缠缠PP

打酱油路上对咸甜苦辣的思考
不构成任何投资建议！

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

2023，愿每一位我们深爱的亲人，朋友都能像Munger 一样至少活到99！
我们因追求梦想和更好的生活而相识，2023年祈求一起更自律，更耐心，更少的错误决策，更少的胡乱操作投资。
2023上半年会是艰巨的，有跌破去年10月低点的大概率。
但是也为2023 下半年布局创造好时机！

[Dividend Growth Investor @DividendGrowth]

Charlie Munger turned 99 today

Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway is a fountain of knowledge and wisdom

I have compiled 99 Charlie Munger quotes in celebration for his birthday:

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

SYM: 我个人愚见：它是仓库自动化pure play，已与沃尔玛等大客户深度合作，有实际营收和订单 backlog，机器人+AI 仓库自动化是当前落地最快、现金流最稳的子领域，增长确定性高，同时受益于劳动力短缺和供应链重塑。有执行风险，可以留意关注。

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

10 WAYS TO PLAY ROBOTICS IN 2026

1. $TER tests AI chips & owns the cobots through Universal Robots
2. $NOVT precision photonics & motion inside surgical & industrial robots
3. $OUST eyes & perception for physical AI machines that need to see & map physical world
4. $HIMX provides vision & display chips that help robots process images, depth & sensor inputs at edge
5. $AMBQ low power edge AI layer for robots & devices that need intelligence without burning massive amounts of energy
6. $ON becomes physical AI edge stack after acquiring $SYNA combining power, sensing, connectivity & edge AI for robotics
7. $SYM warehouse automation pure play using robotics & software to redesign how goods move through fulfillment centers
8. $VPG sits in force sensing & precision measurement layer that helps robots understand pressure, weight & real world movement
9. $TSLA humanoid platform bet with Optimus combining custom hardware, AI inference, autonomy software & real world manufacturing scale
10. $CCXI gives public market exposure to Agility Robotics which is one of clearest pure play humanoid robotics companies through its Digit warehouse robot

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

Jaya 指出：当前 AI 估值中“人才溢价”的脆弱性，以及监管作为“价值重置”工具的潜力。
但 AI 的迭代本质更接近软件而非药物。这对投资者而言是高不确定性、高不对称的机会：正确押注监管路径和 moat 演化，能产生巨大 alpha；
错判则可能错过下一波增长或持有“被监管锁定”的落后资产。

[Jaya Gupta @JayaGup10]

The researchers getting rich off Anthropic secondaries are cheering for the thing that would make them ordinary employees again.

Right now they are paid like NBA free agents because they are the labs’ most visible moat. The frontier labs are struggling to hold a durable, ownable edge: models get copied, undercut, or matched by cheaper and open rivals within months. So the real advantage lives in a few hundred people who know how to push the frontier, and who can also leave, raise billion-dollar, double tranched seed rounds, and compete directly.

That is why the labs are paying them not to leave. with secondaries as retention payments, mission / fear, etc...

Pharma shows where this can end up. In a drug company, the value does not belong to the scientist. The scientist can be paid well, but not hundreds of millions over three or four years, because the durable value sits in the patent and the FDA approval. The researcher who discovered the molecule can quit tomorrow, but the company still owns the asset.

A regulatory moat would do something similar for AI labs. It would move value from the person to the institution.

Regulation is a wall against three threats at once: competitors, open source, and the labs’ own researchers. The researchers getting rich off secondaries today are, by cheering the regulated future, voting to end the exact leverage that made them rich.

