Maik Wolters

Macroeconomist at @kieluni, @kielinstitute, @IMFS_Frankfurt, @ifo_Institut.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

I have been posting repeatedly on X about the extraordinarily fast collapse of births across the planet: in rich and poor countries, in fast-growing and slow-growing economies, in religious and secular societies, under right-wing and left-wing governments, with high taxes and with low taxes. The pattern is universal.

I knew this trend would continue. Still, the figures released this morning left me genuinely speechless. China’s government announced on Monday (see screenshot below) that births in 2025 fell to 7.92 million, a staggering 1.62 million fewer than in 2024, and that the total fertility rate has dropped to 0.93.

Few economists have been more forceful than yours truly in arguing that births are collapsing, yet even I was surprised by these numbers. I was forecasting around 8.5 million births, not 7.92.

To put this into perspective: if China could somehow sustain 7.92 million births per year from now on, its population would eventually stabilize at roughly 625 million, far below today’s 1.405 billion. In reality, as smaller cohorts reach childbearing age, births will fall well below 7.92 million. Hence, 625 million is a very generous upper bound, even under implausibly optimistic assumptions about life expectancy.

Put differently, there were fewer births in China in 2025 than in 1776, the year the United States declared independence.

I am still trying to process these numbers. This is the defining issue of our time.

[Klaus Adam @klaus_adam]

Im #Bundeshaushalt 2026 werden 33,3 % aller veranschlagten Steuereinnahmen in die #Rentenversicherung fließen. (Ifo-Studie, Link unten).

Kein Wunder revoltiert die junge Generation!

[Maik Wolters @MH_Wolters]

@bornecon @MatthiasMeier1 @EconUniMannheim @dfg_public Herzlichen Glückwunsch!

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

Extremely frustrating that all of the lessons of the past (e.g. the reason for high rents is housing scarcity, rent control creates more scarcity and makes the housing problem worse) have to be painfully learnt again.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where gas storage levels are rising far too slowly ahead of winter. Currently, tanks are just 46% full – 21ppts below 5y avg.
Gas prices have already surged to over €40 per megawatt hour, making it more expensive – and more difficult – to top them up in time.

[Maik Wolters @MH_Wolters]

@PatrickNuess @JRuhose @kieluni Herzlichen Glückwunsch!

[Christian Lessmann @econ_lessmann]

Preise wirken!
https://t.co/aSeMdRm85F

[Maik Wolters @MH_Wolters]

@GoedlHanischIsa @nd_econ Congratulations.

[Guido Baldi @baldi_guido]

Mario Draghi has always been a clear and impressive thinker! His piece in the Financial Times is highly recommended.

Forget the US — Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself:

High internal barriers and regulatory hurdles are far more damaging for growth than anything America might impose

"The IMF estimates that Europe’s internal barriers are equivalent to a tariff of 45 per cent for manufacturing and 110 per cent for services. These effectively shrink the market in which European companies operate: trade across EU countries is less than half the level of trade across US states. And as activity shifts more towards services, their overall drag on growth becomes worse."

https://t.co/XSpjR99Nf2

[Ben Moll @ben_moll]

Interested in doing an economics PhD and fascinated by international economics? If so, check out this new PhD program by @kielinstitute

[Benjamin Born @bornecon]

Heading to Munich for the 14th ifo Conference on #Macro and #SurveyData! Thrilled to co-organize this fantastic event. Excited for two days filled with cutting-edge research—and maybe a Bavarian beer or two. 🍻 @ifo_Institut @CESifoNetwork #EconTwitter

https://t.co/YAi5TG4J7p

[Maik Wolters @MH_Wolters]

@bornecon @cepr_org Congratulations!

[Maik Wolters @MH_Wolters]

@PatrickNuess @JRuhose @friedr_j @natewilmers @kieluni Herzlichen Glückwunsch!

[Kai Carstensen @CarstensenKai]

Teil 3 unserer öffentlichen Reihe zur Ukraine, diesmal auch per livestream: https://t.co/0oskUm4kaZ. 26.11. um 18 Uhr.
Vorträge:
The Ukraine Support Tracker von Ivan Kharitonov (IfW) Support for Ukraine: the political implications in Germany von Prof. Dr. Christian Martin (CAU)

[Kherson Kiel @KhersonKiel]

Wir freuen uns, Ihnen die Ringvorlesung Ukraine ankündigen zu dürfen, die im November und Dezember an der @kieluni stattfindet. Wir laden Sie herzlich ein, an den Vorträgen teilzunehmen, und freuen uns auf Ihren Besuch.

[Andreas Peichl @APeichl]

We are hiring at @ifo_Institut:
4 6-year-Positions
including "Big Data Economics": Researchers in any field of economics who leverage state-of-the-art machine learning or causal inference methods and/or use innovative (incl large) datasets
https://t.co/4W5do6lmh8
#EconJobMarket

[Jens Ruhose @JRuhose]

Jobs, jobs, jobs!! 👇

[Jens Ruhose @JRuhose]

Job alert! 👇

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

Stunning story by @JohnHCochrane from an EU economics conference on the EUs self-inflicted wounds. There is hope. Europe is waking up to this insanity.
https://t.co/qD9NW52yEq

[Kiel Institut @kielinstitute]

🚨 We're hiring! The #UkraineSupportTracker team is looking for a Junior Researcher to focus on data collection, management, & processing related to Ukraine support & the economics of security. 📊🌍 #DataJobs #EconTwitter @Ch_Trebesch
👇 https://t.co/2XfoI7WsUQ