Strategy Simulator

Simulating $MSTR performance against Bitcoin 🟠⚡️| Not affiliated with Strategy Inc. Not financial advice. Do your own research. Educational purposes only.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Fuck the bears. Fuck the critics.

I am aggressively buying Strategy #MSTR over the next 6 months.

I have 3 reasons why.

1) It is officially stack season. We've entered the bottom crescendo of Bitcoin's 4-year bear market.

Last cycle, stacking BTC from June to November 2022 was one of my best decisions ever. This cycle, I plan to repeat that success with MSTR: the stock for more volatile, intelligently levered Bitcoin exposure.

From bottom (Dec 2022) to top (Nov 2024), MSTR rose 33.4X last cycle.

No two cycles are the same, and nobody times the market perfectly. But the chance to catch even a fraction of that wave again is far too appetizing, and it begins now.

2) Strategy's EV mNAV has fallen to 1.0.

That means the stock is now valued for the same bitcoin and cash that the company *already owns*, including all debts and preferred stock claims.

It's valued at ZERO projected future earnings. This is completely irrational and an obvious buy.

When bitcoin rises, Strategy's liabilities will shrink proportionally to its assets, and MSTR will rise even faster than BTC. All we have to do is wait.

3) The Saylor FUD is out of control.

You're all suffering PTSD from the last bear market. You assume there has to be a huge theatrical crypto blowup, and that it's destined to be Strategy this cycle. This is lunacy.

Strategy is publicly audited, extraordinarily transparent, and remarkably simple as a business.

They invest in Bitcoin. They buy more of it with intelligent leverage. No term risk, no margin calls. The Bitcoin appreciates faster than the interest accumulates.

Strategy's founder survived as CEO for over 20 years, and is one of the most intelligent and principled voices Bitcoin has ever had.

He's proven himself to our community for half a decade now. I'm not buying some sensationalist FUD that he's chosen now to go corrupt or insane.

For those who think this, I will gladly buy your cheap MSTR from you at this time.

This is my basic case on this topic. The next two years are gonna be incredible.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Last week's activity obviously boosted Strategy's USD years of coverage.

But with STRC buybacks, it also improved BTC years of coverage.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

A frustrated MSTR holder just confronted Michael Saylor.

He put $219,000 into the stock for his kids' future and watched it crash by over 70% to $60,000. He asked what answers management had for him.

This was their full response.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

WHY SHOULD STRATEGY (MSTR) EVER TRADE ABOVE 1.0 mNAV?

That's easy. Forward-looking expectations, and speculation.

Strategy's stock contains embedded leverage on BTC. When BTC rises, not only is the BTC on its balance sheet strengthened, but the company's senior claims remain fixed next to it.

This makes all additional value from BTC appreciation accrue purely to the MSTR shareholder. Therefore, MSTR holders enjoy an increase in "Net BTC Per Share," and the stock goes up *even more* than BTC itself.

How much more? That's measured by amplification.

Today, Strategy's amplification is 1.47X. That means if you bought MSTR at residual value today, and BTC went up 100% tomorrow, then MSTR goes up 147%, all other things equal.

If you are bullish on bitcoin, this is obviously compelling, and you see upside in the stock.

In fact, some people may be willing to buy the stock at a premium to its current BTC holdings, expecting growth in Net BTC Per Share to eclipse the premium they paid over time.

As of today, the mNAV is 1.06.

Is this multiple worth it to you?

[Jesse Ochs @JesseOchs2]

@MSTR_simulator Why is mnav ever greater than 1?

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@TAKARA_TOMMY1 @Strategy Spot on. The FUD will be forgotten and will seem completely delusional in retrospect.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@comic They'll want the 12% dividend once they realize that it's not gonna stop being paid.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Here's $STRC performance after one week.

The $132m of buybacks did little to shore up the price this time. The final $5 will include ample selling pressure.

But as dividends continue to be paid and BTC appreciates again, its deviations from par will be smaller and smaller.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@Cryptopotter89 https://t.co/sRSYvWeBQC

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Important context on this assessment.

Dilution purely came from the $52.4 million paid in dividends to STRC holders.

If left out, the other capital markets activities (bolstering the USD reserve and repurchasing STRC shares), were ACCRETIVE.

141,916 sats ➡️142,023 sats

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Strategy's activity last week was DILUTIVE and DE-AMPLIFYING for MSTR shareholders, per the Strategy Simulator.