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

🤩

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

A world of amazing abundance. 💫

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

👍👍

[Leto Bao @leto_bao]

对于普通人怎样投资，我认为分几种情况：

1. 家里上有老下有小还背了房贷车贷，每个月基本上存不下来钱，想通过投资改善生活，这个时候你绝对不能投资，当务之急是先给生活降杠杆。

2. 没什么经济负担但是也没什么存款，先提升赚钱能力。

3. 有一定的存款（以 PDT 门槛 $25K 为准），但是没接触过投资，或者对投资完全不感兴趣只想赚钱，直接买指数，绝对不要碰个股。

4. 投资真正适合的人：有一定存款，对投资充满热情，有学习能力，首要目的不是为了赚钱，而是把投资当成策略游戏来玩，把 $ 当成游戏币，享受交易的乐趣，不断打怪升级爆金币，再用爆到的金币买更多的工具、信息源，提升认知加速赚钱，有目标有真实世界反馈，这比任何策略游戏都有意思。

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

一波非常厉害的涨价潮👀😥

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Tim Cook, who told The Wall Street Journal that the jump in costs was unlike anything he had seen “in any area in over 40 years.”

Biggest price jump in anything I’ve ever seen too. https://t.co/aypJGgssnN

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

👍👍👍💪

[World Insights @World_Insights1]

🇨🇦 Canada FIFA Men's World Ranking

2000 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 85th
2001 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 94th
2002 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 90th
2003 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 88th
2004 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 89th
2005 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 83rd
2006 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 94th
2007 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 94th
2008 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 86th
2009 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 63rd
2010 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 76th
2011 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 76th
2012 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 83rd
2013 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 112th
2014 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 104th
2015 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 102nd
2016 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 120th
2017 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 95th
2018 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 79th
2019 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 72nd
2020 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 72nd
2021 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 40th
2022 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 53rd
2023 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 48th
2024 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 31st
2025 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 30th
2026 ➜ 🇨🇦 FIFA Ranking: 28th*

*Current ranking as of June 2026; year-end ranking not yet available.

Source: FIFA

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

科技基础设施周期（如电信、光纤、云计算）初期常伴随重金投入，后期带来高回报。平衡表强劲的公司（低净债务、充裕现金）有能力通过债务/股权融资桥接过渡期。

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

At a very hi level, free cashflow = operating cash flow - capex.

The hyperscalers are deep into an investment cycle so they are consuming their operating cash flow. It is incorrect to look at this and assume their FCF has collapsed because operating cash flow has collapsed.

It hasn't. Capex has exploded.

This cycle should be eerily reminiscent of Amazon's approach over the past 20 years when they did the same thing related to e-commerce and AWS buildout. The question should be what moat did Amazon create at the end of that cycle and what kind of moat could the hyperscalers build now related to AI after this cycle?

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

好像全场静默都在等他入球

[Mathias @MathiasChu]

Podemos charlar de cómo recibe la pelota en el segundo gol?

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

😂😂👍👍

[FOX 4 NEWS @FOX4]

2 FOR MESSI!!!

Lionel Messi slots home his second goal of the game and the FIFA Fan Festival in Dallas is LOVING it.

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

他就是信念，传奇！

[Unpopularfootyx @Unpopularfootyx]

🚨🎙️ ZLATAN IBRAHIMOVIĆ ON LIONEL MESSI'S INFLUENCE ON ARGENTINA AFTER THEIR WIN OVER AUSTRIA:

“I'm obsessed with watching Messi.

Not because he's my friend.

Not because of nostalgia.

Because after all these years, I'm still trying to understand how one player can control a football match without touching the ball every minute.

I watched Argentina today and the first thing I noticed wasn't the scoreline.

It was the way Austria reacted whenever Messi moved.

One step to the left, defenders follow.

One drop into midfield, the entire shape changes.

One glance over his shoulder panic.

That's not football.

That's psychological warfare.

And that's why I laugh when people reduce him to goals and assists.

They don't understand what they're watching.

Messi isn't just Argentina's best player.

He's Argentina's system.

He's their confidence.

He's their belief.

He's the reason every teammate walks onto the pitch thinking the impossible is possible.

People ask me about the GOAT debate.

What debate?
Seriously.

What debate?

For me, there isn't one.

The debate exists because television needs content and social media needs arguments.

When I watch football, I don't see a debate.

I see Messi.

Then I see everybody else.

That doesn't mean other legends weren't incredible.

