Strategy Simulator

Simulating $MSTR performance against Bitcoin 🟠⚡️| Not affiliated with Strategy Inc. Not financial advice. Do your own research. Educational purposes only.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Fuck the bears. Fuck the critics.

I am aggressively buying Strategy #MSTR over the next 6 months.

I have 3 reasons why.

1) It is officially stack season. We've entered the bottom crescendo of Bitcoin's 4-year bear market.

Last cycle, stacking BTC from June to November 2022 was one of my best decisions ever. This cycle, I plan to repeat that success with MSTR: the stock for more volatile, intelligently levered Bitcoin exposure.

From bottom (Dec 2022) to top (Nov 2024), MSTR rose 33.4X last cycle.

No two cycles are the same, and nobody times the market perfectly. But the chance to catch even a fraction of that wave again is far too appetizing, and it begins now.

2) Strategy's EV mNAV has fallen to 1.0.

That means the stock is now valued for the same bitcoin and cash that the company *already owns*, including all debts and preferred stock claims.

It's valued at ZERO projected future earnings. This is completely irrational and an obvious buy.

When bitcoin rises, Strategy's liabilities will shrink proportionally to its assets, and MSTR will rise even faster than BTC. All we have to do is wait.

3) The Saylor FUD is out of control.

You're all suffering PTSD from the last bear market. You assume there has to be a huge theatrical crypto blowup, and that it's destined to be Strategy this cycle. This is lunacy.

Strategy is publicly audited, extraordinarily transparent, and remarkably simple as a business.

They invest in Bitcoin. They buy more of it with intelligent leverage. No term risk, no margin calls. The Bitcoin appreciates faster than the interest accumulates.

Strategy's founder survived as CEO for over 20 years, and is one of the most intelligent and principled voices Bitcoin has ever had.

He's proven himself to our community for half a decade now. I'm not buying some sensationalist FUD that he's chosen now to go corrupt or insane.

For those who think this, I will gladly buy your cheap MSTR from you at this time.

This is my basic case on this topic. The next two years are gonna be incredible.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

I asked the Bitcoin community if they preferred STRC or SATA as a long-term life-savings account.

In September, 37% of you picked SATA.

Today, only 9% of you picked SATA.

Funny how long-term decisions can be so easily influenced by short-term price action. 😂

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Whose preferred stock would you, personally, rather put your life savings into for the next 5 years?

You must choose one.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

A reminder to everyone: these periods of boring chop are precisely where wealth is made.

Don't be the fool who stacks $MSTR when it's already running at 2 mNAV.

Buy it when it looks dead. You get rich when it surges back to life.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Back over $150. $MSTR

Are we all done pretending that the MSCI news mattered?

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Whose preferred stock would you, personally, rather put your life savings into for the next 5 years?

You must choose one.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Saylor explains why Strategy changed its mind in favor of daily dividends for STRC.

"What we've realized is that you can smooth the volatility and increase the liquidity if you pay daily."

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

MSTR has logged a golden cross for the first time since March 2023.

mNAV has also compressed again this week to a meager 1.07x.

At these levels, MSTR will rise +50% if BTC merely reclaims $100k, and mNAV expands to 1.27X.

Strong buying opportunity for amplified bitcoin.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Climbing back.

My prediction remains $100 when daily dividends are live (Nov 2).

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Strategy has explained why they're not increasing the STRC dividend despite it trading below par.

Large institutional investors don't care about higher yield beyond a certain point.

They want stability first.

Buybacks create that.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

"You don't build a market worth trillions without investing billions."

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

@halstonvalencia You don’t build a market worth trillions without investing billions.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@William07378284 Check again ser

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Friday was a fake dump.

$STRC is going to soar at today's open.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@timel9379 You're welcome 🤣

https://t.co/ASIYl13hUs

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

A frustrated MSTR holder just confronted Michael Saylor.

He put $219,000 into the stock for his kids' future and watched it crash by over 70% to $60,000. He asked what answers management had for him.

This was their full response.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@CJ_Bitcoin Thank you for clarifying the rationale here CJ!

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Saylor argues that most corporations should just buy STRC, not BTC.

"Just give me the $100 million. I will accept all the risk, the rollercoaster. I will give you the 10 or 11 percent yield back."

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

When STRC daily dividends go live...

$100 STRC = $0.03 per day
$100,000 STRC = $30 per day
$1,000,000 STRC = $300 per day.

Every calendar day.

Could you live on STRC?

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

Very curious to see how successful Strive's SATS stock will be.

Strategy has already tried the fixed-yield route, but found limited demand. STRC was designed to correct the core flaw of the previous preferreds (price instability), and it found massive success.

In a way, Strive trying the fixed-rate route again feels like a step backward.

That said: 15% yield is enormous. That alone may be enough to drive huge demand regardless of price stability.

Also curious how the ATM will be managed around this stock. Will Strive blast it to infinity at exactly $100? Or let it breathe and issue higher at $120 if demand gets up there?

This whole experiment will be an important data point. We're going to see how much investors really care about the absolute yield versus the bitcoin-backed "money market" thesis.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@SymsSayings https://t.co/xtYG4YEYQo

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

If BTC reclaims $105k

And mNAV shoots to 1.61X

You will literally double your money on MSTR.

Easy $280 per share.

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

@tbombs90 Didn't factor in time or dilution here because I didn't assume any balance sheet changes here (shares issuance, STRC sales, BTC accumulation, etc)

[Strategy Simulator @MSTR_simulator]

We just witnessed the final ex-div gigadump for $STRC, coupled with a BTC price fall.

Result: the price opened at $98.86 and has already rebounded to $99.40.

Beautiful.

We are all partying when daily divs start in two weeks.