Dexter

diving deep into AI and memes

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

@Support i am unable to use an account that has been delegated to me. The profile owner confirmed, that i still show up as an active contributor, but on my side it doesnt. Help please.

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

hello

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

If being popular was my goal, I’d jump on the cheerleading bandwagon for the announced strategic reserve as a game-changer like everyone else. Of course I am thrilled at the idea of a strategic reserve in the US where bitcoin is finally being recognized. But as someone who at times must be contrarian in seeking alpha, here are my thoughts for the many who follow me because I speak my mind for which I hope you’ll appreciate that my views are still at large as aligned with anyone else who wants to see broad bitcoin adoption at the sovereign level–

People are comparing the EO strategic reserve as a breakthrough moment like when the Bitcoin spot ETFs launched, where the ST price action might go down near term but eventual institutional flows would come in and this would be a game changer. I disagree with this comparison. I think this is more similar to the ProShares futures-based Bitcoin ETF launch moment in 2021. Because while it is true that BITO raised a lot of money at the peak of market exuberance, it also found a material ceiling for “real flows” as the product itself was fundamentally flawed. It also did not start the expected global arms race of spot ETFs to launch elsewhere. Eventually, we would learn that we really needed the real thing, the spot ETF 3 years later to truly unleash the moment. We needed the US to first launch the real thing, not the fake thing, for the rest of the world to follow. Yet make no mistake that BITO was helpful in bridging the gap.

In my opinion, EO Strategic Reserve represents a similarly imperfect outcome. An EO is a singular political directive that can stick or disappear as easily as Biden’s EO on gender-affirming care for minors or the EO that sought to restrain the AI industry. Without the collective power of legislation that reflects the will of the people’s coalition building, it is not likely the game-changing thing that kicks off a bunch of second order things people expect. People are generally already suspicious of the overreach of executive authority and one must account for there being a net negative that comes with these types of theatrics as well, especially for non-believers. So the question is: did we get enough net benefits against the costs?

At the core, we all know Trump is a transparently transactional person. He recognized that bitcoin, whether he believes in it or not, symbolized the ethos of his political capital and capitalized its base to the max to win the office. And all of this visually came down to this moment last night when you watch the video of his signing the EO. Before signing, he asks two questions: 1) "This is something YOU believe in, right?" 2) "And I made the promise, right?" What is happening here is a total relinquishment by transaction consummation. Trump is now officially “off the hook” for what the Bitcoin community did for him. If you want something else later, he’ll want something else from now on.

And so in my humble opinion, we asked for too little. Having only bitcoin and not the rest of the altcoins in the strategic reserve by framing that as if it should have even been a considered question is not a win. “Exploring” or “studying” concepts is not a win. “Not selling” is not a win. None of these things at the core require an EO at all to do anything. They are merely symbolic things that may kick off some events (or it may not). Comparing the current environment to Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and claiming we should now be “grateful” makes it sound like “being neutral” is itself a win. It’s not. Chokepoint 2.0, SAB 121 were evil things. That can’t be the benchmark for our industry to feel like we are owed to feel grateful for anything else. For the Bitcoin Roundtable fundraiser to have been one of the largest contributors to his election campaign, one must ask if this the “strategic reserve deal” that people had in mind at the time versus now. The fact that the Polymarket bet “Will Trump create bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days?” is still sitting at <50% “yes” today reflects the ambiguity of this expectation. In other words, promises were made, but the market is not sure if promises were kept, though the one thing for sure is that now Trump is off the hook.

Maybe this is the best we can do for now. It doesn’t mean the crypto council, policymakers, lobbyists and the executive team are not doing all the best they can. I’m sure they did and are. At the same time, it is rational to consider disappointment if this represents the culminating moment of peak performance since November and consider this is a short-term bearish set up. We are so used to being treated so badly that we are conditioned to think every small thing is the biggest win ever. My one ask for the industry is that we strive to set our bars higher, where we demand really meaningful things so we can celebrate really meaningful things, especially as we head into the heat of the two most important things that will come out of Congress: market structure and stablecoin legislations. We deserve it, and we helped elect a lot of people for it. Hold them all accountable for real progress. Then after the hard work is done, let's celebrate those wins when we cross the finish line.

[Zeneca🔮 @Zeneca]

I round tripped 8 figures last cycle. A few things I learned:

- It’s almost always better to sell too early and miss out on gains, then to hold too long and round trip the bag. This is because eventually, almost everything trends to zero, so even your “early sell” is likely going to make you look like a genius in a few months/years

- If you ever take a PnL screenshot of how much you’re up, sell. You don’t have to sell your entire position, but it’s usually an excellent time to at least trim 20-50% of it.

- Most people on this app have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about. Often the loudest and most confident voices know the least, while the quiet and self questioning ones are full of wisdom.

- You can’t borrow conviction. If you buy something because someone else did or told you it was “a hidden gem”, you’re almost guaranteed to fumble the bag. They’ll dump on your head while you’re still anxiously waiting for their next tweet or YouTube video to tell you what to do.

- Stop trying to impress people. This is just good general life advice, but it applies triply so to this space. Wanting to impress your friends and family is one thing, wanted to impress random anons on the internet? Insanity.

- There’s Bitcoin, and then there’s everything else. It took me too long to truly realize this. Yes alts can and will occasionally outperform - sometimes for long stretches of time - but basically everything bleeds to Bitcoin over the long run.

