Maninder Singh

Banker, Rates Trader, Investor, learning each day from Markets. Personal account, views are my own and do not represent my employer

[NDTV Profit Alpha @NDTVProfitAlpha]

Wipro's Q1 results will be out soon.

@GhaiJasmeetS with details on what to expect.

[Alpha_Ex_LLC @Alpha_Ex_LLC]

TLDR: the interconnectedness of markets (and geopolitics) has reached a new phase where wheat vol and the VIX are related. Some perspective -->
Market prices are like your 3 year old, seeking your attention and willing to do so with negative behavior. If you Zoom in, the repricing is dramatic in its speed and in its scope. Around the world and across the asset classes, it's hard to find a risk premium that isn't considerably higher. VIX, MOVE, credit spreads, credit vol, break-evens, FX vol.
Look further and more nuanced measures like volatility skew and implied correlation are steeper and higher. In Europe, there's been a spike in realized correlation among stocks (in the SX5E, it's 52% over the last month) as the repricing of the ECB's path has been dramatic.
These risks are priced into US and other major developed markets, but EM volatility has also surged. The EEM VIX started the year at 17 and it's now at 36. EM credit spreads are similarly wider.
These are all financially centric risk measures. In market risk, a rising tide lifts all vols. But it's not all that applicable to soft commodities. Until now. Claude tells me that roughly 1/3 of globally traded fertilizer transits the Straight.
Here's an index of 1m implied vol on corn, wheat, sugar and soybeans, mapped against the VIX. The correlation of these two over the past month is 72%.
If there's one thing we've learned about vol events over the years it's that a supply shortage and resulting imbalance of supply/demand is at the heart of nasty price moves. LTCM in 1998, VW in 2008, the 2010 blowup in long dated equity vol, the 2011 surge in the Yen after the nuclear disaster, the 2018 VIX implosion, the GME event in 2021, the surge in nickel prices in 2022. Nothing leads to vol more than a big imbalance of supply and demand.
Supply shortages resolve through the demand destruction that results from much higher prices. Easy to write, but it's a process that imposes incredible risk on the global system of asset prices. "Move fast and things break".
In the same way that higher prices are the cure for higher prices, higher rates can be the cure for higher rates. At some point, if the market sees a material economic slowdown as likely, the US bond market sell-off will reverse as the "stag" part of stagflation is prioritized by policymakers over the inflation side.

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@instamart_it hi my Order ID 226512521562882 placed on 4th Jan was partially cancelled suo moto my Instamart. Cancelled order had value of Rs. 75 against which refund if only 35 was processed. Send multiple email to support team but they refuse to help reiterating refund of 35

[Ira Dugal @dugalira]

The India-UK trade deal signals a pretty conservative approach on India’s part — slow tariff reductions, import quotas and segments cherry picked.

This is no 1991 moment as many people had expected.

What is does is try and secure and diversify the market for India’s labour intensive and services sector exports. That’s a win for India.

This week's India File:

https://t.co/Zmle3Lwd2E

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@volklub I purchased a slavia 1.5 TSI an year back
shift gear to 1 on small obstacles
Randomly shows EPC error and would not start

[Sahil Kapoor @SahilKapoor]

India's Crude Oil (Petroleum POL) in numbers.

Imports in FY25:
Value: $186Bn
Quantity: 328 Mn Tonnes
Unit Price: $567/tn or $76 per barrel

Exports in FY25:
Value: $63Bn
Quantity: 88 Mn Tonnes
Unit Price: $717/tn or $96 per barrel

Oil trade deficit
$123 Bn

What if Oil goes to $100 over the full financial year?
Oil trade deficit rises to $158 Bn or by $12Bn per $10 rise in price of Oil.

India's troubles with Oil begins beyond $125 Oil.
Why?
At $125 or higher, India's oil trade deficit rises to nearly $200 Bn.

India's Net Services Exports produces a surplus of $188Bn

Remittances bring in additional $110Bn
But Primary Income sees an annual outflows of $55Bn
At $250Bn of Merchandise deficit, of which Crude Oil is at $120Bn at a price of $76.

This deficit is easily covered by Services exports + remittances even after adjusting for Primary Income.

But if Oil rises past $125, the Merchendise trade deficit would rise to $330Bn or so producing a Current Account deficit of $87 Bn.

This number would then be covered at the mercy of Foreign flows (FPI & FDI). Both of these flows have been tepid.

There is now a consensus on few things
1. That the days of high oil prices are over.
2. Geopolitics produces tremendous shorting opportunities in Crude Oil.
3. OPEC + can manage prices and US would intervene.

All of the above have been true for a while now and help bring down Oil prices.

The above maths would help, if this doesn't happen and Oil prices rise over $125 per barrel.

The numbers wouldn't be exact. The demand for Oil will change and India's other import/exports numbers would also change.

This is a rough yardstick to assess the impact.

[Vaibhav Baxi @VaibhavBaxi]

📢: SPOT ON: The sum of the different comments over time from Trump and Bessent was in line with what I predicted.
The only statement added was "ready to lick my Ass"

#Trump #TrumpTarrifs #TrumpTariffsWars

[Vaibhav Baxi @VaibhavBaxi]

📢(ALL): Sequence of events of tariff war with China in Trump's first term, courtesy Grok.
What's happening now is much larger in size than last time around, when only certain amount of good were tariffed. The escalation is much larger as well and the tariffs are being put much sooner than they were last time when it was at a distant future date. Clearly both parties will have to sit together and roll back.
#TariffWar #TrumpTariffs

https://t.co/ueuLm531cI

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@SahilKapoor Congratulations Sahil

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@SahilKapoor Sukhna ?

[Narayanan R @rnsaai]

C. Radhakrishna Rao, retired at the age of sixty and went to live with his daughter in America along with his grandchildren.

There, at the age of 62, he became a professor of statistics at the University of Pittsburgh and at the age of 70, he became the head of the

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@dugalira Recently had same discussion with a senior banker (cent) and he felt that banks selling MF are canniblizing their own deposits and I was like Dhaw🤣

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@volklub Bhaji Just pin a tweet with all the products you recommend, would be of great help.
Was looking to buy a vacuum cleaner for my car and literally had to scan through your tweeets to search for volkclub recommended vacuum
Regards

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@Addition_Singh Congratulations veer

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@volklub @Criccomputer Slavia?

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@volklub Thanks a lot sir
Really appreciated

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@Addition_Singh Reliance and SBI pls

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@hartej_ More power to you Hartej veer strong personalities have strong ethics and strong lineage build on what is followed by their ancestors

[Maninder Singh @Maninder_makkar]

@SahilKapoor Happy birthday sir
You truly are an inspiration and aspiration for me.
Wishing you life full of discipline