1/2 Many have sent me Hussman’s latest. I agree with virtually all of it on the valuation and forward expected return front.
And then he chimes in with passive… John is in the “this is a rationalization for why the bubble is everlasting” camp. John’s last communication to me in Dec 2020.
“What distresses me the most is the assumption that somehow Fed intervention and passive investing disable the arithmetic between current prices and future returns (for a given set of future cash flows). In other words, they're assuming that long-term returns continue to be high indefinitely.” (@hussmanjp )
Like others, John has been fighting the good fight on valuation so long, he fails to see an ally. Passive “permanently” shifts valuations UNTIL their flows either reverse or are offset by other flows (redemptions, insider/secondary, new issues). It’s not magic, it’s recognition of an empirically less elastic market than EMH ASSUMED. The cash on the sidelines remains (unless used to pay down debt). How we buy and what we buy matters.
With this new H1B order, remote jobs are going to flood the market
Many employers will happy give 100k to remote workers than giving to government
Indians will earn in $ and the choose where to spend.
Nomad locations will be on the rise
Offshore hiring in India, phillipines, indonesia, vietnam will rise
didn't expect this to blow up, these were early morning thoughts
but did some more reading and found out HIRE Act, eventually this cost will be passed on to remote workers which I still feel is manageable
@The_Colonel__ Yeah I only know how to check the progress at that front starting with Aria. Not sure how the trajectory looks on a longer timescale with more than two qubits.
Sounds like Quantum Computers can actually provide a speed-up for mining $BTC. @IonQ_Inc $IONQ
I read an Arvix Pre-Print a while back that claimed the opposite.
https://t.co/YITJjyfAq4
There is a case to be made that, if $IONQ can hit strong sales numbers this year, it trades at the same sales multiple that $NVDA has. Therefore, we might see balance sheet momentum kick in for the stock.