Mark Hogan

Screenwriter, Member Writers Guild of America West, M.F.A. USC Cinema, Juris Doctor, Tech Investor * Not a Financial Advisor (Always Do Your Own Research)

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$TSSI : Why my 2026 Price Target of $20 a share is conservative for this Ai Infrastructure Play 🔥🔥

I believe a $20 price target for TSSI by end-2026 is a defensible, even conservative outcome if the company achieves the high end of its $20–22M Adj. EBITDA guidance.

Valuation Math at $22M EBITDA
• Shares outstanding: ~28.07 million.
• Target market cap at $20/share: ~$561 million.
• Implied 2026 EBITDA multiple: ~25.5x on $22M.

This is not aggressive for the setup. Here’s why it qualifies as conservative:

Why 25–26x Is a Reasonable/Conservative Multiple

1. Growth + Margin Trajectory
TSSI is shifting from low-margin procurement (lumpy, low-teens margins) to higher-margin Systems Integration (AI/HPC rack configuration, liquid cooling, testing). Q1 2026 already showed +88% YoY SI growth and overall gross margins expanding to ~15.4% despite revenue normalization.

Management has described the $22M EBITDA high end as achievable with demand exceeding guidance — implying further mix improvement and operating leverage from the Georgetown facility. This is a major boost to my confidence.

High-growth AI infrastructure services companies with proven execution often trade at 30–40x+ forward EBITDA during ramp phases. So a 25.5x multiple assumes solid but not explosive growth (e.g., continued 30%+ SI revenue growth, stable-to-improving margins), leaving room for multiple expansion if they deliver.

2. AI Infra Tailwinds & Scarcity Value

TSSI is one of the few public pure-play “last-mile” AI rack integrators. As rack densities push 100kW+ and the buildout continue to shift toward liquid cooling as absolutely essential, TSSI’s specialized integration/testing becomes a genuine bottleneck. At 25.5x, you’re paying a modest premium for this exposure compared to broader infra plays. For example right now, peer comp Vertiv trades at higher multiples with less growth torque at this stage.

3. Small-Cap Growth Precedent

Comparable high-conviction AI-adjacent small-caps with contractual visibility and execution momentum frequently re-rate to 30x+ on delivery. 25.5x leaves some room for error, embedding a bit of skepticism around concentration risk and lumpiness — making it conservative rather than stretch.

4. Buttressed by Dell Contractual Obligations & Relationship Depth

The multi-year Dell agreement provides a structural revenue/cost floor that de-risks the guidance and supports the multiple:
• Volume commitments & fixed fees cover a substantial portion of fixed costs (labor, Georgetown lease, power, debt service). This was explicitly structured to backstop the capacity expansion.
• Termination requires 180 days’ notice with automatic one-year renewals — not easily unwound.
• Deep operational integration: Ex-Dell AI/HPC leaders (CSO Matt Wallace, CTO David Hull) now at TSSI, plus Dell’s “Best Deployment Partner” recognition. The $17M CapEx support for next-gen (liquid-cooled) racks shows Dell is fully investing in the partnership.
• Downside protection: Even if component constraints (DRAM/CPUs) create volatility, the minimums provide visibility. This makes $22M more “floor-like” than a pure stretch goal.

In short, the contract turns the 99% concentration from pure risk into a high-quality compounding relationship with one of the strongest AI server players. This stability is what draws me most to TSSI as a high quality Ai infra play. And it justifies paying a growth multiple rather than treating TSSI like a distressed small-cap.

Bottom Line
At current levels (~$14.33, ~$400M market cap), achieving $22M EBITDA at a 25.5x multiple gets you to $20/share — a ~40–50% upside that feels conservative given:
• Management’s “high end / conservative guidance” language.
• Contractual floor + Dell ties.
• Improving unit economics in the AI integration segment.

Some attractive asymmetry imho 🔥

NFA (Always Do Your Own Research)

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

💯 this. Desperately clinging to the bubble narrative instead of admitting the alternative — total incompetence

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

Thought experiment:

You are a fund manager who was short AI stocks, or simply missed the entire generational AI rally.

You own 0 of the stocks that went up 500% to 1,000%.

Your investors are not happy.

The media asks if AI is a bubble.

