MaXinhui

Chinese-Japanese Simultaneous Interpreter. Trader

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Exit Strategy

The balance between 'letting winners ride' and 'not roundtripping to zero' is thin.

95% either sell everything too early or hold back to zero.

Hardly any talk about this, so let’s dive in: 👇🧵

1. Mindset

1.1 Acceptance and understand the goal
Accept you won’t sell everything at the top—it’s not the goal.

95% of the people try this, and 99% sell too early or hold to zero.

Set a new goal: sell higher than you bought and leave with more money than you started.

1.2 Don't compare yourself
Seeing others make millions doesn’t mean you’ve failed if you don't hit that while managing a 4-digit portfolio.

$10k is a lot.
$100k is a lot.
$1m is a lot.

It’s all relative.

Chasing Twitter exceptions will make you roundtrip. Don’t aim for their numbers—focus on growing what you have.

1.3 Longer term view
Stop aiming to get rich and retire this cycle. Most will feel it’s not enough at the end, even with multiples of what they started with.

This mindset leads to roundtripping. Think long-term.

Each cycle teaches you many lessons, and if you can manage to also end up with a big cash increase into the next bear market, you can compound gains and knowledge in the next cycle.

Many underestimate it how powerful it is to have a lot of cash into the next big downtrend.

Don’t aim to make it this cycle—aim for the next or the one after.

A few might get lucky with big wins, but most roundtrip 5-7 figures chasing more.

2. Have a plan
Don’t plan with the euphoric you during parabolic moves and falling dominance.

Plan with the current you:
> How will I scale out?
> Where (target zones) will I sell more?
> What do I not want to see in the markets?
> What do I do when I do see it?
> What if a position moves early but super hard?

3. Selling habit and gradually over time
Selling during strong price moves is hard—you’ll feel like it will keep going and you’ll miss out.

Start now by selling small batches to build a habit and become more robotic.

Set a slow pace (e.g., sell 0.5%-1% every two weeks) and create rules for when to increase limits.

Focus on building the habit first—your portfolio will still grow. Later, shift to larger selling volumes as needed.

You have to have a plan with certain metrics and things you want to see to understand where to increase the selling.

Aim to capture the bulk of the move gradually, not by selling everything at the top.

4. Change your life
If a position outperforms the market and prints beyond expectations, forget your targets—secure the money.

Sell half or more, cash out, and change your life.

5. Lock it truly in.
If you sell but leave the cash or Bitcoin on the exchange, and euphoria kicks in later. Still overconfident from your last win, you’re back in—chasing the next 100x your favorite influencer found.

Cash-out or move it to a hardware wallet. Make it harder to access and keep it safe.

6. Stop rotating
You put $1,000 into a token; it’s now $5,000, and you sold. Great! Do it again, and it’s $50,000. You’re sitting on $50k, thinking, “One more time, and I’ll make life-changing money.”

Your money goes into the next “cancer-curing” altcoin. It dips, but in a bull market, dips get bought up, right? This time it dips deeper and doesn’t bounce. You hold, telling yourself, “diamond hands.”

It’s now worth $20k. You feel terrible but keep holding. The market nukes again, and you’re now a community member. A year later, it’s worth $750—you’ve roundtripped everything.

Stop rotating endlessly. Secure money and sell to cash out, not to chase the next plan. The longer the uptrend lasts, the more euphoric and irrational you’ll get. Protect your gains—take them out.

7. Example plan (rough draft for inspiration)

*Make your own plan*

A) I’ll start selling a mini amount daily/weekly to build the habit and starting today.

B) Once the Total Altcoin or 'Others' chart shows 1-2+ weekly candles in price discovery, I’ll slowly increase these amounts. (and will again increase after x)

C) If a play outperforms my portfolio or gives me life-changing money, I’ll take it out—no matter where we are in the cycle.

D) If we hit a key zone (BTC, Total Altcoin, or your preferred chart), I’ll increase my daily/weekly selling volume again.

E) Certain price action or indicator, whatever you like: If we see a blow-off top, a blow-off candle, or a bearish market structure break, I’ll sell X% or increase my selling volume.

F) Come up with things yourself 😄

Making it is simple, but keeping it isn't easy.

Have you heard about the gambler who walked away with $1M and never returned? Me neither.

Most will make it, but very few will still be good in the next bear.

This market is gambling on attention; attention will fade away.

99.9% of the tokens will trade lower again in the future.

Secure profits.

