MacroMagoo

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

My model, which consists of several hundred leading indicators for the stock market, is getting nervous. If the economic activity component deteriorates further, the z-score could fall below -1, a critical threshold that has reliably predicted bear markets in the past.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

On @cnbcAsiaTV this morning, @CommodMkt said, "Sell The Tweet, Buy The Molcule." Currie detailed that Trump tweeted five times that the war was effectively over, but it has not happened.

The chart shows my guess of the five times. Currie is correct. If you bought the crude oil collapse every time Trump said the war is over, you made $58, even though the price is only up $27 since the war started. Not a bad trading strategy!

We are currently on the 6th tweet saying that the war is over; it is still a work in progress.

Is this the next great crude oil buying opportunity?

[Dave Smith @ComicDaveSmith]

If Massie loses tonight, he should run for President.

If Massie wins tonight, he should run for President.

[TheMuslimLawyer @faisalkutty]

A deeply disturbing and meticulously documented report by historians Liat Kozma and Lee Mordechai of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem traces the starvation of Gaza over the past three years through data, testimony, official statements, food prices, aid access, and powerful visual storytelling.

The report documents not only the collapse of food access and humanitarian relief, but also the public rhetoric surrounding it, including statements by Israeli officials openly discussing restrictions on food, water, electricity, and aid. It shows how aid convoys became lifelines measured in “tons of survival,” while ordinary Palestinians faced destroyed roads, military checkpoints, looting, shortages, and impossible food prices.

One image that stays with me is their description of a sack of flour becoming “a month of life.” Another is the simple line: “The lack of access to food led to death by starvation.”

Whatever one’s politics, this is devastating reading. The fact that this report comes from Israeli scholars at a major Israeli university makes it even harder to dismiss.

Originally published in Hebrew in March and now available in English. Worth reading carefully and reflecting on.

The link to the full article is here -- https://t.co/QAKeQ42qJC

[John P. Hussman, Ph.D. @hussmanjp]

Not a forecast, not a projection, not an argument. Just basic arithmetic of valuations and returns FYI

[Richard @ricwe123]

Just watch this.....

[Richard @ricwe123]

Watch this: Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, lays out a blunt, hard-to-ignore warning in this Bloomberg TV interview.....

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

In 2017, we created a shelter -- @abrigo_hope -- for homeless dogs.

The idea was to hire homeless people on the street with their dogs, then help them us their income to leave the street permanently.

We're super excited about our newly built shelter that doubles our capacity:

[Pepe Escobar @RealPepeEscobar]

IRAN’S ONE MONTH DEADLINE:
THE BREAKDOWN

The Iranian proposal to end the war - delivered via Pakistan - contains 14 points.

Barbaria wanted a 2-month ceasefire.

Tehran: all the core issues must be resolved within ONE MONTH.

And the focus should be on ending the war for good - on all fronts: not a mere ceasefire.

Iran demands:

Written guarantees of non-aggression.

Withdrawal of U.S. forces from all areas surrounding Iran.

End of the naval blockade.

The release of frozen assets.

Payment of reparations.

A new mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran is already formalizing it).

The key points have been the same for weeks.

Consistency and continuity: they have been examined by all legal decision-making frameworks in the country.

Translation: the points are shared by Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as well as all relevant state authorities.

They reflect Iran’s inalienable rights.

So now the ball is in Barbaria’s court.

Trump has already rejected it.

Yet there might be room for negotiating some points.

Otherwise, it’s total collapse. And the war is back.

What’s certain is that there will be NO retreat.

Moreover, Tehran refuses to discuss the nuclear dossier without a permanent end to the war.

So that’s it: One Month.

Why Tehran can do that?

Because:

1. Iran de facto expelled the US from the Persian Gulf.

2. Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Iran imposed deterrence on the death cult - which will not dare to do anything without full Barbaria backing.

4. Iran broke Barbaria’s blockade.

THAT’s what inflicting an all-round strategic defeat is all about.

And the icing on the layer cake: the Persian strategy is directly coordinated with strategic partner CHINA.

Timed around the Goldfinger-Xi Dada summit in Beijing starting on May 14.

For which Goldfinger will arrive with ZERO cards.

The geopolitical consequences of all of the above are earth-shattering.

So it’s no wonder Barbaria is discombobulated.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The most extraordinary mountain road in China—the Lingpaishi Zigzag Highway in Wuxi, Chongqing.

Spanning just 450 meters, this mountain road features 18 hairpin turns, each at a sharp 180° angle.

[mostro ✊🏼  🇵🇸 @avantibionda]

É tra le canzoni più cantate al mondo, un inno universale di resistenza, libertà e lotta contro l'oppressione, suo senso e scopo é dare speranza e coraggio a chi è sotto l’invasor.
Nelle voci dei bambini di Gaza fa venire i brividi.

#BellaCiao
#Resistenza
#Liberazione
#25aprile

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Omg.

This is absolutely insane.

Why is everyone acting like this is normal?

[ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ @hamptonism]

Entire Stanford Options and Probabilities lecture by the infamous author of the “The Black Swan”:

[Neyazuddin Ansari @riyazz_ai]

This 1-hour Yale lecture will teach you more about options trading than most people learn in an entire Wall Street career.
Most people skip it.

It comes from Robert J. Shiller at Yale University and instead of surface-level tips, it breaks down the exact thinking and models hedge funds rely on.

Watching it feels like unlocking a different level.

You start to see that options aren’t just trades they’re structured bets on probability, time, and behavior. The real edge isn’t guessing direction, it’s understanding how risk is priced and where others are wrong.

He also makes one thing clear: complexity isn’t the advantage clarity is. The people who win aren’t the ones using the most complicated strategies, but the ones who truly understand what they’re doing.

That’s why this lecture stands out.

Because while most people are chasing quick profits…

Very few actually understand the game they’re playing.

Bookmark this and watch it, no matter what. It might be the most productive start to your week.

[fitvital Hub @FitVitalLife]

If you can do this sequence, you are taking care of your spine from every angle. Watch the video and follow the instructions like and follow for more

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong

1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's
2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal package or reconcilliation
3) Manipulation of the Treasury Issuance such that they issue less duration and more bills, and Fed Balance sheet manipulation - These things are really bad for USD
4) AI ROI for all spenders on picks and shovels surprises on the upside vs already lofty earnings expectations AND margin doesnt come from firing workers.
5) Fed cuts short rates more than expected
6) Investors, companies, and banks lever up more than expected to invest and consume (Animal spirits accelerate and persist.) Which absorbs the massive overhang of issuance of government bonds, corporate bonds, IPO's etc which elevated growth expectations depend without a decline in prices, rise in yields.

[Roan @RohOnChain]

This 2 hour Stanford lecture will teach you more about how LLMs like ChatGPT & Claude are built than most people working at top AI companies learn in their entire careers.

Bookmark this & give 2 hours today, no matter what. It'll be the most productive thing you do this week.

[TotalBodyIQ @TotalBodyIQ]

Only 4 exercises you really need (if you want it simple)

[Cardio Arena @CadioArena]

No gym. No weights. Still burns like hell.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

The fact that we have a gay chad treasury secretary is pretty funny.

Put in place by a Republican. Literally nobody cares about his personal stuff.

Lives in a rich pink house. Fights people too often. Finance expert.

We’re like, “bro, are you going to get interest rates down?”