesterday are in a small profit - around 7% with leverage and 3.5% without. Account can survive a 50% drawdown on equities and 20% on short duration fixed income. I journaled all my entry prices, click on QT chain to see it.

Below is 1 month chart of $EWZ $EWZS $BLTN $XP $USDBRL - initial plan is to take profit as prices get closer to where it was before the first round election results, where markets got over confident that Bolsonaro would win.

I don't usually enter shorter duration trades but to me this seemed like an exceptional opportunity. Also as a trial run (with smaller capital) on how to enter shorter duration 'political shock' trades in the future. Likely more such opportunities given where we are at globally right now. Maybe AOC victory in Nov 2028?

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@goc_87 Yes that’s how this app works

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Part of why X and Polymarket got the Brazil elections completely wrong is because right wing views have become the new mainstream on certain online spaces.

Local polls was showing a tight race but everyone on X and Polymarket was convinced about the result. Polymarket odds then trickled down to some investor's (knee jerk) decisions - leading to massive forced liquidation (biggest sell off since 1992 in Brazil).

A lesson in there to consume some TradFi media outside of X. I mainly use Bloomberg and have an old school daily FT paper delivery.

[teo @teodorio]

Whenever someone talk about prediction markets as being anything more than betting sites remember to show them this image

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

@Caan_Pau Mid Nov will be a decisive month for them then - earnings plus forced technical selling ends.