[Altcoin Sherpa @AltcoinSherpa]

Most of your bags should be packed already. The new positions that you enter should mostly just be trades; coins that you don't plan on holding for a tremendous amount of time. The next 4 months are for selling, not buying too many 'long conviction holds'. Do not forget this

[George @George1Trader]

If #btc does scenario below and tests sub 90k, plan for #eth would be something like this.

Sweep lows into range low retest, then rip up to new highs.

[CJ @CJ900X]

$ETH

Changed my mind. Won't be setting resting bids into the 3100-3200 zone now given the daily outlook.

Playing this as a range instead.

Sweep Range Low -> Reclaim -> Long

Otherwise, will look to the HTF demand zone ~ 2600-2800.

[Rager @Rager]

$BTC still has a way to go as far as upside

I use the Pi Cycle Top indicator for potential signs of a top for Bitcoin price

It's called the last 3 tops of the bull market within a couple days

It's a matter of "when", not "if", for Bitcoin to go higher into 2025

[CrypNuevo 🔨 @CrypNuevo]

$SOL

In the context that BTC retraces a bit more to $88k or $85k...

Potential deviation below previous high and daily 50EMA holds, not seeing lower than $200 I think.

My potential last spot buy will be there, around $205 (dynamic target based on 1D50EMA).

[Pierre @pierre_crypt0]

spammed a lot already with this thread today... but highlights current BTC situation well + explains the "gap fills" I'm talking about often + gives examples

tldr really is "H4 100 MA BTC must hold"

but if you want to dig a bit deeper I tried to explains things

GL HF :)

[EliZ @eliz883]

you need to focus on 4 aspects

1 - main trend
2 - liquidity and order book
3 - 0.75 confluence on main trend h4 h12
4 - supports and resistance on the rise that controls the BTC market to seek confluence

Follow this roadmap per good strategy

[CrypNuevo 🔨 @CrypNuevo]

$ENA

In the context that BTC retraces a bit more to $88k or $85k...

Looking for one last entry at around $0.50 - $0.48.

Keeping it simple: Support --> Resistance

[CrypNuevo 🔨 @CrypNuevo]

$ETH

In the context that BTC retraces a bit more to $88k or $85k...

Looking for the 1D50EMA to catch up with price and allign with that last support at psychological level $3k.

Those are my three reasons to why we could see a leg up from there, and not lower. I'll add size.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

I am not against memes, but meme coins are getting "a little" weird now.

Let's build real applications using blockchain.

[Tim @wangqingyu2022]

@Imlaomao 还是流动性问题，现在的场内不能算btc etf那派。上轮超级大牛，cex 有币安 ftx ok 火币 场内资金源源不断。现在ftx 倒台，抽走了很大一部分流动性，尽管现在btc etf通过了，但是并不是我们这个场内资金，所以可以看到大饼正规军进场老美市场，反而还吸了币圈的大量资金的血，所以山寨game over了

[paulwei @coolish]

所谓健身先健脑，分享一些断续健身快20年的经验感悟，和炒币貌似不太相关，但也有些关系，最后面会讲。

首先一个大部分人不喜欢听到的真相：

普通健身房里做无氧器械运动的人，
至少60%的人是在无效健身，如果目的是想要增肌塑形的话，
尤其、哪怕是在教练的带领下。

这是教练的收入模式、人性趋利使然决定的，
教练的目的是，在你身上收到尽可能多的课时费，
而他们一般心知肚明，真正“有效”的训练你达到增肌塑形的方式，
是大概率会把你“吓跑”的。因为要增肌塑形，训练容量必须达到能突破你上限负荷的程度，
而不可能是我们在健身房里看到的多数带练状态：表情从容、呼吸均匀...

有效的训练过程本身，非常枯燥，甚至有痛苦，
为了从你身上收到更多的课时费，教练会默认先让你轻松练，和加入各种不痛苦的花里胡哨，
比如所谓的“拉伸课”，本质上相当于按摩，
无论练前还是练后，对增肌塑形其实没用（如图，可参考很多论文）。
但能让你觉得“拉伸我需要这个教练才能进行”“很舒服解压”，
然后就愿意交更多的课时费。

前阵子我在健身房里，亲耳听到一个资深教练对一个会员说，“真给你好好练的话，估计你半个月就不见人影不来了。”（正好人很少，没有别人在的时候）。

因为，
一个动作用2kg重量做50次，不如用10kg重量做10次，
虽然2x50和10x10一样，结果都=100
但前者你没有什么压力很从容，后者就会有痛苦，做完可能大口喘气。

