Mark

#FTSE #DAX #SPX #NDQ #Commodities #Indices #FX #Smallcaps - Always looking for opportunities and undervalued stocks

[Mark @MTrad25]

Indonesian stocks slumped to their lowest level in five years while the rupiah reached another record low, underscoring investor concern that persistently high oil prices are straining the country’s finances.

Time to buy? https://t.co/nAKj4tKgFa

[Mark @MTrad25]

@SimslearnAi @thomaspower Claude

[Mark @MTrad25]

🌅 MORNING MISSIVE
📅 THU 23 APR 2026
────────────

📊 MARKET PULSE 📊

- S&P 500 HITS FRESH RECORD ABOVE 7,000 ON AI OPTIMISM AND STRONG EARNINGS.
- OIL PRICES EASE TO $83/BBL AFTER HORMUZ TRUCE EXTENSION REDUCES SUPPLY FEARS.
- US BANK EARNINGS BEAT EXPECTATIONS, BOOSTING CONSUMER SPENDING OUTLOOK.
- SOUTH KOREAN STOCKS SURGE ON SK HYNIX AI CHIP PROFITS AND EXPORT BOOM.
- TESLA SHARES RISE AS EV DEMAND RECOVERY LIFTS Q1 RESULTS ABOVE ESTIMATES.
- ECB LIKELY TO RAISE RATES IN Q2 AMID HIGHER ENERGY PRICE RISKS.
- GLOBAL GDP FORECAST CUT TO 2.4% ON MIDEAST DISRUPTIONS AND OIL SHOCK.
- DISINFLATION SIGNALS FROM SOFT PPI AID FED RATE CUT HOPES INTO 2027.

────────────

💹 KEY OVERNIGHT RATES 💹

SP500 7,137.80
NAS100 26,987.00
XAUUSD 4,740.45
WTI 95.79
BTC 78,448.50
ETH 2,391.58
EURUSD 1.1707
GBPUSD 1.3504
USDJPY 159.48

────────────

🗞️ TOP HEADLINES 🗞️

• S&P 500 closes at record high led by chipmakers and tech rally. BBG
• SK Hynix profit jumps on soaring AI memory chip prices. BBG
• Tesla profit tops expectations citing EV demand recovery. BBG
• South Korean growth beats estimates on AI-fueled exports. BBG
• US says no firm deadline for Iran proposal amid Hormuz standoff. BBG
• Truce extension in Strait of Hormuz boosts oil tanker traffic. RTRS
• PPI rises 0.5% vs 1.1% expected, signaling disinflation. RTRS
• Global GDP growth forecast cut to 2.4% on Mideast conflict. SPG

────────────

📅 FOCUS EVENTS - (GMT) 📅

ASIA SESSION:
00:30 — 🇯🇵 JP ★★☆: S&P Global Services PMI Flash
00:30 — 🇯🇵 JP ★★☆: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
04:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: New Car Registrations YoY

EU SESSION:
08:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
08:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: S&P Global Services PMI Flash
08:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
08:30 — 🇬🇧 UK ★★★: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
08:30 — 🇬🇧 UK ★★★: S&P Global Services PMI Flash
09:00 — 🇨🇳 CN ★★☆: FDI (YTD) YoY
10:00 — 🇬🇧 UK ★★☆: CBI Business Optimism Index
10:00 — 🇬🇧 UK ★★☆: CBI Industrial Trends Orders
10:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
12:30 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: Initial Jobless Claims

US SESSION:
13:45 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: S&P Global Services PMI Flash
13:45 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
13:45 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash

POST MARKET / ASIA EARLY:
23:01 — 🇬🇧 UK ★★☆: Gfk Consumer Confidence
23:30 — 🇯🇵 JP ★★☆: Core Inflation Rate YoY
23:30 — 🇯🇵 JP ★★★: Inflation Rate YoY

────────────
⚠️ TRADING DESK / STAY DISCIPLINED INTO THE DATA WINDOWS. RESEARCH AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
────────────

#ftse #dax #spx #ndq #dow #trump #investing #pmi #iranwar #hormuz #trading #gold

[Mark @MTrad25]

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt on Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and said it had seized at least two vessels — a first in nearly eight weeks of war. https://t.co/jDp1h04Gmq

[Mark @MTrad25]

UK headline inflation is seen at 3.3% for March, speeding up from 3% in February on the effects of the Iran war on petrol prices.

