Suhail Mohammadi

[SAYGIN TRADER @saygintrader]

A Different Perspective on the Bitcoin Bear Market: Where is the Macro Bottom? 🔍📉

To truly understand Bitcoin cycles and bear markets, we must always look at the data from a macro perspective. This time, let's use the historical reliability of moving averages to base our bottom expectation on a mathematical foundation.

Under normal circumstances, when the price reaches the 200-Week Moving Average (Yellow Line) during a Bitcoin bear cycle, a massive accumulation phase begins for whales and long-term holders (HODLers). However, looking at the last two major bear cycles, we see the price actually deviated below this average.

🔹 In 2020, the price dropped below the 200W MA, found pinpoint support exactly at the 300-Week Moving Average (Blue Line), and initiated its massive bull run toward $69,000. 🔹 In 2022, the selling pressure was so severe that the price fell below the 300W MA as well, forming its ultimate macro bottom approximately 15% below this line.
What Does the Current Data Tell Us? 📊

History doesn't repeat itself, but in financial markets, it certainly rhymes. Looking at the chart today:

The 300-Week MA is currently sitting exactly at the $53,900 level.

If we apply a 15% deviation/drop below the 300W MA, just like we saw in 2022, the mathematical value lands perfectly at $45,000.

This data flawlessly aligns with the bottom target I have been expecting and shared in my previous macro analyses. Technical structures, moving averages, and the deviation ratios of past cycles are all pointing to a single zone.

💬 What are your thoughts? Will this mathematical harmony of historical cycles play out, and will $45,000 be the ultimate bottom of this bear market?

#Bitcoin #BTC #MacroView #TA #Crypto

[SAYGIN TRADER @saygintrader]

EURUSD 4-Hour (4H) Chart Analysis 📉

Our main directional bias remains the same for the new week: we are still looking for shorts. 🐻

Game Plan:As shown in the chart the price might provide a short-term pullback after sweeping the 4H liquidity or reacting from the 4H Order Block (OB). Once this scenario plays out, we will drop down to lower timeframes (LTF - 15M and 1H) to hunt for new short setups and entries with proper confirmation.
#EURUSD #Forex #SMC #Trading #PriceAction

[Saygın Trader @trsaygintrader]

Ethereum Orta ve Uzun Vade Beklentileri: Dip Neresi? Nereden HODL Yapmalıyız? 🔍📉

Ethereum yatırımcılarının aklındaki en büyük soru: Düşüş nerede bitecek? Grafikte görebileceğiniz üzere, stratejimizi iki farklı zaman dilimi ve yatırımcı profili için ayırmamız gerekiyor.

📌 Kısa Vadeli Fırsatlar (Trader'lar İçin):

Ethereum şu an bulunduğu seviyelerden veya özellikle 1.385$ seviyesinin altındaki likiditeyi temizledikten (sweep) sonra geçici bir tepki yükselişi (relief bounce) gösterebilir. Bu olası sıçrama, kısa vadeli al-sat yapanlar için güzel trade fırsatları sunacaktır.

🛒 Makro Dip ve HODL Bölgesi (Uzun Vadeciler İçin):

Kısa vadeli tepkiler gelse de, bu ayı döngüsünün asıl ve nihai dibinin 1.000$ - 1.235$ bandındaki ana talep bölgesinde (Demand Zone) oluşacağını düşünüyorum. Gerçek bir uzun vade (HODL) çantası toplamak için beklediğim ana seviye burası.

⏱️ Zamanlama Beklentisi (Macro View):

Fiyatın bu nihai dip bölgesine ulaşmasının ve makro dip yapısını tamamlamasının 2026'nın 3. çeyrek sonu veya 4. çeyrek başı (Eylül - Ekim dönemi) civarında gerçekleşmesini bekliyorum.

#Ethereum #ETH #HODL #Trading #TeknikAnaliz

[Saygın Trader @trsaygintrader]

URUSD 4 Saatlik (4H) Grafik Analizi 📉

Yeni haftada da ana yönümüz belli: Short aramaya devam ediyoruz. 🐻

Oyun Planı:Fiyat, 4 saatlik likiditeyi temizledikten veya grafikteki 4H Order Block (OB) bölgesinden destek bulduktan sonra kısa bir tepki yükselişi (pullback) yapabilir. Bu senaryo gerçekleştiğinde, alt zaman dilimlerine (LTF - 1H ve 15M) inerek konfirmasyon ile birlikte yeni short girişleri/kurulumları arayacağız.
#EURUSD #Forex #SMC #Trading #PriceAction

[Suhail Mohammadi @MHMDISUHAIL]

400$ Drope in just 30m!!!