What do you say?

Option 1: “We missed it.”

Option 2: “It’s 100% a bubble!”

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@MarkosAAIG @SixSigmaCapital Have you seen their $NBIS coverage? 😆 what a joke

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@FinXLearner Margin expansion for Nebius could push this multiple up to 14X or 15X imo BUT ONLY IF bull market macro conditions hold up (oil back down, inflation back down, possible rate cuts back on the table for Warsh)

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$NBIS : I mentioned caution at this market cap and to be careful chasing here…

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$NBIS : Euphoria Should Breed Caution

There been a lot of euphoria around Nebius stock rise from $90 just a few months ago to $240’s with catalysts like Leopold adding rocket fuel.

I am an all-in bull but I think it’s important right now to have a based take that keeps the eye on fundamentals and valuation.

A 10X ARR is a reasonably fair bull market multiple for this sector. But with rising inflation due to the ongoing war and continued oil price volatility, will this bull market be sustainable? Will interest rate hikes be on table again? Will the market demand lower ARR multiple for high beta growth?

At an 8X ARR multiple of 8B by end of year (midpoint of company guidance range) we are looking at $64 Billion MC plus $4B total for subsidiaries and you get the current share price of $246 a share at a 68B market cap.

In summary I think the stock is trading at a fair price right now. So just be cautious chasing here. If we hit the $250’s we could be seeing some froth develop…

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@EndicottInvests 🇺🇸 USA LFG

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@EndicottInvests Definitely a fun watch!! It will get ya even more pumped up

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@AnalysisOp just taking a well needed breather. Up 200% in 3 months 🔥

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@BigLehmanski True. Healthy pullback imo. The whole market was running red hot, S&P all time high. Nebius was due for a breather. 200% in 3 months is a monster run

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

I’m 97% Nebius port with a 12 month PT of $317. Sure, it might soar higher on momentum. I was writing about the Ai arms race last year as part of my thesis for broader macro support. But the market won’t ascribe additional valuation multiples bc of national defense/sovereignty theories. It will look at hard execution, balance sheet, debt, ARR growth, EBITDA margins, trajectory toward profit…

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

True. $140 all way down eventually to $70, massive fall. Don’t think it will happen quite like that again. Too much institutional support now. Over 60%. Plus you have Ron Barron and Leopold both buying very recently. I’m guessing the new floor is $170’s. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t dip below $200 again

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$NBIS : Nebius Up 210% in three months. How do you like them apples

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@IBJcrypto @wenbottom @jeremymjacquin @loonymoon5 I’ll update my PT after we get 2027 guidance (most likely on Q3 earnings call in November).

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$NBIS JUST IN: Famed Billionaire Ron Baron’s Fund Baron Capital Group initiated a position in Nebius in Q1

From Baron Capital:

“Nebius is a Big Idea with a remarkable origin story – the company was born from Yandex, popularly known as the “Google of Russia,” which founder Arkady Volozh built into a $30 billion business over 25 years with leading positions in online search, e-commerce, ride-hailing, music streaming, maps, and cloud services. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Volozh divested all Russian assets in the largest corporate exit from Russia in history ($5.4 billion), reconstituting the company as Amsterdam based, Nebius. The company boasts a world-class 1,300-strong team of engineers with decades of experience building large-scale computing systems and a vision to build a leading AI cloud business from first principles – a purpose-built vertically-integrated hardware and software stack optimized for AI workloads.