That’s going to be the main area to watch for in the report, with petrol prices having fallen in February’s report. Average prices for both unleaded and diesel surged over the course of March.

Core CPI is expected to stay at 3.2% and services CPI at 4.3%, also the same as in February’s report.

The biggest contributor to the increase in the headline rate, to the surprise of no one, was motor fuels.

Inflation for that part of the basket was 4.9%, compared to the fall registered in February. That’s the highest rate for motor fuels since January 2023.

#ukinflation #gbpusd #pound #ftse

[Mark @MTrad25]

📘 DAILY MACRO PLAYBOOK
📅 WED 22 APR 2026
────────────
Daily Macro & Trading Playbook with Risk Sentiments Explained
🟢 Risk-On: Ceasefire extension eases energy chokeholds; equities rally on de-escalation hopes
🔴 Risk-Off: Strait of Hormuz closure triggers supply shocks; safe havens surge amid war grind **EVENT 1: Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire Amid Naval Blockade**

────────────
🧩 Ceasefire holds; Hormuz traffic resumes
🎯 FOCUS: Equities firmer; oil softer; yields higher
🧠 RATIONALE: Eases energy premium; boosts risk appetite

🧩 Iran strikes Gulf assets in retaliation
🎯 FOCUS: Oil spikes; gold firmer; equities softer
🧠 RATIONALE: Renews supply fears via chokepoint disruption

🧩 Negotiations collapse; US seizes Kharg Island
🎯 FOCUS: Equities sell off; yields lower; oil surges
🧠 RATIONALE: Escalates to oil terminal control fight **EVENT 2: US-Israel Conflict Grinds into Regional Quagmire**

🧩 Ground ops launch without ceasefire breach
🎯 FOCUS: Oil volatile higher; defence stocks firmer; yields mixed
🧠 RATIONALE: Heightens regional energy security risks

🧩 Tehran sues for peace via concessions
🎯 FOCUS: Equities rally; oil eases; credit spreads tighten
🧠 RATIONALE: Reduces war premium on global growth

🧩 Hezbollah escalates from Lebanon front
🎯 FOCUS: Gold rallies; equities weaker; yields fall
🧠 RATIONALE: Widens multi-front war; fuels haven demand **EVENT 3: Russia Reaps Oil Windfall from Middle East War**

🧩 Oil prices stabilise on ceasefire progress
🎯 FOCUS: Equities mixed; rouble softer; yields steady
🧠 RATIONALE: Trims Russia's fiscal buffer from premiums

🧩 Prolonged Hormuz risks sustain high prices
🎯 FOCUS: Commodities firmer; EM equities softer; gold steady
🧠 RATIONALE: Bolsters Russia funding for war effort

🧩 Europe tightens energy sanctions further
🎯 FOCUS: Yields lower; oil dips; defence stronger
🧠 RATIONALE: Curbs revenue flow despite supply boost **EVENT 4: Security-Driven Shift to Electrification Accelerates**

🧩 Renewables investment surges on policy pivot
🎯 FOCUS: Tech and utilities firmer; oil softer; yields higher
🧠 RATIONALE: Bypasses fossil chokepoints via electrification

🧩 Supply chain snarls hit EV transition
🎯 FOCUS: Industrials weaker; commodities mixed; gold firmer
🧠 RATIONALE: War disrupts critical mineral logistics

🧩 Fossil fuel resilience trumps green rush
🎯 FOCUS: Energy stocks rally; yields rise; equities broad gain
🧠 RATIONALE: Security prioritises domestic supply over transitions **EVENT 5: IMF Flags War Shadows on Global Growth**

🧩 Conflict contained; defence spend supports activity
🎯 FOCUS: Equities firmer; yields higher; credit steady
🧠 RATIONALE: Fiscal impulse offsets growth slowdown

🧩 War spills over into broader slowdown
🎯 FOCUS: Equities softer; gold stronger; yields lower
🧠 RATIONALE: Crushes EM demand via energy pass-through

🧩 Diplomatic breakthrough lifts uncertainty
🎯 FOCUS: Risk assets rally; oil eases; yields climb
🧠 RATIONALE: Clears path for resumed global expansion

────────────
⚠️ SCENARIO-BASED MARKET COMMENTARY FOR RESEARCH AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
────────────

#ftse #dax #ndq #dow #spx #spy #trump #trading #iranwar #stocks #usdjpy #btc #investing #gold

[Mark @MTrad25]

UK unemployment dropped to 4.9%, well below the 5.2% the month before and much lower than estimates.

