I know people would rather hear exact predictions.
They get an insane amount of engagement even when it turns out wrong every single time after.
Truth is:
20 accounts will all make an exact prediction:
"Bitcoin bottoms at xx in October"
19 of them will be wrong and 1 will be right by pure coincidence (broken clock principle).
Those 19 will simply ignore or delete those tweets and that 1 account that had it right by pure coincidence will ride that fame and hype for the next 5 years they will call the next top or bottom (quoting and reposting every week).
In reality all 20 never really know and certainty can't call the next top or bottom at all.
Hence why it doesn't always make me the most popular account saying I'm a trend trader.
There are no absolute targets. There is no "I've cracked the code. Bottom is xxx dollars".
There is no we can't or we will.
There is simply following the trend which is a method that makes you catch 80% of the entire move because you know you don't have a crystal ball.
You follow structure untill:
1/ Structure changes from bearish to bullish
2/ Price simply becomes to attractive to ignore (HUGE correction already)
But no:
If Bitcoin bottoms in 4 months I don't know yet if it'll be trading at exactly 54,836$.
I don't need to know actually. Yet people like to think and believe others do.
“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $3B now.”
No.
If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to:
$1k → $100k → $2M
and did nothing
Then watched $2M go to $200k
and still did nothing
Then watched $200k go to $150M
and still did nothing
Then watched $150M wither to $25M
and still did nothing
Then watched $25M surge to $500M
and still did nothing
Then watched $500M deteriorate to $100M
Then watched $100M climb to $2B
and still did nothing
Then watched $2B shrink to $400M
and still did nothing
Then watched $400M surge to $3B
and then for some reason finally decided to do something…
Then yes, $100 in 2010 would be worth $3 billion today.
Seen people already trying to sell $ETH so they can buy it back on the dip.
Statistically your odds of winning here are extremely low.
1/ When things dip you'll keep looking for lower.
2/ When it goes back up you'll likely readd higher then when you sold.
The solution?
You sell without planning to buy the dip. You know, just regular profit taking if that's your goal.
You just hold and ride it out. This is far more successful if your plan is to sell and add on the dip.
Learn from everyone who has been before you. Trust me, you're not the genius exception.