Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

Lutheran Husband Dad Kentuckian Demographer. Please forgive me: my tweets are often accidentally mean. @DemographicNTEL, @FamStudies Pronatalism Initiative

[Emily Zanotti 🦝 @emzanotti]

The plague started at the “Anti-Plague Research Center” which just seems like sloppy writing tbh

[Leah Libresco Sargeant @LeahLibresco]

I’m putting together a… Butlerian Jihad

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

I will tell my son when he grows up that virtuous behavior is not only good and proper and pleasing to God, but that it is also in many cases wise, prudent, and spares you certain miseries. Where virtue immiserates you this is due to evil people who hate virtuous conduct and seek to undermine it; and in that case it is more honorable and satisfying to spit in your enemy’s eye and remain virtuous than to capitulate to his vice.

Keep it zipped and you don’t get #MeToo ‘d

[David Polansky @polanskydj]

"Kids, turn off Paw Patrol right now—I need to talk to you about sexual assault"

[Michael McLean @cornoisseur]

When Illinois saved its nuclear plants it was characterized as a “bailout”.

Since passage, the “bailout” has returned $2.7 billion to ratepayers.

https://t.co/RXDmRErtIu

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

Remarkable

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle: elected Senator tonight.

Jair Bolsonaro's son, Carlos: elected Senator.

Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Renan: elected Congressman.

Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Flavio, currently a Senator: ahead of Lula, headed toward a run-off for President.

Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Eduardo: leaving Congress, in the US, facing arrest and imprisonment if he returns.

Jair Bolsonaro: imprisoned at home for 28 years.

[Matt Griswold @griswold]

It's happening. My wife told her friends how I set up a @bot to handle weekly meal planning and grocery shopping, saving 2-3 hours per week.

They lean forward. "I want that! How do I get that?"

The AI factories are pitching travel agents, but mundane convenience seems like a killer feature to usher the Instagram crowd to Muse/Bot/Dot/etc.

Most people right now "use AI" the way I use a Swiss Army knife to lift the tab on a soda can, so everything she describes next lands like "The Turn" of a magic trick.

Every Sunday, "Sylvia-bot" sends 15 meal ideas and we choose 5-7 based on the week. It knows to assign the easy meals to the nights when our family calendar shows football practice. It knows to use ingredients 2-3 times in different ways, like a chef balancing COGS and flavors. It knows the components of a successful taco night.

We had years of weekly grocery orders for training, so it knows the brands, flavors, and sizes we prefer as a family. (I wonder how long it will take others to get to this point without the archive.)

We're still working on the idea that "grape tomatoes and cherry tomatoes are interchangeable" and "don't buy berries that aren't on sale!"

In 5 minutes, we approve the plan. It does the shopping on H-E-B, double-checks the pantry assumptions (e.g. soy sauce, spices, etc.), adds the kids' usual extras, and emails a clean PDF of every recipe for the week.

At the end of each week, we log our favorite to a 'recipe book' memory for future rotations.

For now, my wife will scan the cart (another 5 minutes) and confirm tomorrow's pickup window. Soon, I expect our Tesla will do the grocery run on its own.

[David Adler @davidrkadler]

These early results in Brazil 🇧🇷 are astounding 🤯 The far-right is simply crushing in the Congress and Senate, displacing the traditional conservative sector with extremist Bolsonaristas – and all but crippling the prospects for legislative progress in the next coming years.

[Arpit Gupta @arpitrage]

This Russian lab leak points out how dangerous these facilities are, even without AI and even if this incident doesn't escalate further.

A long history of Russian programs to study and weaponize the plague.

https://t.co/AdeRcvAE7a

https://t.co/90A4pZ7Vgc

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

Minas Gerais, a little known southern fastness below Minas Ithil

[Thomas van Linge @ThomasVLinge]

Whoever carries Minas Gerais has historically always won the presidency. Watch this state to know who will be the next president of Brazil 🇧🇷

[Peter Gostev @petergostev]

I have a Continuous Learning benchmark where models attempt to learn to play chess. They are given a /goal of learning and improving playing against a Stockfish opponent in 200 games. They can choose the difficulty, take notes, whatever they like - except cheating (e.g. using a chess engine) of course.

So far the improvement in Elo has been negative for Astra. Tiny bit positive for Opus, but could also be random. I've started Astra off sooner, so it finished its 200 games already, Opus is still playing.

Site here to watch how they are doing: https://t.co/voMG7th5MS

The reason why this is interesting is that while we obviously don't have continuous learning, at the back of my mind I was thinking that maybe models can simulate it through self-scaffolding. Turns out not so much at least in this context. Perhaps it's a solvable problem and we don't need 'true' self-learning for models to learn in some way.

-------
Just a note, the idea for the benchmarks belongs to someone else, but I don't want to use their name to give this more weight without permission.

[Bobby Fijan @bobbyfijan]

This is why **declining total enrollment** is an existential issue to urban school districts and City budgets

Over the last decade, as the pop of the CITY of Austin increased by 16% ... Austin public schools enrollment fell by 18%

A tragic divergence, and financially ruinous.

[Ruben Hassid @rubenhassid]

How long did it take to go from 2% to 50% adoption in the USA:

- Cars: 15 years
- Internet: 7.5 years
- Computer: 19 years
- Smartphone: 6.5 years
- AI: just reached 2% today

[James Miller @JimDMiller]

Russia’s outbreak (plague?) reportedly came from a high-security lab. If the lab was studying natural strains, antibiotics should work. If it was engineering antibiotic-resistant bioweapons, we’re in the opening scene of a zombie movie.

Not an expert.

[Daddy Warpig @DaddyWarpig]

Sometimes It Do Be Like That

[Paul Butler @paulgb]

People who have seen The Odyssey on film, how does it rank compared to the book and the minivan?

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Trump: "I take an aspirin a day. I don't know if it works but psychologically I need it. It thins the hell out of your blood I guess. I don't know if it works or not but I've been doing it for a long time. And here I am making speeches. I like Bayer aspirin. And I take the big one. They want me to go down to the 80. I take the 386. I don't know what the hell it is. It's a monster. They said, 'Sir, you don't need that!' I said, do me a favor, I've been doing okay for 35 years. Leave me alone."

[Bunkie Perkins @BunkiePerkins]

We gotta have more golf tournaments where the options are win or enlist in the military

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

People say this, yet the sexual satisfaction data doesn’t support it!

I agree patriarchy often gave women bad sex— but largely because it discouraged women from voicing their desires, not because it made men inexperienced! The men often still managed to acquire experience!

[Insert Name Here @johnwcbragg]

@lymanstoneky That led to generations of men who, apparently, had great difficulty finding the clitoris.

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

@PhiloOfNYC My wife and I were virgins on our wedding night. It’s pretty great!

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

It should be someone else who’s also had no introduction to sex

Not joking! That’s really what it should be!

Sort of fumbling around and figuring each other out is part of the fun of youthful marriage!

[Porkchop Express @Porkchop_EXP]

Someone commented “when your first introduction to sex is porn…” but what should it be? Your parents demonstrating it to you? Someone else who’s also had no introduction to sex? A teacher in school explaining the mechanics while everyone is giggling? What’s the game plan here?