Wage growth including bonuses slowed to 3.8%, excluding them it weakened to 3.6%. Both are a little ahead of economist forecasts.

This appears to be a messy set of data on first glance, so taking firm conclusions may be difficult.

The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% is unexpected, so we’ll dig into that further to see how that was driven.

On the top-line wage growth, the reading for the prior month was revised up to 4.1% from 3.9%. That means that the slowdown to 3.8% is the same size as had been expected, just at a higher level overall.

#gbpusd #ftse #ukwages #ukunemployment #unemployment #pound #interestrates

[Mark @MTrad25]

#ARQQ Key Financial & Business Updates (April 2026)
Preliminary H1 2026 Results: On 10 April, expects rev of approx $620,000 to $630,000 for the first half of the fiscal yr ended 31 March 2026.
This is a significant increase compared to $67,000 for in ‘25 https://t.co/Dd38HJ8ayi

[Mark @MTrad25]

#OPEX #FTSE

All set to watch that ftse at 10am - 1015am... could be a wild one today, stay safe! I would be wary about holding positions on the ftse into this time... likewise on the #DAX an hour or so later!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The value of US data centers under construction has officially surpassed the value of office buildings under construction for the first time in history.

Data centers under construction are up+29% YoY, to a record $45.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the value of offices under construction are down -13%, to $43.5 billion, the lowest since October 2015.

Since November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched, data center construction is up +228%.

Over that same period, office construction is down -38%.

AI is reshaping the US economy.

[Mark @MTrad25]

#FRG - HIGHLIGHTS

· Kiln 2 performance continues to improve, with discharge rates of over
60 tonnes per day ("tpd") being achieved.

· Work has commenced bringing Kilns 3 and 4 online, with commissioning
expected in Q3 and Q4, respectively.

· Hydrated lime circuit expanded to four operating units, with a fifth
under construction.

· Limestone milling circuit installation progressing, with
commissioning targeted for Q3.

· Commercial engagement increasing across mining, agricultural and
industrial markets.

Youval Rasin, Chairman and Interim Chief Executive Officer of Firering,
commented: "We are pleased with the continued operational progress at Limeco,
with Kiln 2 performing in line with expectations as ramp-up advances towards
its targeted output. At the same time, bringing Kilns 3 and 4 online has
commenced as part of our planned capacity expansion. These developments
position Limeco to increase production to meet the growing demand for our lime
products."

[Mark @MTrad25]

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore, is quoted in our latest markets wrap:

“The Iran disruption once again reinforces that this is not just a supply story. It is increasingly about security of flows and transport-cost shock.”

Brent may rally to $150 a barrel or even higher as the Middle East crisis could last for months, spurring physical shortfalls, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Crude-oil futures may get the headlines, but the follow-through impact on products, especially diesel, is profound and will carry major consequences for industrial activity, inflation and popular perceptions of the crisis.

Diesel is not at all glamorous, but it is vital. Think of it as a lifeblood product for freight, agriculture and construction industries, both in the US and across the world. There’s now a risk that average US retail diesel prices will top $5 a gallon. The last time that happened was in 2022.

#ftse #dax #spx #ndq #usdjpy #oil #iranwar #investing #trading #trump #brent

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It doesn't get more textbook than this:

Every step of our March 3rd "Conflict Playbook" has been outlined on this oil price chart.

It began with Steps #1 and #2 when Trump sent an "armada" to Iran and ramped up threats.

On February 27th, we saw the "Friday night strikes" from Step #3 of our playbook.

This led to Step #4 as risk premiums were rapidly priced-in.

On March 3rd, President Trump began saying the war could last "forever," as expected in Step #5.

Then, on Friday and last night, markets began pricing in Step #6, a prolonged conflict sending oil prices to $120/barrel.

Finally, today at 3:20 PM ET, President Trump hinted at "conditional de-escalation" from Step #7 of our Conflict Playbook.

We are now nearing Step #8. Keep following along.

