Serenity(Private)

I only use X, beware of imposters.
AI/Semi Supply Chain Analyst
Not investment advice, DYODD. Now publishing free research on Al chokepoints.

[Serenity(Private) @MAMILIPSCIOUS]

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[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

At this point I can't tell anymore if markets from $META to $MSFT are correcting because of macro.

Or just liquidity pull from $SPCX + index inclusion.

And institutions frontrunning Nasdaq 100 and other rebalancing of SpaceX...

Anyone know?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI.

Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear.

Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand...

With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others...

If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains.

Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones.

As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid.

I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today.

Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America.

Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later.

US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently.

It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains.

Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply.

People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties.

But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields.

Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity.

It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible.

Also I believe in Jensen.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

New Anthropic news looks like a potential tailwind for the Neocloud colo sector.

Such as $WULF, $CIFR, $WYFI, $HUT and others (not named yet).

As Anthropic is pursuing its first DC leases.

"The AI company has signed more than a dozen letters of intent with U.S. developers" per The Information.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now.

Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran.

This market is so volatile…

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100!

Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies…

Into the largest ones on Nasdaq

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well!

From
$ALAB: $97-> $372
$LITE: $330 -> $904
$AAOI: $30 -> $175

And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM!

This was back when I had close to no followers!

I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions.

But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now).

So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention?

But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well.

And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today.

Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers.

This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are.

(disclosure: have positions in IQE)

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Bro I still can't believe Japan's WF6 supply chain got shut down from China export controls.

Which affects $TSM, Samsung, and SK Hynix.

Are we really playing global supply chain warfare and game theory over AI supremacy?

Japan probably has the most amount of obscure monopolies, but they haven't fully been weaponizing it back yet.

So I wonder if this is the start of a slippery slope?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct.

Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now?

That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SPCX is now trading!

And it’s now over $2.15T+ MC.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The AI supremacy Wars begins.

Think a lot of the upstream supply chain bottlenecks caused by each Country export controlling each other (eg. $AXTI)

Should present some interesting opportunities in the near future.

That being said, Anthropic was getting distilled left and right in Singapore -> China and others.

Hot take, but steps like this do help preserve American dominance in AI, keeping the most advanced model at home.

I don’t think Superintelligence should be global access, since we’re starting to get into uncharted territories.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Okay my fellow Koreans, it's been awhile.

Foosung (093370, ~$1.2B MC) looks like a massive beneficiary soon.

Basically China export controlled Japan, causing their WF₆ supply chain to go down.

Meaning 25% of the world's supply required for SK Hynix, Samsung, $TSM go bye bye.

If you remember the Straight of Homuz with Oil, that's a lot.

Foosung's importance just shot through the roof given from some est. they're 10% of the supply chain?

So that number goes up, massive bottleneck for demand. Then this looks like the best pure play beneficiary outside of China (even if precursors pricing are rough).

Don't have positions, just wanted to publish an idea.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

한국 어머니들은 원래 이렇게 사기캐인가요?
어머님이 WF6의 3차 파급 효과(third-order effect)에 따른 공급망 차질을 파악하셨다니 정말 놀랍습니다.

중국의 대(對)일본 텅스텐 수출 통제로 인해,
전구체 부족 및 원가 상승이 발생하여 글로벌 공급망의 25~35%가 타격을 입게 된다는 사실을 말이죠.

게다가 후성(093370)이 SK하이닉스 같은 메모리 반도체 제조사들에게 얼마나 중요한 기업인지 짚어내시고,

이 공급망에 얽힌 수많은 기업들 중에서도 시가총액 12억 달러(약 1조 6천억 원) 규모의 이 한국 기업을, 해당 병목 현상에 투자할 수 있는 가��� 최적의 저평가된 투자처(exposure)로 정확히 발굴해 내시다니요?

진심으로 감탄했습니다.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK.

This idea is now up ~1900%…

With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions.

Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI.

Did you listen anon?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

If I had to stereotype my X experiences with markets:

China 🇨🇳: set on cloning me with AI, can only think of trades in short term timeframes from A-shares PTSD.

America 🇺🇸: bullish on anything futuristic like $SPCX, don’t care about valuations

Europe 🇪🇺: from $SIVE to $SOI, cares more about water usage than the AI buildout. Somehow can only look at past 12 months. (Belgium is cool so far), looking at you France + Sweden

Korea 🇰🇷: leveraged degens. I’ve never seen a market so volatile. Equivalent of 50x hyperliquid traders but with stock markets.

Japan 🇯🇵: somehow supportive of everything, haven’t seen any Japanese person aggressively bear post and short stocks before.

Not enough data on other places yet like Latin America, but will have some soon enough ig.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Do people in Sweden have a hard time making plans for lunch a day in advance?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

This is gonna upset a lot of people:

But TA is astrology for traders.

It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.

Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.

$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.

It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.

$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.

it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.

If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.

But for determining the actual upside... nah

People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.

It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.

Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.

So for entry points, sure you can use TA.

For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule.

"Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting .

- Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT
- Song Chuan Precision (7788)
- Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens.

All flagged as beneficiaries.

"Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology"

Source: Commercial Times

The power semi trade should be happy to hear this.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports.

Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes)

My optical positions are very happy to hear this:

From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI (lasers) / $LITE / $SIVE, and others.

Taiwanese optical players like VPEC, Landmark, and others should go brrr as well.

Just to recap: the photonics market, especially for laser companies is moreso "how much can you make" rather than how much demand is there.

InP substrates was one of the main bottlenecks affecting upstream capacity.

So if you're able to make more = more revenue.