这就好比什么呢：
你在2米的高度往下跳50次，和在10米的高度往下跳10次，
都是下降100米，但是前者你可能安然无恙，后者就已经骨折甚至一开始就已经摔死。

而很多人知道，增肌塑形的原理，是破坏肌肉，让其轻微受伤，然后超量恢复的循环。
所以在2米的高度往下跳再多次，都不会有任何改变，就像你走路走再远，腿肌肉也不会变大。

好，说了这么多，你知道“有效”的健身过程是痛苦的，
那么为什么健身过程如此痛苦，有部分人能做得很好呢？

健身成果卓越，或者身材稍显不错的人，可能经常会听到别人褒奖：
“你好自律”“你能坚持，我觉得好难”
言下之意，就是觉得“意志力比一般人强，更能忍受痛苦的过程”
真相可能略微反直觉：
这是错误的归因，或者至少不是能帮助你实现走向卓越的正反馈循环的正确归因思路。
因为在我的概念里，人能把一件貌似“过程痛苦”的事情，“长期”做到和保持卓越，
绝不应该是“意志力”推动的，而是“正确、持续的正反馈”，也就是“一直做一直有奖励回报”。
而大部分人的所谓“意志力”，应该都是在一个数量级差不多的，毕竟都是凡人，
极少有人，能在没有什么奖励回报的情况下，去长期坚持做一件事情。

而“一直做一直有奖励回报”的前提，就是：
方法、策略符合科学、尽量正确、高效（而很多真相都是反直觉的）
这就是为什么，开篇说的“健身先健脑”。
在错误的方法下，经历痛苦的过程就会很难得到回报，
没有正常人的所谓意志力，能在这样欠缺奖励回报的情况下坚持执行下去。如果不是因为奖励回报，我一次都不想去。

所以对于健身教练来说，这确实就意味着一种两难境地：
是让会员轻松练，不容易吓跑他，就能至少赚他个10~20节课？
好处是，等他发现没有奖励回报了，是一两个月后的事了，到时至少几千上万元到手了（短视趋利）
还是让会员认真辛苦练，但可能一上来就吓跑他？
这样就是，只筛选不会被吓跑的人（真正对健身奖励回报有足够渴望的人，而不是说意志力强），向他提供更长期的有价值服务。
可能对于大部分教练来说，决定其收入水平的其中一个点，
就是懂不懂如何“看人下菜”，看这个会员对于健身方面的“奖励回报”有多渴望，
然后因材施教采取不同策略来对待。

但无论如何，教练面对的大环境困境是，
东亚社会相对其他地区，在健身身材这方面的社会认可价值，相对没那么高，
所以要筛选出有足够渴望的人，并不容易。

再继续说就越扯越广了，咱们从前面说的，联系回炒币，跟炒币是个什么关系呢？
我很多次遇到和圈内人交流，尤其是稍有经验但还不专业的玩家，会问我：
“像你这样专门做二级交易的，是不是得非常自律，都严格保持一些交易逻辑、原则？”
言下之意，也是“是不是你严格执行的意志力很强”。
其实不是，我是白羊座，内在本性其实是个想到什么事情，就心急火燎去做的人。
我2013年开始炒币，回顾过去，我至少直到2019年，
入币市那5年多里都和大部分玩家差不多，可简单归纳为整体还是个“情绪玩家”。
比如，不愿意离场，是因为自己觉得还赚得不够多，贪念还没满足，哪怕已经具备了多年的技术分析经验。
比如，跟趋势做多后赚到钱，哪怕已经减仓甚至离场了，看到身边总还有人还能赚到鱼尾机会，竟还会大举重仓杀回来去追高，因为还有“不甘”。
等等。

那是怎么从“情绪玩家”转变成“理性玩家”的呢？
是因为本身自律，或者怎么锻炼出意志力了？不是。
和健身一样，是在这个市场里，经历过2~4轮完整牛熊后的正负反馈，教会我的。
或者说，2013~2019，经历了很多次靠情绪赚到的钱，再因为情绪亏回去，这种负反馈，
以及加上，2019年后，尝试去执行比情绪炒币更科学的理性方法之后，得到了长期的正反馈，
让反馈来推动我成长、变化成“好像很自律、有意志力”的样子，意志力是表面的表现方式，而不是原因。