PUMP-DUMP ERA in #GOLD

[Shining Science @ShiningScience]

🧠 MIT recently completed the first brain-scan study on ChatGPT users—and the results are deeply revealing.
Rather than boosting brain function, prolonged AI use may be dulling it.
Over four months of cognitive data suggest we might be measuring productivity all wrong ⤵️

In MIT’s study, participants had their brains scanned while using ChatGPT.
→ 83.3% of users couldn’t recall a single sentence they’d written just minutes earlier.
→ In contrast, those writing without AI had no trouble remembering.

Brain connectivity dropped sharply—from 79 to 42 points.
→ That’s a 47% drop in neural engagement.
→ The lowest cognitive performance among all user groups.

Even after stopping ChatGPT use in later sessions, these users showed continued under-engagement.
→ Their performance remained lower than those who never used AI.
→ This suggests more than dependency—it’s cognitive weakening.

Beyond the scans, educators flagged the writing itself.
→ Essays were technically solid, but often called “robotic,” “soulless,” and “lacking depth.”

Here’s the paradox:
→ ChatGPT makes you 60% faster at completing tasks…
→ But it reduces the mental effort required for learning by 32%.

The top-performing group?
→ Those who began without AI and added it later.
→ They retained the best memory, brain activity, and overall scores.

Using ChatGPT can feel empowering—but it may quietly offload your thinking.
→ You gain speed, but lose engagement.
→ You get answers, but stop learning how to think.

The takeaway isn’t to avoid AI—but to use it intentionally.
→ Use it to assist, not replace your mind.
→ Build cognitive strength—not dependency.

MIT’s early study on AI and the brain lays out the stakes. The way we use these tools matters more than ever.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Ray Dalio says 2025 is like the 1970s and investors should "hold more gold than usual."

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Happy FOMC day.
Let's get this party started.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

Global finance changed in October 2023 and few people noticed.

And if you're an investor, you better know exactly what I'm talking about or you might make a huge mistake.

Gold was completely flat between August 2020 and October 2023.

But since then? It's up 95%.

Bitcoin paints a similar picture.

By October 2023, BTC was showing signs of life after the 2021 meltdown.

But since the exact same date that gold took off, BTC has gained 313% in a controlled, methodical manner.

You need to be asking yourself one question: WHY?

As gold is breaking out towards new highs, lots of Bitcoiners are waiting for one last pump to sell before riding off into the sunset for the bear market.

But before you make any decisions... You need to understand what happened in October 2023.

That was when Janet Yellen and the United States Treasury tacitly admitted that they could no longer fund budget deficits with regular long-term debt issuance.

And so, since October 2023, the US has been funding an increasing amount of its deficit spending with short-term treasuries because that's the only thing investors were willing to buy.

Everyone wanted t-bills, but no one wanted to get stuck holding long term bonds.

And why would you? As rates go up, the value of those bonds collapse.

Silicon Valley Bank learned that lesson the hard way.

But with T-Bills, you aren't exposed to the same risks because you aren't locking capital up long-term.

So the reason Gold and Bitcoin have been up tremendously since October 2023 isn't just because of "cycles."

They're up because the market realizes that the sovereign debt bubble is reaching it's natural conclusion.

Shifting debt issuance to short term T-Bills was an admission that there's not enough demand for long term treasuries.

If they continued to sell the standard amount of 10, 20, and 30 year bonds, government bond yields would increase to unsustainable levels.

And the US would be functionally insolvent.

Historically, that means a sudden currency devaluation.

In which case, hard assets win the most.

That's exactly where we're at today.

So if you're wondering what the next catalyst for Bitcoin is going to be...

It's not microcaps adopting BTC, or even the Trump family buying more BTC.

It's the same catalyst that has added $9 Trillion to gold's market cap in less than 2 years.

It's trillions in capital fleeing the sinking sovereign debt ship by hopping into the gold and orange life boats.

We are no where close to the end of this trend.

In fact, we are closer to the beginning than the end.

However, when the crisis point comes, history tells us that currency devaluations happen suddenly.

Nobody knows when it will come.

But when it does, you'll do well if you have the majority of your wealth in assets that cannot be seized or debased.

[Startup Archive @StartupArchive_]

Brian Armstrong explains how he built Coinbase on nights and weekends while working at Airbnb

Brian first advises those who are currently employed to not build your project on company hours or on your company laptop:

“If you build it on company time or on the company hardware, the company probably owns the IP.”