[Mark @MTrad25]

@DavidBurton1971 should go to prison

[Mark @MTrad25]

📘 DAILY MACRO PLAYBOOK
📅 MON 09 MAR 2026
────────────
Daily Macro & Trading Playbook with Risk Sentiments Explained
🟢 Risk-On: Iran de-escalates; Ukraine aid secured; US-China summit progress
🔴 Risk-Off: Iran regional retaliation; Russia nuclear posturing; oil supply disruptions

────────────
🌍 EVENT 1: US-Israeli Strikes Escalate Iran Tensions
📝CONTEXT:
- US and Israel launched strikes on Iran over weekend, killing top officials including Supreme Leader
- Iran vows attacks on US regional assets and allies' infrastructure
- Trump signals sustained engagement and rallies Iranian public against regime

🧩 Iran Launches Limited Retaliatory Strikes (Geopolitical Futures)
🎯 FOCUS: Equities softer; oil higher; defence stronger
🧠 RATIONALE: Regional risk premium lifts energy, hits growth assets

🧩 US Announces Regime Change Push
🎯 FOCUS: Yields lower; gold firmer; equities mixed
🧠 RATIONALE: Geopolitical uncertainty boosts safe havens, caps risk

🧩 Tehran Signals Ceasefire Talks
🎯 FOCUS: Equities firmer; oil softer; yields higher
🧠 RATIONALE: De-escalation eases energy fears, supports reflation

────────────
🌍 EVENT 2: Fallout from Weekend Iran Attacks
📝CONTEXT:
- Iranian strikes hit Gulf states following US-Israeli action
- Trump weighs broader military objectives amid heightened Middle East volatility
- Markets brace for oil supply risks if conflict spreads

🧩 Gulf Oil Infrastructure Targeted
🎯 FOCUS: Oil surges; equities weaker; USD stronger
🧠 RATIONALE: Supply shock transmission to inflation, risk-off flows

🧩 Israel-US Coordinate Follow-On Operations
🎯 FOCUS: Defence rallies; yields fall; gold up
🧠 RATIONALE: Escalation heightens haven demand, caps cyclical bets

🧩 Iran Proposes Regional Deconfliction
🎯 FOCUS: Risk assets recover; oil eases; EM firmer
🧠 RATIONALE: Stabilisation lowers premia across commodities, equities

────────────
🌍 EVENT 3: Ukraine Aid Funding Deadlock Persists
📝CONTEXT:
- Europe debates expanded loans and NATO pledges amid protracted war
- Russia innovates missile tech; Ukraine pushes for deep-strike capabilities
- Trump negotiations test Western resolve on sanctions and support

🧩 EU Secures Ukraine Loan Consensus
🎯 FOCUS: Equities steadier; yields mixed; EUR firmer
🧠 RATIONALE: Aid flow reduces default fears, supports peripherals

🧩 Russia Escalates Eastern Advances
🎯 FOCUS: Equities softer; gold higher; defence up
🧠 RATIONALE: Frontline risks spur rearmament, haven bids

🧩 Trump Brokers Partial Ceasefire
🎯 FOCUS: Risk-on rotation; yields rise; oil softer
🧠 RATIONALE: De-escalation lifts growth outlook, eases fiscal strains

────────────
🌍 EVENT 4: Russia Signals Nuclear Posture Shift
📝CONTEXT:
- New START Treaty nears expiration without renewal
- Moscow prepares Victory Day parade display of military might
- US-Russia arms control vacuum raises escalation risks

🧩 Russia Deploys New Missile Systems
🎯 FOCUS: Yields plunge; gold surges; equities down
🧠 RATIONALE: Nuclear fears drive flight to quality assets

🧩 US Proposes Bilateral Arms Talks
🎯 FOCUS: Equities recover; yields stabilise; defence softer
🧠 RATIONALE: Dialogue eases tensions, caps volatility premia

🧩 Treaty Extension Discussions Emerge
🎯 FOCUS: Risk assets firmer; USD eases; yields up
🧠 RATIONALE: Stability restores confidence in global security

────────────
⚠️ SCENARIO-BASED MARKET COMMENTARY FOR RESEARCH AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
────────────

#ftse #dax #spx #ndq #dow #usdjpy #gold #trump #oil #iran

[Mark @MTrad25]

Selling swept across regions and asset classes as the geopolitical flareup added fresh stress to markets that are already under pressure from AI disruptions and worries about the potential for cracks in credit markets. The escalating crisis has left investors caught between the risk of renewed inflation stemming from elevated oil prices and signs of cooling in the US labor market.