换句简单粗暴的话来说，比如，我“阻止自己再次返贫”的防御力提升，是因为过去自己把自己搞返贫次数足够了，切身感受过多次那样的经历太煎熬痛苦了，不想也无力再经历多一次了。这种“玩过火才知道火是烫”的反馈，才是表面上所谓好像自律有原则，不容易摇摆矫枉过正的底层原因。再加上，“直到新的机会总会再有，到时候可以再玩”经历的正反馈，让自己没有那么焦虑，建设健康心态。

只有事教人，没有人教人。

而在币圈，要获得对自己有帮助的正负反馈，有一个极其增加难度的大环境因素：
周期性。
就好比是，币圈有春夏秋冬，
你在秋天总结的，自以为正确/错误的方法规律，
在春天夏天可能又相反，变得错误/正确了，
于是不断在自我认可甚至膨胀，和自我否定怀疑之间摇摆，在得到稳定的正反馈之前，大部分人就已经退出市场了。
而那个带你进圈、教你炒币人，哪怕他很专业厉害，也有耐心带你，他也会像上述我说的健身教练一样，面临一种两难境地：
到底是用带你赚一把爽的？（但明知可能这会让你自大，从而又自己去乱玩）
还是带你用长期稳定的方法？（但你对长期回报有足够渴望吗？）

健身好歹是辛苦一两个月，就能获得明显奖励回报的，且越科学正确的方法，越只赚不亏。
而炒币，一轮春夏秋冬至少2年起，且就算是对长期来说好的方法，短期也有让你自我怀疑的困境，成长的过程也必然要经历亏或错过的过程。
所以，炒币必然是比健身还难得多。
我个人总结，打算在币圈长期玩，要有这种预期和觉悟：
经历
第一轮牛市甚至可能是纯交学费，
第二轮深刻体验什么叫赚到再亏回去，
第三轮才开始尝试怎么把赚到的留住。
至少按我的各方面情况来说，是这样的过程，可能更有天赋和条件更好的聪明玩家，能更缩减提前，比如在1~2轮里完成这个成长过程，但节奏应该也大致如此。

先说这么多，太长了。

[CryptoSoulz @SoulzBTC]

$BTC Update

1. #Bitcoin has taken the Liquidity from the highs at $73,000 and retraced.

2. Expect a bounce to $70,000, to then retrace again to current lows.

3. BUY ZONE ideally for SPOT is at $66,000.

4. $BTC Dominance is increasing, that's why Altcoins retraced yesterday.

[桃子队长 @capmmk]

小红书整体框架和玩法

#资料分享

这份文档介绍了小红书的整体框架及玩法，涵盖了小红书的核心运营策略和具体操作方法，以下是开启小红书副业的核心内容。

[luca wu @wulujia]

推荐一下自家产品。我自己喜欢用，是因为时不时走在路上，会有些灵感，打字记录挺麻烦。用 Slax Note，可以方便地录音、转文字、润色为可以直接对外分发的文本（支持自定义 Prompt）、分享好看的海报。

而且，时不时回听自己说的一段话时，还会激发新的想法，很有意思。

[CJ @CJ900X]

#BTC

Choppy range over the couple of weeks. According to the diagonals we're coming into an apex soon. Recent SFP may be the market showing its hand so I'd lean towards up first. Eyes on local range high at 69.5k as well as those equal highs above at 70.6k.

Ultimately, would like to see lower before the larger range breakout move happens (74k+) but we'll see.

Plan a little less concrete this week - just a matter of waiting until levels of interest are tagged.

But ideally:

69.5-70.6 -> sub 65k -> range breakout 74k+

[henu王凯 @henuwangkai]

共享下我长期阅读的AI、互联网、播客等领域的优质信源组，可以直接一键添加到自己的订阅列表：
1、AI信源组
此分组包含我认为非常优质、垂直、专业的信源，诸如出门问问李志飞公众号、分享RAG实践的土猛员外、量子位、机器之心、前MiniMAX PM橘子、宝玉老师的网站等等。

https://t.co/UuwxDa0oNe

[AlphaBTC @mark_cullen]

So #Bitcoin took the liquidity to the upside first. I'm still not ruling out a sweep of the recent range low after seeing the H4 SFP $BTC could confirm in the next 30mins.

Equal leg down to the one on the 20th of May, to take the liquidity below the recent lows.

[lidang 立党 （劝人卖房/学CS/买SP500/纳100/OpenAI/Anthrop第一人） @lidangzzz]

老蒋跟我想说的完全一致