BTC Reserve : 840,447 ➡️ 840,447
USD Reserve: $4.651B ➡️ $4.80B
Senior Claims: $21.99B ➡️21.85B
FDSO: 398.2M ➡️401.70B

Using a BTC price constant of $63,000...

MSTR Net BTC / Share fell 141,916 sats ➡️ 141,832 sats

Amplification fell 1.49X ➡️1.48x

Math is fun.

[Strategy @Strategy]

Strategy increased its USD Reserve by $150M and repurchased $132M of $STRC. This increased USD Duration by 41 days to 2.8 yrs and tightened STRC's BTC Credit by 4 bps to 114 bps. As of 8/16/26, we hold ₿840,447 in our BTC Reserve and $4.8B in our USD Reserve. $MSTR
https://t.co/L5uG3l0gYl

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Important context on this assessment.

Dilution purely came from the $52.4 million paid in dividends to STRC holders.

If left out, the other capital markets activities (bolstering the USD reserve and repurchasing STRC shares), were ACCRETIVE.

141,916 sats ➡️142,023 sats

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@comic Amplification is how the company makes its stock more volatile than BTC and aims to create greater long-term returns than BTC.

This is arguably the more important loss here for MSTR holders, in fact.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@RobinSeyr I loved learning from Matt as an early Bitcoiner. But his paranoia is out of hand now.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@RobinSeyr This brilliant 👏 🤣

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@TerriTortuguero Welcome 🟧

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Fuck the bears. Fuck the critics.

I am aggressively buying Strategy #MSTR over the next 6 months.

I have 3 reasons why.

1) It is officially stack season. We've entered the bottom crescendo of Bitcoin's 4-year bear market.

Last cycle, stacking BTC from June to November 2022 was one of my best decisions ever. This cycle, I plan to repeat that success with MSTR: the stock for more volatile, intelligently levered Bitcoin exposure.

From bottom (Dec 2022) to top (Nov 2024), MSTR rose 33.4X last cycle.

No two cycles are the same, and nobody times the market perfectly. But the chance to catch even a fraction of that wave again is far too appetizing, and it begins now.

2) Strategy's EV mNAV has fallen to 1.0.

That means the stock is now valued for the same bitcoin and cash that the company *already owns*, including all debts and preferred stock claims.

It's valued at ZERO projected future earnings. This is completely irrational and an obvious buy.

When bitcoin rises, Strategy's liabilities will shrink proportionally to its assets, and MSTR will rise even faster than BTC. All we have to do is wait.

3) The Saylor FUD is out of control.

You're all suffering PTSD from the last bear market. You assume there has to be a huge theatrical crypto blowup, and that it's destined to be Strategy this cycle. This is lunacy.

Strategy is publicly audited, extraordinarily transparent, and remarkably simple as a business.

They invest in Bitcoin. They buy more of it with intelligent leverage. No term risk, no margin calls. The Bitcoin appreciates faster than the interest accumulates.

Strategy's founder survived as CEO for over 20 years, and is one of the most intelligent and principled voices Bitcoin has ever had.

He's proven himself to our community for half a decade now. I'm not buying some sensationalist FUD that he's chosen now to go corrupt or insane.

For those who think this, I will gladly buy your cheap MSTR from you at this time.

This is my basic case on this topic. The next two years are gonna be incredible.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@BTCoptioneer I suspect this is how most investors in the instruments will evolve their thinking around it with time, slowly raising that floor to $97... $98... until the stability the simply seeks is truly unlocked

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@BitcoinTeacher_ Hes called it money lots of times. But as a store of value. What he won't call bitcoin is world reserve "currency."

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@ChrisMMillas Dw I'm here with you. I don't block them - I'm bookmark harvesting their replies for the 2028 victory lap.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@stepheaw It's at the 200WMA, and at cyclical bottom months of its historic 4 year cycle. I'd imagine they see plenty upside here.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

$607 MSTR.

This is the price the stock would reach if BTC claimed $250,000 in September 2029, and mNAV expanded to 1.3X at the peak.

This assumes net-zero accretive/dilutive actions for shareholders, net-zero new leverage, and a 12% cost of credit throughout the period.

[DigitalArtCollector @IBCHodler]

@MSTR_simulator How about for when BTC is at $250k?

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@JesseOchs2 Forward-looking growth expectations, or speculative trading.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@BitcoinTeacher_ Lil retard is hating for the love of the game. Gotta repect the hustle

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Saylor defends his case for people mortgaging their house to buy bitcoin.

"Imagine the government wants to give you money at 2.5%, and you could invest the money at 40%."