Luke Slaughterbeck

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@skaushik100 I'll go even further and say she wins by more than Baumgartner in WA-05

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@DrewSav Based

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@danielwreporter Maybe, although I don't think there's as much as you seem to think. But I didn't say Baumgartner was going to lose, just that there was a real difference between this and 2018.

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@danielwreporter Now you can argue that Powell's votes might split differently since he ran as an Indy, but I don't think you can say that the primary results in WA aren't very predictive of the general, especially when there's no tactical voting to try to boost Newhouse/JHB

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@danielwreporter In WA? Not really. The overall R/D split in the primary is almost always pretty close to the general. R's got 61% in the '24 primary, 61% in the general. 60% in '22 primary, 59.5% in the general. '20 primary 61%, 61% in the general.

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@JeremiahDJohns @duns_sc0tus This is the best argument for banning them I've heard yet

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@JustWinnerss @ECaliberSeven Dems voting tactically for Republicans to keep Sessler out

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@Chrisvance123 Baumgartner is at 47% in WA-05. He got 61% in Nov 2024. That alone should tell you all you need to know.

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@skaushik100 @MGPforCongress WA-05 will be closer in November than WA-03

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@ECaliberSeven Also a great sign for Forstag in culturally similar MT-01. Baumgarter got 60% of the vote in Nov 24

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@isilanorien Heavy Latino presence as well....

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@natsfert Don't disagree that the district is pink, or that MGP is an overperformer! But I also think that the generic ballot is D+6, and Trump's approval is 35%. Which is why all the quantitative forecasters have her heavily favored to win. Much bluer national environment

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@natsfert @RepMGP She's also running in a blue leaning environment for the first time, in a district that is shifting bluer as Clark Co grows. I'll bet the total MGP + Heinrich vote ends up at ~55%

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@JeremiahDJohns Since they're red states, is it really beneficial to try to nationalize the races? Not sure what national reporters tromping around Fairbanks is going to do to help Peltola

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@isilanorien Ultra-blue areas continue to vote ultra-blue. Many won't even have R candidates. But CDs 3,4,5, and 8 will be telling

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@drvolts Ask if they think Idaho counts as part of the Pacific Northwest

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@spokanerising Also colocating w/other arenas to get a critical mass of traffic days a la Pioneer Square

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@paolini Word count?

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@skaushik100 You're arguing that the feedback mechanism is broken, but the reality is that WA voters have moved left. They want more services! I think Wilson's election is more representative of a 'big but effective' vision of govt than another party apparatchik

[Luke Slaughterbeck @LukeSlaugh26802]

@skaushik100 I think it's hard to argue that Harrell and Durkan represent 'good governance' being turfed out. If Chamber friendly Ds want to control the local party, they need to make a viable pitch for their vision.