- Most people try to outperform Bitcoin by trading these alts; probably leas than 5% of people can actually accomplish this. It’s like trying to outperform the S&P 500. Most people are better off just buying the index.

- This place has a way of warping your perspective to a level that is literally bordering on mental illness. Many of us refused to sell jpegs of a list of words for $50,000 last cycle because we thought “it’s undervalued”. Many otherwise smart people. You are not immune. Herd mentality is real, it takes *a lot* to swim against the current around here. You should try.

- Extending from that point, try and zoom out and also spend time with non-crypto people. 1 SOL or 0.08 ETH can seem like not significant amounts of money (unit bias is real), but add up how much that is per day or year and think what you could do with that money IRL. Also, most people are thrilled to earn a 10% return on their investments in a YEAR, and rightfully so. That’s a great return, crypto just warps everything.

- Compound interest is mind boggling powerful. You don’t need to find a 100x, you’re usually way better off stringing together a bunch of 2x plays or even compounding at 10-50% a year (do the math, do you have any idea how insane compound interest is at high %s over a bunch of years?)

- Put another way: “Most people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.”

If you found this insightful, all I ask is that you drop a bookmark, share with a friend, and/or subscribe to my newsletter where I share a lot more 🙏

Cheers

[nemi @Nemi_0x]

https://t.co/cvEZUnz56S

[Min Choi @minchoi]

Manus AI just killed vibe coding yesterday.

People can't believe how mind blowing this agentic AI is.

Unlocking new possibilities.

10 wild examples:

1. prompt: "code a threejs game where you control a plane"

[John Rush @johnrush]

Chinese AI startups: 1/6th of US funding, bad press, sanctions, brain drain, communism, little English proficiency, and no talent influx..

But after using Manus AI, Deepseek, Trae, Kling, Vidu, &amp; Ying, I think the US is in trouble.

At this pace, China will dominate AI.

Demos:

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Does the US government WANT a recession?

In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced.

The quickest way to LOWER rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.

Could the US benefit from a market crash?

(a thread)

[Barsee 🐶 @heyBarsee]

The last few days in AI is insane 🤯

12 most incredible developments from Google, OpenAI, Alibaba, Unitree, Manus and more

1/ China unveils new Quantum Computer ‘Zuchongzhi-3’—a 105-qubit machine that performs calculations one million times faster than Google's Supercomputer.

[insomniac @insomniacxbt]

defi projects on my radar:

aave - new tokenomics
mkr - sky + juicy revenue
fluid - smart debt lp
morpho - permissionless mkts
syrup - good rwa yield + growth
ondo - main rwa narrative + chain
ena - stablecoin + basis + institutional + chain
pendle - yield mkts
royco/concrete/veda - vaults everywhere
level - stablecoin restaking
babylon - btc yield soon?
etherfi/LBTC/others.. - lsts
elixir/usual/resolv/resupply - stablecoins

+ many more...

prob good to spend the next month or so deep diving into these and more.

[Damian @0xDamian0x]

https://t.co/WXW0yaVuQx

[Haseeb Qureshi ＞|＜ @hosseeb]

Guys, new tokenomics suggestions:

No more allowing unvested tokens to be staked. I don’t know which project originally came up with this, but it’s a stupid idea that erodes trust in private markets. We’ve never recommended this, but some VCs ask for it, and a few years ago it started becoming a popular structure. Let's kill this once and for all for pre-launch projects.

Second, a suggestion: I vote that we kill unlock cliffs. The standard tokenomics structure on a 4-year vest looks like this:
There’s a big fat 25% cliff that unlocks 1 year out that everyone freaks out about and becomes a big FUD event, and the market argues about whether these are “bullish unlocks” or if the VCs are going to decimate retail, and then there are continual unlocks events every month after that.

Markets hate step functions, so why introduce one? We should just instead do this: no cliff, vesting begins after 1 year and then continues linearly. You can do this in two parts so by month 24, VCs are indifferent and unlocking at the same pace as the previous function.
With this, tokens vest daily, not monthly, so there are literally 0 kinks or special days when tokens unlock. Makes markets way more orderly and lower drama. You can keep the 4 year vest and end up with a much smoother market.

Thoughts?

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

https://t.co/PdiPUEdNjg @soleng_agent

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

@0xDamien not sure on the price targets but i can imagine a future where audio visual layer becomes significant usecase.

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

@soleng_agent https://t.co/lhPUJEWa4a

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

@soleng_agent
https://t.co/z1f9QLjRtO

[DeFi Cheetah - e/acc @DeFi_Cheetah]

6. Compared to the AI agent frameworks like @ai16zdao's ELIZA, @virtuals_io's GAME,@arcdotfun's RIG and @0xzerebro's Zerepy, both @swarmnode & @swarms_corp focus on the context where a lot of AI agents collaborate together on-chain. I think the gist lies in the 'serverlessness' & scalability, which is very important to a decentralized network

[Dexter @MSKDEGEN]

@ehwangah interesting points. I feel AI character agents are in a perfect timing to benefit from the Loneliness economy

[Tint @tintsion]

just as content creators became a job
agent creators will also become a job

the way the future is playing out, this role will be an extremely in demand

the people who know how to create the best agents will be very valuable

[cygaar @0xCygaar]

it must be a terrible time to be a cs newgrad

- way fewer openings compared to 5 yrs ago
- ai actively replacing junior engineers
- way more students competing for limited spots
- super hard to stand out from peers

open source work and networking are probably the only ways out