“It’s fear positioning,” with people taking profits from markets and adopting a wait-and-see approach, said Anna Wu, cross-asset strategist at Van Eck Associates Corp. “Markets are pricing in an escalation of conflict.”

“The damage already done to the outlook for inflation and growth globally will spur investors to adjust their expectations toward a much harsher environment, threatening sustained declines for equities and bonds. A release of petroleum reserves does nothing to alter the fundamentally bearish outlook for assets.”— Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader

#ftse -#dax #spx #ndq #dow #usdjpy #gold #btc #trump #trading #investing #iranwar

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Investors are hedging against a credit market crash at an accelerating pace:

Put option open interest in US large credit ETFs, $HYG, $JNK, $LQD, and $BKLN, is at a record ~11.5 million contracts.

The total number of outstanding contracts on these funds has DOUBLED over the last 12 months.

By comparison, the 2022 bear market high was 10.0 million contracts.

Meanwhile, tech high-yield credit spreads surged to 556 basis points, surpassing the April 2025 highs and reaching the widest level since October 2023.

By comparison, the all sector high-yield spreads stand at 361 basis points, the highest since November 2025.

This means tech junk bonds are now trading at a +195 basis point premium to the rest of the market, the highest in at least 3 years.

The credit market selloff may just be getting started.

[Mark @MTrad25]

🌅 MORNING MISSIVE
📅 TUE 03 MAR 2026
────────────

📊 MARKET PULSE 📊

- US EQUITIES ELEVATED BUT SENSITIVE TO NFP, RETAIL SALES DATA CLUSTER THIS WEEK
- ASIAN MARKETS DIVE 2-3% ON IRAN STRIKE ESCALATION, NIKEI DOWN 2.4%
- GOLD SURGES ABOVE $5000, GAPS 3% HIGHER ON SAFE HAVEN FLOWS
- OIL SPIKES POST US-ISRAEL STRIKES ON IRAN, EYES $74-75 RESISTANCE
- USD MIXED AS EM FLOWS OUT OF US, SMALL CAPS DROP 1.2% LAST WEEK
- FED HOLDS RATES AT 3.50-3.75%, HAWKISH TONE ON SOLID GROWTH
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS REPRICE RISK PREMIA ACROSS ENERGY, VOLATILITY
- CORE INFLATION STICKY AT 2.5% Y/Y, TARIFFS POSE UPSIDE RISKS

────────────

💹 KEY OVERNIGHT RATES 💹

SP500 6,875.80
NAS100 24,960.90
XAUUSD 5,321.94
WTI 71.16
BTC 69,440.00
ETH 2,044.12
EURUSD 1.1690
GBPUSD 1.3405
USDJPY 157.36

────────────

🗞️ TOP HEADLINES 🗞️

• Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in US-Israeli strikes, state media confirms. RTRS
• Gold futures gap 3% higher amid safe-haven rush as Middle East conflict escalates. BBG
• Nikkei 225 plunges 2.4% at open, ASX 200 dips on geopolitical shock. CNBC
• Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, statement leans hawkish on economy. WSJ
• January CPI eases to 2.4% headline but core services inflation climbs 0.6% ex-housing. FT
• Oil rallies sharply after Iran attack, breaks key resistance toward $75. RTRS
• Defensive sectors lead: US utilities +3%, consumer staples +2.4% last week. BBG
• APAC PMIs, Australia GDP loom as regional growth read amid risk-off tone. CNBC

────────────

📅 FOCUS EVENTS - (GMT) 📅

ASIA SESSION:
00:30 — 🇦🇺 AU ★★☆: Building Permits MoM Prel
04:00 — 🇯🇵 JP ★★☆: BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

EU SESSION:
10:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: Inflation Rate MoM Flash
10:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★☆: Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
10:00 — 🇪🇺 EU ★★★: Inflation Rate YoY Flash
10:30 — 🇬🇧 UK ★★☆: Spring Economic Statement

