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Tonight’s FOMC is a volatility event.
20:00 CEST: rate decision
20:30 CEST: press conference
We expect choppier price action tonight. In preparation, we decreased our $ETH exposure in the Core Holding.
Our focus remains on trading the volatility in ETH/EUR and $TAO/EUR pairs.
Recent weeks have provided a strong correction in the markets.
That's great. It enhances the volume on high-frequency trading for our strategies.
Therefore, in our base assets, we've added our position on $ETH and blue chips in the ecosystem during the last week.
September delivered what it often does: higher volatility and mixed returns across assets.
#Ethereum fell -12.4% intramonth and closed -5.60%. #Bitcoin rebounded +4.96% after August’s decline. Gold pushed to new highs near $3,900, up +11.94%.
How we navigated it:
Core Holdings: consistent with our risk framework, we scaled out ~75% of $ETH from the August high. During the mid-month correction, we re-added ETH in stages and increased $ARB, focusing on liquid, high-quality names.
Volatility Trading: trend shifts and intramonth reversals made execution challenging. On the way down, a lot of orders got filled, indicating that there is a good amount of unrealized profits. These trades are starting to rotate already with the opening of October.
Our first quarter trading with MN Fund concluded with a net return of +8.42% net for our investors. As we enter Q4, we’re prepared for shifting liquidity and the first OTC unlocks. As always, we will continue to navigate the volatile market conditions.
#Gold rallied to $3,750–$3,800/oz.
Drivers: central-bank buying, renewed ETF inflows, macro hedging.
Backdrop: US GDP +3.8% (annualized, Q2) and potential Fed cuts later this year.
We’re watching $USD & front-end rates and the durability of flows.
Trending far away from the mean → higher odds of mean reversion; expect increased volatility for risk-on assets, such as $BTC and $ETH.
At some point in the cycle, there will be a bear market for #Altcoins and #Bitcoin.
What would that mean for your portfolio? Where are you going to get yield from?
With our hybrid strategy and the flexibility to adjust the parameters, an agressively downtrending market is actually more profitable than a ranging period for us.
The ultimate goal for us is to design a strategy that is active in all circumstances, in order to generate a sustainable ROI.
For more information, check our website: https://t.co/ivla0z2ShA
We’re seeing weekly trend breaks across several digital assets—capital rotating from $BTC & $ETH toward other infrastructures and #DeFi protocols. #Ethereum is trending well above its weekly moving average, which makes near-term mean reversion a realistic risk.
We scaled out of ETH last week. We’re now monitoring structure and flows to rotate back in once the market stabilizes and shows readiness for its next move up.
Last week, macroeconomic data provided a clear pathway for the central banks.
CPI & PPI weren't a big change.
However, the annual revision of the job data caused a drop of 911,000 jobs.
The largest in history.
For us, as fund managers, it's clear that monetary expansion and rate cuts are on the horizon as the FED needs to stimulate the economy in order to prevent a recession.
Usually, that's a good sign for risk-on assets to start thriving, which means that we continue to seek opportunities in the markets through $ETH & #Altcoins.
The SEC has postponed a decision on adding a staking feature to BlackRock’s iShares #Ethereum Trust, extending the review to October 30, 2025.
It also pushed back decisions on Franklin Templeton’s proposed $SOL and $XRP spot ETFs to November 14.
The door remains open, but the SEC requires more time before approving any of the new ETF structures.
U.S. producer inflation eased in August. Headline PPI fell 0.1% month over month and slowed to 2.6% year over year versus 3.3% expected; core PPI also dipped 0.1% m/m with 2.8% y/y.
Markets were already leaning toward a September Fed rate cut, so attention now turns to the CPI release for confirmation.
Our fund is focused on providing a sustainable, consistent return.
That's primarily created through volatility trading, which we've been doing.
Quite regularly, volatility is causing panic and chaos for investors, but for us, as a fund, it's actually our bread and butter.
The more volatile, the better.
If the markets are going to be more volatile in the coming period, for instance on $ETH, this should yield a positive return for our fund.
Since July, #Ethereum has led in institutional interest, attracting around $8.2 billion in net inflows compared to $4.8 billion for #Bitcoin ETFs.
August was particularly strong for $ETH, with nearly $3 billion inflows, including over $1 billion in a single day on August 11. Daily inflows often exceeded $400 million.
This surge in ETF allocations has pushed Ethereum to nearly $5,000, while $BTC has been in a corrective phase, resulting in a 27% increase in the ETH/BTC ratio, which closed above the monthly 20EMA for the first time since June '23.
The second month of trading for our liquid fund has finished with a gross return of +4.29%. The YTD return is now +12.21%.
A difficult month, as #Bitcoin fell by 8.65% in August, however, we've been able to secure a stable profit.
What is the strategy?
1. Core Holdings - As explained in the previous months' post, the core holdings include $BTC, $ETH and some blue chips.
2. Volatility Trading - high-frequency volatility trading strategy that executes orders on multiple assets to generate a constant return.
3. OTC Trading - taking OTCs on the secondary markets.
During August, the prime driver of the return was through the Core Holdings, as $ETH has been gone up substantially.
On top of that, we were able to increase the USD position during the significant uptick of $ETH, which was reallocated in the recent correction.
Additionally, improvements on the volatility trading have yielded into a positive return. The results for the volatility trading averaged 6-9% on the assets, despite the fact that some assets still have unrealized returns. We expect these to be activated in the coming period.
Ultimately, the fund is there to leverage the volatility of crypto and to have an hybrid strategy that will do well in any market circumstance.
Feel free to reach out through our website: https://t.co/AxRo5YydLW if you'd like to receive more information!
This week, our Investment Manager @cryptomichnl will be attending @conf3rence where he'll join a panel to discuss the upcoming period for the market.
He'll be discussing everything related to #Bitcoin, $ETH, the ETFs, and which areas are interesting.
Make sure to reach out if you'd like to meet up!
Securing Over-The-Counter (OTC) deals is an essential part of our multi-strategy fund. Let's explore why:
1. Opportunity to invest in projects, with a discount on the token price
2. Working directly with the foundations/treasuries of #Web3 projects
3. No order book risks (spread, illiquid books, maker/taker fees, etc.)
4. Escrowed settlements
Combining this with our volatility #trading and core holding makes MN Fund agile in a fast-changing industry.
The markets are heavily volatile, which suits an active high-frequency strategy.
On our base assets, we've trimmed of our $ETH and were able to allocate back in last week.
Our projection is that the upcoming period the rates will be cut and risk-on appetite should be strengthened, which means that the volatility can be utilized.
We trimmed $ETH near the previous high. We’re now exploring a buy-back—only when conviction is there:
1. ETF inflows keep their trend
2. Structure: higher low on daily + vol contraction → expansion
3. Flow: spot > perps, funding neutral/negative
Execution: staged entries, focus on ETH/EUR, possibly increasing our $AAVE and $ARB positions.