Luis Ferreira Población

Ingeniero apasionado de la inversión y del aprendizaje continuo. Inversión quant, de valor e inmobiliaria.Mis ideas y opiniones no son recomendaciones de compra

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@idafegonzalez Empresa de enorme calidad

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@MDBBolsa NU me parece mejor

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

Customers love the Spanish version of my course

My course turns Robinhood swing traders into professional, world class fundamental analysts

I'm building the best hispanic long-term investor community on Earth

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

$HFG CEO Dominik Richter is a massive masochist.

He has taken on one of the most complex problems on Earth and despite all odds being against him, he is succeeding.

No guarantee of success, but this guy is a hard-core, world-class CEO.

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

No es solo eso. Una empresa privada que tu fundes con capital propio paga un 25% de impuesto de sociedades. Si quieres sacar dinero de vuelta a ti de esa sociedad pagas tasa del ahorro (hasta un 27%). Sumando todo pagas más como empresario. Hablar en redes sin haber emprendido es gratis

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

Cuando tu aportas capital a una empresa, esta paga un 25% de impuestos sobre beneficios. Si quieres sacar el dinero de vuelta a ti pagas tasa del ahorro hasta un 27%. Es decir , se paga más en conjunto que por IRPF.
El no pagar impuestos hasta que no vendes se aplica a todos por igual. Sean ricos o no

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

Don't take it from me.

Take it from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett.

Selling winners early is the worst mistake an investor can make.

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@Spsk2000 @NOTFOMO Thanks for the suggestion!. I will definitely take a look

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

I have decided to considerably increase my position on $HFG after Q2 results.

At this point it is an asymmetric position. The new strategy of focusing on high value customers instead of growth at all costs is the correct one in my view. Results already showing this change. FCF in H1 2025 was ≈200m for a market cap of ≈1.2b. Management also agreed to increase their buyback program by an additional 100m.

There are risks associated but if they execute it can become a multibagger.

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

Thanks for the comments. I think you touched on a few key topics. I believe those risks are mostly priced in. The current Hellofresh offering is not for everyone and that is why the change in strategy makes a lot of sense. You can´t force a customer that focuses on price to consume a premium product or service by offering entry discounts. Once the discount disappear, so does the customer. There were plenty of customers abusing discounts.

Around 2/3 of customers have not changed their order habits after the reduction in marketing spent. So even if there are cheaper alternatives, there is clearly a market for $HFG premium offering. Management is focusing now on improving loyalty programs, depth of menu offering, 1 day delivery, personalisation and more. These are things their core customers care.

I do believe that , as the product proposition improves, so will the TAM. Current customers can help fund the development of new verticals and, down the line, maybe even a more budget-friendly RTE option that appeals to cost-conscious customers.

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

En nada espero pasarme al model Y. El LR >600km de autonomía (en papel). Las economías de escala compartidas han hecho que los Tesla sean , para mi, el mejor vehículo eléctrico en relación calidad/precio. He probado bastantes chinos.
Espero que en el futuro Elon y Europa me permitan “alquilar” mi coche las 22h al dia en las que no lo voy a usar. Deflacionario para el transporte y seguramente peligroso para muchos fabricantes

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@NOTFOMO Indeed, it is a very difficult business. Over the years, many competitors have failed or are now serving smaller markets. While this difficulty is reflected in the current price, it also serves as a strong protection against new entrants.

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@Fenmagne Indeed. He purchased 2m shares at an average price of 7 EUR (14m EUR in total).

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@Rajat_Hubli It was more like 4x

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@Lucky_Visuals @alc2022 It does allow for faster growth by enabling the development of new verticals much faster.

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

I have started a position in $DUOL which I discovered thanks to @alc2022 .

After studying the company it seems to me that it is improving really fast the content generation, its FCF generation, its DAU and the percentage of paid users. AI is speeding up the value creation

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@alc2022 100%

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

@alc2022 Gen AI will make them become more productive and generate content faster. Eventually more verticals and better margins.
Data will help them understand which content works best, thus improving the overall design of content. Here using more ML & RL

[Luis Ferreira Población @Luisferpob]

Gracias por traerlo 👍.
Te dirán que se debe a la explotación del trabajador que se traduce en unos beneficios empresariales gigantescos. Para poder debatir creo se debe analizar la evolución de los beneficios empresariales reales e incluyendo a las empresas quebradas. Hay que poder rebatir al populismo

[Quant Beckman @quantbeckman]

Hi mates! 👋🏻

[Intel Report] Jobs, rates, trends

This is part of what you will find inside:
"A significant market rotation is also underway as investors actively reduce exposure to overvalued mega-cap growth equities, diversifying into more attractively priced small- and mid-cap cyclical names. This rotation reflects heightened awareness of valuation risks and a strategic realignment with sectors likely to benefit directly from continued economic resilience.

Globally, however, trade policy continues to present substantial uncertainty. The recently announced U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement exemplifies an increasingly tactical approach aimed at recalibrating global supply chains and tariff dynamics. With a critical tariff truce nearing expiration, the outlook for global trade introduces elevated risks and potential volatility into market forecasting.

Commodity markets offer a further divergence in narrative, with gold maintaining a defensive equilibrium supported by persistent central bank accumulation, yet capped by dollar strength and elevated interest rate expectations. Silver, meanwhile, has emerged as a compelling bullish story driven by seasonality, technical signals, and relative undervaluation, possibly heralding broader shifts in macroeconomic expectations among commodity investors."