MO_Quant

A trader's thoughts on markets & the economy. 49ers fan. No financial advice & I may have positions in or against that which is being discussed.🏳️‍🌈

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

See below. My previously stated concern on why they were pushing so hard for cuts is because they know things are more precarious than they appear is spot on. Expect things to get much worse.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Likely biggest thing that could happen to make me reconsider would be a substantial NFP number whose gains are broad-based, including substantial gains in fin & prod/bus svcs.
This may be part of why admin is pushing so hard for cuts: they may know how precarious things are.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Some perspective on the rise in Minnesota initial claims.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Payroll data estimates this week:
Wednesday: ADP
Estimate: 118k
Previous: 122k

Thursday: NFP
Estimate: 114k
Previous: 172k

Source: Bloomberg

My take? Unclear if deterioration I noticed is enough to bring down numbers to the extent estimates suggest.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@AnnaEconomist Not sure if, past current admin, eq stakes continue. (As an investor, I hope they don't, as it distorts things - see TARP)

That said, I think regulation enters when evidence of substantial employment hits occur. In that respect, I think that 2028 is possible.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Thoughts on the payroll number:

At this pt, I think no cuts & hikes (?) is obvious. But, I think the real story is the cont'd probs w/ white collar mkt & the political change I expect that to drive. Currently focusing on historical analogues for mkts in nxt 2 yrs in that regard.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@Jon_Hartley_ Congratulations!

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

This is very granular data out of TX but one I'm watching closely - Gulf Coast (e.g Harris co, etc).
Week claims for w/e 5/19 are highest since April.
Worse are the claim industries, beginning with temps, oil, etc. - shedding temp workers matters.

https://t.co/22yUdxiVbp

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

*Sigh*

The risk isn't to the card companies, for now, anyways.

Here's what ppl s/b watching:
1. Cons becomes delinquent
2. Cons gets credit line CUT (if not already near max)
3. Credit utilization soars
4. Credit score ⬇️

Smart money looking at hit to cons spend from this.

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

BREAM: The Journal says the percentage of delinquent credit card balances is 13%, the highest since the period following the financial crisis. People say they're using them for necessities. Your message to them?

HASSETT: We talk to the CEOs of the credit card companies all the time. Delinquency is different from default, and there's not any financial threat to the credit card companies. It's just people are taking a little bit longer.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Another payrolls week ahead of us.

Wed ADP: 116k
Thurs claims: 211k
NFP: 95k
(Source: BTV Econ calendar)

Beyond the top line number, I am looking for any signs hiring sectors are broadening from previous month.

Claims remain non-issue for now in the vast majority of locations.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

f(x) := sin(Iran commentary)

I hope everyone understands what is going on here.

https://t.co/Ouxfs5N5Vm

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@lisaabramowicz1 Yes. And in due time, it will matter.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Disagree.

Pillars on which job mkt rest continue to deteriorate. Headline num/rate, for ex, look good. Elsewhere, probs. Flat to losing where it counts - info, prof/bus svcs, fin.

Implications still to be seen but coming.

Claims site still down. Why?

Mkt rxn not surprising.

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

JUST IN: Good news. The US economy added a strong 115,000 jobs in April (and March was revised higher to 185,000!) The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. Hiring was strong in healthcare (about 1/3 of job gains in April), retail and transportation/warehouse.

The bad news = Inflation is about to eat up wage gains.

Wage growth: 3.6% in past year --> That’s likely to be eaten up by April inflation of ~4%

#jobs

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

Happy Payrolls week to those who celebrate.

Wednesday's ADP: Forecast: +90k
Friday NFP: +73k

Source: BTV econ calendar

Claims remain low but isolated areas such as the TX gulf Coast, look bad, though not in collapse.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

WTH?

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@PI010101 Substantially different, IMO, but I'm humble enough to say I don't yet know in what way yet. One guess? Fewer students entering the field.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

The game being played now should be obvious. Massage the markets higher with promises of peace...when they don't (likely) materialize and you get a sell off, it's from new ATH. Then more verbal massaging and the process repeats.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@colbyLsmith That quote tells you all you need to know about what's coming with the transition and forthcoming influence over monetary policy. Prepare for an indictment.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@NickTimiraos @lindsaywise My take? There is *zero* chance he "lives" with it. When has that happened? There's a potential, if things don't get resolved in Iran that come mid-May, the mkt turmoil could be substantial. It's the last thing we want or need but I don't believe it can be discounted just yet.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@krassenstein Been saying this as well and it's critical to being able to trade this correctly. Likely views against above previous levels as playing with house money and as such, a modest give back doesn't phase him. That said, we should be gearing up for the next leg down.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@dampedspring @NickTimiraos Mine's just a theory but I remain concerned they are gearing up for a legal battle that's going to shock people. I hope I'm wrong - we don't need more drama. But, that's why I follow others who know more about the legal intricacies than me.

[MO_Quant @MO_Quant]

@dampedspring @NickTimiraos I may have read that, can't recall. My only point is that I expect them to do whatever they want via a novel legal theory (or not) and then dare the courts to stop it.