Macro Architect

Macro + BTC Swing Analyst | 서울

[Barchart @Barchart]

Hedge Funds have now built the largest Japanese Yen short position since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 🚨 Dear God 🤯

[The Macro Paper @macropaperr]

🇺🇸 US LONG-TERM BOND YIELDS ARE SOARING.

US 20Y bond yield just hit 5.08%, the highest level in 4 weeks.

US 30Y bond yield just hit 5.07%, the highest level in 7 weeks.

This is a sign that the market is now expecting higher inflation as the US and Iran have started striking each other again.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN BULL TRAP OF THIS ENTIRE BEAR MARKET IS FORMING NOW.

The July relief rally could push back above the 200 weekly moving average.

Then the flush, later this month or August.

Same script as 2022.

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🔥 UPDATE: Central banks are stacking gold at record levels, with global holdings now at their highest point this century.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

Bitcoin bulls are about to get trapped again.

Every single cycle ended the same way:

People called the bottom too early.
The market gave hope. Then Bitcoin nuked another 50-70%.

2015.
2016.
2017.

And now the exact same 6-bar structure is back again.

This is where Bitcoin usually delivers the most brutal flush of the cycle.

The real bottom might not even be in yet.

[Alphractal @Alphractal]

Since late April, Global M2 has stabilized and stopped rising.

This partly explains the weaker behavior we are seeing across equities and crypto.

What is even more interesting is the year-over-year change in Global M2. At least three times in Bitcoin’s history, when this variation turned negative, it coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms.

Now, this variation is falling again, although it is still far from negative territory.

This is something worth monitoring over the coming months, especially from a long-term perspective.

Dive deeper into our metrics and discover the true Alpha.

https://t.co/1cjMJtIoAw

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

1.엔 캐리 트레이드 (위험) : 외환 시장의 압박이 커진 상태.
https://t.co/YuDYE2OBgu 외환 시장 (위험): 달러 유출과 글로벌 위기 전염 지수가 모두 최고치 경고등.
3.비트코인 매수세 (양호): 고래들의 매수세가 받쳐주고 있으며, 패닉 셀(투매) 조짐 없이 질서정연하게 바닥을 다짐.

[Ted @TedPillows]

Yen Intervention seems to have started.

You know what happens next.

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

비트코인 Harmonic Oscillator 차트
(지금 시장이 사이클상 어디에 있는가?” 를 직관적으로 보여주는 도구)
기준으로 2026년도 9~10월이 바닥으로 예측되네요. 참고만 하세요.

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

일본 10년물이 3.0%를 돌파하거나, USD/JPY가 163을 넘으면 포지션 즉시 축소가 필요하다 판단. 그것이 트리거가 아닐까 싶음.

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

원인 3가지

① 이란 호르무즈 재위협 → 유가 급등 우려 → 인플레 재점화 → 금리인하 불가 → 채권 매도

② BOJ 7/31 금리인상 기대 → 일본 10년물 2.724%(+1.38%) 급등 → 엔캐리 청산 압박

③ 미국 JOLTS 760만 양호 → 노동시장 강해서 연준 금리 못 내림 → 미 10년물 4.467%(+1.02%) 급등

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

DTCC MULTI-CHAIN STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
제가 AI도움을 받아 만들어 봤어요. ^^

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

왜? 강 달러?
1. Fed 매파 충격 — 가장 핵심

2. 신임 의장 워시(Warsh) 효과

3. 인플레이션 전망 상향

4. 기술적 모멘텀
Fed가 금리 동결을 유지하면서도 연내 금리 인상 가능성을 시그널하자, 투자자들이 연내 추가 긴축 베팅을 높였고 DXY는 2025년 5월 이후 최고치로 올라섰다고 보네요. .

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

@hangul 꼭 당첨되시기를~~

[Macro Architect @MacroBae]

@SabuCoin 아무 의미없다에 한표 ㅋ

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

🖨️🖨️🖨️🖨️🖨️ M2 money supply update: Tomorrow the US Treasury starts Treasury buy-backs again $30 billion a month.

[MartyParty @martypartymusic]

Breaking: 🖨️🖨️🖨️🖨️Bank Of Japan starts up the printer July 31 2024 - US Dollar Funds-supplying operations against pooled collatoral program
- by which the Bank, after obtaining funds under the U.S. dollar-yen swap agreement with the Federal Reserve, extends U.S. dollar denominated loans to its counterparties, which are backed by collateral submitted to the Bank by them.

https://t.co/mPyLz55Ay4

H/t @BrosBalena

[CoinShares @CoinSharesCo]

This week, a slightly different fund flow report with 4 counter-intuitive facts about 2022.

Our Head of Research @Jbutterfill looks back at this eventful year.

Our Digital Asset Fund Flows Yearly is available here:
https://t.co/Jh3kzqf2nx

[Linqto @linqtoinc]

Ripple’s general counsel has confirmed that this is the last filing Ripple will make. Now, things are up to Judge Analisa Torres. Summary judgment for the case, according to former prosecutor James Filan, will take place “on or before March 31, 2023.”
https://t.co/cZG22gfzbg

[Institute for Supply Management @ism]

#ISMPMI survey respondent in Miscellaneous #Manufacturing: “Overall, supply chain conditions have stabilized tremendously since fourth quarter of 2021. Issues remain, but the list is quite a bit shorter. … (Our) outlook is positive for 2023.” https://t.co/ZkwhaYMwIJ #economy