I think we need to wait another 4 or 5 weeks in a narrower range between $4000 and $4300, allowing the RSI indicator to prepare for an uptrend. Then we'll break this short-term downtrend and start rising. #XAU#Gold#XAUT#PAXG
#Bitcoin YoY % Change
Every major bottom has formed inside a sustained red zone (2015, 2018, 2022).
We've been in red for a while now.
Also notice that the green peaks get smaller each cycle. Diminishing returns as the market matures. The red zone could get shallower too.
Worth monitoring.
I think we need to wait another 4 or 5 weeks in a narrower range between $4000 and $4300, allowing the RSI indicator to prepare for an uptrend. Then we'll break this short-term downtrend and start rising. #XAU#Gold#XAUT#PAXG
On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k.
Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually the cycle bottom band (red).
I'm not saying that Bitcoin must go to the cycle bottom band this bear market (although it is possible).... but to have excellent consistency across all cycles and then bottom in the middle of the bands would not make sense.
I believe data is getting progressively more challenging to interpret. This has already been true for the past two cycle tops and the last cycle bottom.
What looks like an obvious weekly bullish divergence on RSI like November 2022 may prove to be just a red herring.
#Bitcoin
Some still argue that Bitcoin never entered a bear market and that the decline from the October 2025 peak is simply another correction within an ongoing bull market.
Some even refer to the ~50% drawdown of 2021 as evidence.
However, focusing solely on the size of the decline misses the bigger picture.
The 2021 correction began in April and lasted roughly three months before Bitcoin went on to print new all-time highs.
The current decline began after the October 6th, 2025 peak and has now lasted more than eight months without a new all-time high.
Similar drawdown.
Different timing, different duration, different market structure.
Until proven otherwise, the four-year cycle remains the most logical explanation for the current market environment.
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"BTC and MACD Updates
Signaling the Low is In"
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