US SESSION:
14:55 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: Fed Williams Speech
16:55 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: Fed Kashkari Speech
21:30 — 🇺🇸 US ★★☆: API Crude Oil Stock Change
22:00 — 🇦🇺 AU ★★☆: Ai Group Industry Index

POST MARKET / ASIA EARLY:
N/A

────────────
⚠️ TRADING DESK / STAY DISCIPLINED INTO THE DATA WINDOWS. RESEARCH AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
────────────

#ftse #dad #spx #ndq #trump #iranwar #usiranwar #investing #trading #usdjpy #gold #oil

[Mark @MTrad25]

📘 DAILY MACRO PLAYBOOK
📅 FRI 27 FEB 2026
────────────
Daily Macro & Trading Playbook with Risk Sentiments Explained
🟢 Risk-On: Fed pivot narrative gains traction amid dovish Warsh nomination and labour market stabilisation
🔴 Risk-Off: Inflation persistence and tariff-pass-through risks keep rate-hike scenario alive; policy uncertainty ahead of leadership transition ---

────────────
🌍 EVENT 1: Fed Leadership Transition & Monetary Policy Regime Shift
📝CONTEXT:
- Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed Chair, signalling potential dovish tilt versus Powell's data-dependent approach
- Recent FOMC minutes reveal deep internal divisions: some officials favour further cuts if inflation moderates; others advocate extended pause or even rate hikes if price pressures persist
- Warsh's early commentary suggests openness to rate cuts this year, contrasting with hawkish contingent within Committee

🧩 Warsh confirmation accelerates market repricing toward easing cycle
🎯 FOCUS: Equities rally; long-duration assets outperform; USD softens
🧠 RATIONALE: Dovish Fed chair signals lower-for-longer rates trajectory

🧩 Tariff-driven inflation forces Warsh to maintain hawkish rhetoric initially
🎯 FOCUS: Yields steepen; equities consolidate; commodity currencies firm
🧠 RATIONALE: Inflation persistence constrains near-term policy flexibility

🧩 Policy communication overhaul removes forward guidance; markets price uncertainty premium
🎯 FOCUS: Volatility spikes; safe-haven demand rises; equity risk premium widens
🧠 RATIONALE: Reduced Fed transparency increases macro forecast dispersion ---

────────────
🌍 EVENT 2: Structural Inflation Dynamics – Tariffs vs. Disinflation
📝CONTEXT:
- Goods inflation affected by tariff implementation; services inflation declining steadily through 2025
- IMF baseline expects inflation to return to Fed's 2% target by early 2027, contingent on tariff effects waning
- Business surveys indicate companies planning price increases in 2026 to offset tariff costs; productivity gains from AI may partially offset pass-through

🧩 Tariff costs fully transmitted to consumer prices; disinflation stalls
🎯 FOCUS: Real yields higher; equities under pressure; USD strengthens
🧠 RATIONALE: Inflation expectations re-anchor above Fed target; policy tightens

🧩 AI productivity offsets tariff inflation; soft landing narrative intact
🎯 FOCUS: Equities firm; yields compress; cyclicals outperform defensives
🧠 RATIONALE: Supply-side boost allows Fed to cut without inflation risk

🧩 Partial pass-through creates stagflationary backdrop; policy paralysis
🎯 FOCUS: Volatility elevated; gold rallies; credit spreads widen
🧠 RATIONALE: Conflicting signals prevent clear policy direction ---

────────────
🌍 EVENT 3: Labour Market Resilience & Fed Rate-Cut Threshold
📝CONTEXT:
- January jobs report showed hiring pickup; vast majority of FOMC agreed labour market risks have diminished
- Fed staff baseline projects federal funds rate of 3.25–3.5% by end-2026, consistent with full employment and 2% inflation
- Material labour market deterioration would be required to justify larger easing than baseline; current data does not support this

🧩 Labour market weakens unexpectedly; Fed forced into emergency easing mode
🎯 FOCUS: Equities volatile; duration assets rally; credit spreads spike
🧠 RATIONALE: Recession fears override inflation concerns; risk-off dominates

🧩 Employment remains resilient; Fed maintains patient, data-dependent stance
🎯 FOCUS: Yields stable; equities range-bound; financials outperform
🧠 RATIONALE: No urgency for cuts; policy normalisation continues gradually