Nebius’ long-term vision requires significant resources to build the physical infrastructure and acquire customers. In the interim, Nebius is strategically and very selectively signing bare-metal GPU deals (renting the data center with the GPUs installed but no software on top of the GPUs) with Microsoft (up to $19 billion) and Meta (up to $27 billion). While there is a range of outcomes on the long-term value of GPUs in a bare-metal model (with the main concern revolving around the rapid depreciation of old GPUs as new more efficient ones are introduced), the useful life of AI accelerators appears to be longer than previously anticipated, as the economic output of GPUs (as measured by token throughput) has been increasing over time as models have improved, meaning project returns get better with age. Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis explained the dynamic on the Dwarkesh Podcast (March 2026)14: GPT-5.4 from OpenAI generates more tokens on H100s than GPT-4 did, despite being a far more capable model, because newer architectures (such as sparse mixture-of-experts) are more computationally efficient per token. The implication is that an H100 is worth more today than when it was purchased three years ago. For Nebius, this means the residual value of its GPU fleet after long-term contracts expire could be substantially higher than depreciation schedules assume. The rapid growth in AI-demand has also driven H100 one-year rental prices higher by approximately 40% from $1.70 per hour in October 2025 to $2.35 per hour by March 2026 (SemiAnalysis, March 2026),15 even as NVIDIA’s newer Blackwell GPUs entered the market. In our view, as long as incremental AI token demand exceeds the token supply enabled by the new chips produced in a given year, older GPUs retain – and can even gain – value (as long as token throughput increases over time as models improve – despite an increase in intelligence). More importantly, these deals function as a quasi-financing mechanism for the AI cloud buildout. Meta's deal in-particular provides access to investment grade borrowing costs with no equity dilution, while acting as a backstop customer if enterprise demand for the AI cloud doesn't materialize on schedule.”

At today's price, we are essentially buying a contracted bare metal business and a portfolio of valuable stakes at a fair price, and getting what could become a very big idea, as one of the world's next great AI cloud platforms with a world-class Founder/CEO and a team of engineers who have succeeded before at an attractive entry point.

We have conviction in Nebius' ability to build a large AI cloud business. They are leading the neocloud space in building a full suite of software offerings on their platform, much in line with what the big three hyperscalers have built for cloud workloads, i.e., multi-tenant compute, unified storage, inference-as-a-service, and security certifications, the kind of platform depth that took incumbents years to assemble.”

https://t.co/Hk6tSP47bM

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

@EndicottInvests Nate this is exactly what I was saying a couple days ago. Caution above $240 in the short term.

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$NBIS : Euphoria Should Breed Caution

There been a lot of euphoria around Nebius stock rise from $90 just a few months ago to $240’s with catalysts like Leopold adding rocket fuel.

I am an all-in bull but I think it’s important right now to have a based take that keeps the eye on fundamentals and valuation.

A 10X ARR is a reasonably fair bull market multiple for this sector. But with rising inflation due to the ongoing war and continued oil price volatility, will this bull market be sustainable? Will interest rate hikes be on table again? Will the market demand lower ARR multiple for high beta growth?

At an 8X ARR multiple of 8B by end of year (midpoint of company guidance range) we are looking at $64 Billion MC plus $4B total for subsidiaries and you get the current share price of $246 a share at a 68B market cap.

In summary I think the stock is trading at a fair price right now. So just be cautious chasing here. If we hit the $250’s we could be seeing some froth develop…

[Mark Hogan @MB_Hogan]

$TSSI : When the Bear Argument is also the Bull Argument

One of the most often cited Bear arguments I’ve seen for TSSI is the inherent risk of 99% customer concentration with $DELL

But this is just as easily reframed as the bull argument for a few reasons:

1. Leadership: TSS connections with Dell has created top managerial expertise with Ex-Dell AI/HPC leadership now inside TSSI (CSO + CTO). TSS has been designated “Best Deployment Partner” recognition from Dell. This kind of leadership means TSS isn’t a replaceable vendor — it’s an embedded operational partner

2. Ai Network : Dell is a rock solid customer who has proven to be indispensable to the Ai infrastructure buildout. Look at their recent multi billion dollar deal with $IREN. Success with Dell will open the door to a flywheel of business that compounds with the exponential growth of the buildout. And with such a key partner comes the network of relationships for expansion. The new $17M Georgetown facility will be focused on even more sophisticated integration of the setup including connecting liquid cooling.

3. Multi Year Deal: Dell provides a floor with guaranteed minimum revenue on multi year deal. It has volume commitments and fixed fees that were explicitly structured to support the Georgetown buildout and give TSSI downside protection. The $17M CapEx request from Dell for next-gen racks (including liquid cooling integration) shows the relationship is evolving, not maturing into commoditization. This is exactly where the higher-margin, higher-value work sits. This allows investors to be cautiously optimistic about further upside. On Q1 Management has already indicated confidence in achieving the upper end of the EBITDA of $20-$22 million.

NFA : Not Financial Advice. Always Do Your Own Research