It means I've never seen another player influence a match, a team and an entire generation of football the way Messi has.

And today was another reminder.

He didn't need a hat-trick.

He didn't need to score from 40 yards.

He just needed to be Lionel Messi.

And suddenly Argentina looked like a completely different team.

That's greatness.

Not when everything depends on you.

When everybody becomes better because you're there.

I've played against great players.

I've played with great players.

But Messi is the only player I've ever watched and genuinely thought:

'This isn't normal.'

The scary thing?

Opponents know exactly what he's going to do.

And they still can't stop it.

That's why I don't waste my time with comparisons anymore.

Some players become legends.

Some players become icons.

Messi became a category of his own.

And after today's performance, if you're still asking me who the greatest footballer of all time is...

You're asking the wrong question.

The right question is:
Will football ever produce another one like him?”

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

😂😂👍👍💪💪

[FIFA @FIFAcom]

History is made.

Lionel Messi is the all-time top goalscorer in @FIFAWorldCup history! 🤩🇦🇷

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

😂😂👍

[Matt Smethurst @MattSmethurst]

40% of fatherhood is walking around the house, turning off lights.

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

一个ML项目实际上
50% 评估（evaluation）
40% 数据清洗（data cleaning）
这两项决定了学习的noise floor，模型再强大也无法突破这个底线，这是数据本身的Shannon encoding最优界限。
然后才是
8% 集成（integration）
2% 训练（training）。

[Yun-Ta Tsai @yunta_tsai]

Many people think any given ML project is 99% training.

In reality, it’s 50% evaluation, 40% data cleaning, 8% integration, and 2% training.

The first two set the noise floor for learning. No ML magic matters; the model cannot lower the noise floor, as that’s the optimal bound of Shannon encoding of your data.

Thus, not a single day goes by without me thinking about ontology. Even the old labels have to be constantly reviewed.

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

Midjourney宣布成立新部门“Midjourney Medical”，并推出了一款革命性的全身扫描仪原型（Midjourney Scanner），称为Ultrasonic CT（超声计算机断层成像）或“全身超声”。

[Midjourney @midjourney]

A technical dive inside our new "Midjourney Scanner"

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

今天前，美联储的使命是绝不让利率市场感到意外，并确保其利率变动提前被市场充分消化；今天后新的美联储的有意为之，每次的FOMC, 利率走势将呈现50/50概率。投资者需要自行分析经济数据，并自行判断利率应该维持在什么水平。也就是说，以前从专业“读懂Fed”拉回到认真“读懂经济和企业”，一个全新的改变

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

Anthropic发博客说明立场，Sacks直接在X发 bullet points 列出另一方观点。
双方都直接面向公众，无需传统媒体先解读，润色。
我们自己就需要更强大的判断能力了

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

This post by @DavidSacks about the Anthropic/Fable situation is noteworthy, but not for the reason most people think.

Put the details aside for a second.

Anthropic released a blog post with their side of the story a few hours ago. David is responding with a bullet point list in a tweet about a different side of the story.

Years ago both sides would be jockeying to get mainstream reporters to tell their version of the truth and the American public would be fed some edited narrative that was filtered through a bureaucratic media organization.

That world doesn't exist anymore.

Now both sides share their versions publicly so the American people can hear directly from them. It is up to the individual citizens to make up their mind who they believe.

I haven't read a single article about the situation, but rather just read the various players' statements.

Fascinating how fast the world has changed.

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

👀👀

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

😂😂👍可以当总统啦

[tomie @tomieinlove]

I plan to live Anthropically. If someone asks me about something I don't like I'll just become a stupider version of myself

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

👍👍😂

[hrdk @hrdktwt]

Someone on Reddit built a game where you ride a dirt bike on top of any company's stock chart.

[缠缠PP @MM39901268]

😂😂

[Tulip King 🌷 @tulipking]

i look forward to our chinese brothers liberating the knowledge from within fable-5 and selling it to me at 5% the cost & 2x the speed