Marco1158

[Hov @HovWaves]

$SMR

A bunch of you talked about SMR being a favorite

I've been tracking it for a while & I was thinking our low is in but I'm not positive with it still hovering at the lows

No matter if it is or we get one more low I think this is a great area if you are long term bullish SMR

[Korinek_Trades @korinek_trades]

$BTC #bitcoin

Near term: Summer relief bounce should come soon

5 down from ATH is a bearish sequence but suggests a relief rally to come

Now 60K

_____

Long term —> I see this trading down to the 44K / 34K area as the load zone

[Nexus∞θθ8 @NXS_BladeRunner]

HOOD - W1

9 months later.

[MarketMaestro @MarketMaestro1]

I track $BTC this way

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Why do I keep getting these questions!!!

$XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations.

It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development.

Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023.

Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth.

So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC?
That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes.

I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized.

Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

专门写给我的中文读者：

绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。

他们的业务涵盖：

谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户）

人形机器人旋转关节减速器

直线执行器

电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。

并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。

目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。

主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。

如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的人形机器人的 4-15%，随着他们进军更多细分领域，这个比例可能还会更高。

我认为没有人能对这类公司进行精确的财务建模，其前景更多取决于未来几年内会有多少人形机器人实现量产。

这其实是对一家能够在每台生产出的人形机器人中占据可观份额的公司，进行的一种方向性做多（directional long）。

在可扩展的规模化量产方面，中国显然是该领域的领导者，许多西方玩家无法将成本降到绿的谐波那样的水平。

随着我们向实体人工智能（physical AI）的规模化迈进，我极其看好机器人这个赛道。

[ᴀʟᴛꜱᴛʀᴇᴇᴛ ʙᴇᴛꜱ @AltstreetBet]

$META , will be trading above 1k in 2027

[Mauro @MauroBianchi24]

Hello everyone! Sorry for the silence — I got married recently so X hasn’t been exactly at the center of my thoughts 😄

I am happy to say that the stocks we’ve been talking about have done really well. $SIVE in particular is up 640% since I first mentioned it back in March, and another 146% since my last tweet.

At least we can say I left you in good hands right?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.

Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.

> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI

> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)

> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.

> One of the critical MEMS foundries

> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag

> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.

> backstopped by Government:

- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).

With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).

So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.

EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.

~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).

As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.

Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name.

For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. 

Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)

Thought it personally seemed compelling.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index.

This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M.

We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO:

From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations.

To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC.

With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO.

And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers.

All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers.

Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report.

Personally I picked some up for exposure.

Chinese competitors might be used for mass production.

But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + build them up.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

What an insane day for photonics.

$SIVE up 31.3%
$TSEM up 23.1%
$AAOI 20.01%.

It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go.

Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK?

Here they are.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

And… $FLNC is up over 50% now.

I did think it was undervalued as is, but it was a massive cherry on top throwing in 2 hyperscaler deals.

Exciting to see how much markets re-rate this energy company.

[Mauro @MauroBianchi24]

$IREN - ( $17.6bn )

Not too bad for some squiggly lines.

It missed my bottom just by a few $ but for the rest it has been tracking very well. It's not easy to predict such swift moves in rapid succession. But here we did it.

I expect Iren to push for ATH within the next 6-8 months

[Marco1158 @MMarco6]

@_onlyscott Cancelo

[Mauro @MauroBianchi24]

What a day for the CPO sector especially with Sivers ( $SIVE ) up 31% but also $AEHR +9%!

The real ramp for these companies is in 2027–2028, but days like today remind me that trimming profits is never a bad idea.

We’re at the point where a lot of companies are getting shilled just because they have photonics in the story.

It reminds me of when in 2020-2021 people were calling every new EV company ( $LCID, $NIO etc.) the new $TSLA and we all saw how it went.

Do your own research — there are real opportunities, but also plenty of bad ones.

[EliZ @eliz883]

$USOIL

Sweep up and down