Joe Peta

Author: Trading Bases (2013); A 2019 Masters Preview. Prior: ESPN Chalk, lead baseball writer (2015-2017.)

2023 Release: Moneyball for the Money Set

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

Spring '95. Tiger, still largely unknown outside golf circles, is in a study hall with many Stanford athletes. They exchange Spring Break destinations.
Tiger: "Going to the Masters"
Greg Comella (Stanford RB): "That's the toughest tix in sports! How?"
Tiger: "I'm playing."

[Kyle Porter @KylePorterNS]

Tiger's 46 today. Give me your favorite tidbit, stat or story about the Cat. I'll throw some of mine out there a bit later.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@Bigtoe88 I do think that. But the analytics community acting like “go for it” is obvious because the automated 4th Down bot on Twitter says so, are the ones crushing the Jags decision. Because that bot does not vary its recommendation by circumstance.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

Brian leads a nice discussion here on models, probability and uncertainty. But I still think it misses a big point Shanahan is making. And the Jags decision to attempt a late 60-yard FG last Sunday, down 3, is a great example.

The models said go for it, but those models assumed a league-average kicker makes the kick roughly 40% of the time. But Cam Little is not average and his coach knows that. If I were the coach, what I’d want to know is, “what % would Cam need to make the FG to flip the decision from “go for it” to “kick”? If it’s 55%-60%, I’m kicking!

That, to my ear, is what Shanahan is getting at when he says 51/49 is not necessarily persuasive.

I’d like more analysis like this from the football quants. Some recs (go for 2 late in the game down 8) have no context factors which can switch the recommendation, but a lot of 51/49s do.

[Brian Burke @bburkeESPN]

With all the talk about Kyle Shanahan's 51% comment, I want to take some time to walk through why a lot of the discussion yesterday was off the mark. I'm going to focus on just one of the points made--uncertainty. Thread:

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@fade_colors And that’s another point. We don’t know what the coach’s analytics dept is whispering in his ear and what factors they use because the automated 4th Down bot definitely doesn’t. Yet it’s taken as gospel.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@areevaderchi Do you think it they went for the 4th down and converted it, they would have played for the win — or simply run down the clock to tie it and at that point be a 50/50 bet in OT?

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@Clevta Because Jax was most likely simply controlling the clock to get to OT (with a small chance of breaking a play to the EZ.)

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

It’s a great point and it’s therefore possible, like the ‘go for 2 down 8’ that there is no context. But let’s say it’s a 100% chance of making it, is Jax really a larger underdog in tied game kicking off with what, 100 seconds left” or down 3 on a 4th and 3 (or 4)?

If true, I agree context doesn’t matter.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@bburkeESPN So you’re exactly an “average” pilot? You don’t have any unique information that would suggest your probability would be higher or lower?

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

How about we choose an example that hews much closer to his context-dependent comment:

Before trying a life-risking maneuver, you're informed that an *average* F - 18 pilot will succeed 51% of the time. Do you attempt the maneuver?

[Brian Burke @bburkeESPN]

If Kyle had to bet his life on predicting whether he chooses a red ball or a blue ball from a jar, and he was informed there are 51 red balls and 49 blue, which color should he predict?

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@mookiewilson86 @GChernack 1980. Royals/Phillies

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

The transition was already in its planning stages on that date and the planned ownership change signing date was Feb 4, 2020. The new owner's inner circle had high regards for the Brewers.😉

It was the Wilpon's who sabotaged the original plan -- at great personal cost, because Wilpons gonna Wilpon.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway Finally the crossover event I've been waiting for. lol. I will always associate he and the Talking Heads with "Wall Street" thanks to the scene with the extended play of This Must Be the Place in well, the movie of the same name.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@PlusEV 🫡

Fantastic study

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@tolstoybb Rookies.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@JessNoFace I assume you named them Tarheeb and Cam.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

Every single week this is the best creator content out there. I mean Coach 30 *NEVER* misses.

[Brenden Clinton @MrGo30]

Film session w/ Coach 30 - #DallasCowboys vs. #TampaBayBucs

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@Scaramucci Anthony, we're the same age, and of the same background -- at the time of your story, the Republican Party was intent on destroying the very unions that not once, but twice, appear in your story as the catalyst for your higher education.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

And this omits the most relevant fact of all when comparing multiples:

In August 2004 (Google's IPO date) the 10-year discount rate was pegged to the US bond yielding 4.28%.

Today the 10-year yield 5.28%. Yikes.

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

IPO Math

2004: Google at $23B mkt cap on $3B revs (so 8x sales).

2026: Anthropic targets $2T mkt cap on a $65B run rate (~31x), but 2025 actual rev was just $4.6B, so 435x on real numbers, w/ a $42B loss. Same sales dollar, 4x the multiple, or 50x if you use audited figures.

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

These moments are never not fantastic.

Here's Steve Perry leading the Giants crowd in Don't Stop Believing during the 2014 playoffs. They only played it if the Giants were tied or behind -- otherwise it was Lights. (If there, I'd root for tie games.)

https://t.co/PmRnnbcp3p

[BaseballHistoryNut @nut_history]

Tom DeLonge is used to going to Petco Park and hearing his Blink 182 jam “All the Small Things” sang by the whole stadium. But last night during a playoff game, he got a bit emotional about it with tears in his eyes. He even joined the crowd towards the end and sang in the camera. Cool stuff

[Joe Peta @MagicRatSF]

@halfkelly @cfargis Let’s add TLC, Weezer and I won’t hear of besmirching Hootie — like Jagged it was full of bangers.