Then he describes his schedule for working on Coinbase while still working full-time at Airbnb.

“I would often work [at Airbnb] until 7pm. I’d come home, eat dinner, and then I would work from 8pm to midnight. I would do that maybe 3-4 days a week on weekdays. And then on the weekend I’d work Sunday afternoon for 7-8 hours.”

Brian did this consistently for about a year and a half until Coinbase was far enough along for him to get seed funding from Y Combinator.

“It sucked. I mean I was tired after the full day of work [at Airbnb]. But this is where determination comes in… At that moment in time, I was in my late 20s, and I was like, ‘I really want to try to build something important in the world.’”

When asked how he maintained friendships during this time, Brian replies:

“I was pretty intense about it. I would say I sacrificed friendships for it. It’s not like I was just never responding to people, but I’ve seen this happen to various people. They get to a certain point in their life. Sometimes they turn a certain age where they thought they would have more done by then or maybe someone in their family passes away and they’re like, Oh my god, time is finite. It’s precious. And something happens where they’re like, ‘I’m going to get this done, no matter the cost.’”

Brian tells those out there who might be in a similar situation:

“Go hard at it. Finish your book. Launch your thing. Just start doing stuff - and even if you don’t know what to do, just do anything, because action will produce information and it’ll help you get to the right thing.”

Video source: @StevenBartlett (2022)

[Suhail Mohammadi @MHMDISUHAIL]

There should always be a careful balance between freedom and restriction. Absolute freedom, while appealing in theory, can lead to psychological confusion or instability if individuals are not mentally prepared to handle the vast range of possibilities it brings.

[Mahfi Eğilmez @mahfiegilmez]

Bundan 10 yıl önce Hürmüz Boğazı'nın kapanacağına ilişkin bir dedikodu çıksa petrol fiyatı uçar, altın yükselir, dolar düşerdi. Şimdi dedikodudan çok öteye şeyler olsa da etkiler daha sınırlı kalıyor. Piyasalar artık bu tür gel gitlere, şoklara, dur kalklara o kadar alıştı ki bir çeşit muafiyet edindi. Etki olmuyor mu, oluyor. Mesela petrol fiyatı yükseliyor ama eskiyi hatırlayarak yorum yapanların tahmin ettiği gibi 100 dolara ulaşmıyor. Çünkü piyasalar, bu tür gerilimlerin uzun sürmeyeceğini ya kısa sürede çözüleceğini ya da bu haliyle askıda bırakılacağını artık öğrendi. Ben buna "piyasa aldırmazlığı" adını vermiştim. Bu aldırmazlık piyasadaki fiyatları, alış verişi anormal değişikliklerden bir ölçüde koruyor. Yine de işin içinde Trump olduğunu unutmamak gerekir.

[Sanjeev S @TradingInTheNow]

Traders don't work for a living.
They take risks.

That means your time has to be managed completely differently.

Being on the sidelines and preserving capital in low-quality conditions is a position.

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Me watching a 15 year old kid make $25 million on Trump coin while I wake up at 6am to go to work

[Josef @joseftrades]

At which stage are you in your trading journey?

[Suhail Mohammadi @MHMDISUHAIL]

@SirPickle_ +2R.
Entry after CPI

[Umar Ashraf @UmarAshraf]

Becoming a better trader is simple. Follow a consistent process. Example:

- Prep 30 mins before market opens/ or when you start trading your session

- Write out your thought process for the day. Could be your levels, scenarios you believe will happen (it’s okay to be wrong that’s the point)

- Have daily max loss amounts set, time periods you’re allowed to trade, max size in place. Basically have rules and follow them.

- execute

- compare execution to game plan and do a full end of day write up on it

- did you follow game plan? If not why? If you made adjustments then were they good adjustments? Any new information came to the market? Did you follow your risk settings? Did you execute will? Did you miss anything? How off was your game plan scenarios to what happened

Refine. Learn. Repeat.

You will automatically become a 10x better trading doing this —> Every. Single. Session.

I have over 1000+ notes in @TradeZella of my sessions and I religiously do daily write ups/ recaps. Even 11+ years later.

Start even with a piece of paper. Just start.

[Mahfi Eğilmez @mahfiegilmez]

Piyasalarda Japonya Etkisi. Yeni yazım:
https://t.co/QA3bAvyrDd

[Suhail Mohammadi @MHMDISUHAIL]

@Brainsofweb3 https://t.co/q3vZQ89nbF