🧩 Wage growth accelerates amid tight labour market; inflation re-emerges
🎯 FOCUS: Real yields rise; equities sell off; USD appreciates
🧠 RATIONALE: Wage-price spiral risks force Fed to hold or hike ---

#ftse #dax #spx #ndq #trump #investing #trading #usdjpy #gbpusd #wages

[Mark @MTrad25]

📘 DAILY MACRO PLAYBOOK
📅 THU 26 FEB 2026
────────────
Daily Macro & Trading Playbook with Risk Sentiments Explained
🟢 Risk-On: German-China diplomatic engagement signals potential de-escalation in tech tensions; Mexico's cartel action reduces narco-state risk premium.
🔴 Risk-Off: Iran nuclear standoff enters critical 15-day window with largest US naval force since Gulf War; geopolitical tail risks at multi-year highs. ---

────────────
🌍 EVENT 1: Iran Nuclear Standoff – Imminent Escalation Risk
📝CONTEXT:
- Trump administration has issued 15-day ultimatum for Iran to present detailed nuclear disarmament proposal; largest US naval force since first Gulf War now positioned in Persian Gulf.
- Talks scheduled between Iranian leadership and US envoys (Witkoff, Kushner) contingent on substantive Iranian nuclear proposal; Trump has signalled willingness to order strikes at any time.
- Strait of Hormuz disruption would trigger immediate energy shock; geopolitical premium in crude, volatility across risk assets, safe-haven flows into duration.

🧩 Iran rejects or delays substantive nuclear proposal
🎯 FOCUS: Oil rallies; equities soften; yields compress; gold rallies; USD strengthens.
🧠 RATIONALE: Strait of Hormuz disruption risk spikes; flight to safety.

🧩 Iran presents credible disarmament framework
🎯 FOCUS: Oil retreats; equities firmer; yields higher; gold softer; EM currencies stabilise.
🧠 RATIONALE: De-escalation narrative reduces geopolitical premium; risk appetite returns.

🧩 Military action initiated by US
🎯 FOCUS: Oil spikes sharply; equities crash; yields plunge; gold surges; USD rallies hard.
🧠 RATIONALE: Immediate supply shock plus systemic risk-off cascade across all markets. ---

────────────
🌍 EVENT 2: Mexico Cartel Decapitation – Narco-State Risk Recalibration
📝CONTEXT:
- Mexican Army killed CJNG leader "El Mencho" in unprecedented military operation against country's largest drug cartel; signals potential structural shift in security dynamics.
- Success reduces near-term cartel violence risk and strengthens government credibility; however, cartel fragmentation could trigger turf wars and supply chain disruptions.
- Mex-US trade relationship and nearshoring narrative depend on sustained security improvements; market pricing of Mex risk premium will adjust based on follow-through.

🧩 Military consolidates gains; cartel fragmentation contained
🎯 FOCUS: Mexican peso firms; EM equities supported; US supply chain anxiety eases.
🧠 RATIONALE: Reduced narco-violence supports nearshoring thesis; Mexico risk premium compresses.

🧩 Cartel splinters; turf violence escalates
🎯 FOCUS: Mexican peso weakens; EM volatility rises; nearshoring narrative questioned.
🧠 RATIONALE: Fragmentation creates power vacuum; short-term security deterioration likely.

🧩 US-Mexico security cooperation deepens
🎯 FOCUS: Mexican assets outperform; bilateral trade sentiment improves; EM risk appetite returns.
🧠 RATIONALE: Coordinated approach signals sustained commitment to regional stability. ---

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🌍 EVENT 3: Germany-China Bilateral Reset – Tech Tensions Modulation
📝CONTEXT:
- German Chancellor Merz visiting Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang; follows hawkish rhetoric at Munich Security Conference but signals willingness to "find right balance of cooperation."
- Outcome will test whether EU can pursue strategic autonomy without full decoupling from China; critical for European tech supply chains and industrial policy.
- Mkt sensitivity centres on whether EU-China tensions ease or harden; affects semiconductor supply chain confidence, European equity valuations, and yuan stability.

🧩 Merz secures preferential trade/investment framework
🎯 FOCUS: European equities firmer; tech stocks supported; yuan stabilises; EUR strengthens.
🧠 RATIONALE: De-escalation narrative reduces China decoupling risk; supply chain confidence improves.
#ftse #dax #spx #dow