PlayingMantitos

Former (star) trader @ LTCM, Lehman, Amaranth, Archegos, and 3AC. Tha drunken @saylor 's apprentice. Interviewing for Softbank Vision Fund soon.
Life = Leverage

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Not a fan of the CCP, but they understood a long time ago the basic industrial truth the West keeps tripping over: in nuclear, you need standardized reactor designs, actively backed by the state or region, to unlock economies of scale and drive unit costs down.

It’s the Airbus–Boeing logic. Compete at the platform level, standardize underneath. This already happened for gas turbines, with Siemens Energy, GE Vernova and Mitsubishi Heavy being the winners.

[Voice of Rabbis @voiceofrabbis]

A Jewish guy beat a Jewish guy in a New York election and they're calling it antisemitism.

Just to clear it out

Only Zionists are saying that.

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

Makes me think we’re closer to the ninth inning than we all thought. At every cycle peak there’s a sharpe monkey out there calling the obsolescence of cyclicality

Only thing I’d disagree with is uranium spot price is near incentive price for western hemisphere at least and not comparable to memory here. Haven’t seen anything close to like this play out in uranium land, although many yellowcake monkeys out in the jungle I know

[DaRazor @akramsrazor]

$mu with another reminder that memory makes the rest of the datacenter capex chain just look stupid now. At 40bl+ op income next quarter its outearning $aapl $goog $amzn $meta $msft meanwhile $amd been almost same mkt cap and they printed 1.5bl op incom last q. You really want to pay 70x 2028 fcf for optics suppliers when they are both competing against this return profile on the same theme and in the bom. Yes, it won't last for forever but in the case of some stocks the crowding out effect and rent capture is all that matters in this buildout cycle, and they are massive relative losers to this complex.

[Ned Ryun @nedryun]

This is so great.

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

how is the drunken saylor not in a jail cell
seriously
https://t.co/VGYPjorKsf

[Zack Voell @zackvoell]

STRC is down 15% in two weeks.

Saylor said he "designed it with ChatGPT."

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*AMAZON IN TALKS TO SELL NVIDIA RIVAL CHIPS TO OTHER COMPANIES

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

@rorysutherland LOL what an insight Rory

Although genitalia is the least worst offence imo

[Indigo @indigoati]

Hippos can be mad at you without saying a single word

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

Making sure everyone on my team listens to this. So much wisdom and priceless mental models for growth investing. Spoiler alert: a priceless homage to his legendary father. https://t.co/0tC7Xc9gc6

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

Drunken saylor
Scam artist
I read palms and the lines on his hand read J A I L

[ian c @ThirdTimeIan]

“You’re all suckers”

- MS

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

And in terms of the most relevant analogy to AI’s impact on the employment and the speed of the impact on us labor share decline, i don’t think it is other GPT (like electricity).

Rather, the comparable will be the globalization wave led by China. As AI (like trade) forces specialization along comparative advantage (in tasks) and essentially reorganized the production process.

[Yet another commodity guy @tleilax___]

El Nino update. Godzilla is coming.

Most of the world will see top quartile temperatures over Jul/Aug/Sep, which is peak vegetative growth season globally for grains, half the world oilseeds and also for sugar and rice in Asia. That means more evapotranspiration and stress on crops.

India and South-East Asia will also likely see their weakeast monsoon rains in decades.

This is happening while there's a shortage of fertilizers.

[Divergent Capital @Divergent7651]

New note on $CHTR free to read in the usual place (link in bio).

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

Tesla looks like a good short here

cyclical industry plateauing in largest DMs, global ev subsidies rolling off, getting skewered in int’l markets by chinese ev’s esp EMs like Brazil, so much ai/humanoid fervour (but can’t break 2nd and 1st all time peaks) Elon musk magic premium attached to Tesla now with SpaceX coming on is going to get diluted

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Keep an eye on the Rupee & Turkish lira. When they finally bottom, we could see an important inflection point in this structural gold bull market. FX weakness is causing Modi to restrict gold imports and Erdogan to sell gold reserves.

For India in particular, with its extraordinarily energy-intensive economic model, stable FX requires a durable solution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

As u know, I'm in the muddle-through camp. No diplomatic deal is going to restore the ante bellum status quo.

What eventually emerges are infrastructure workarounds (these will be fast tracked in the UAE; KSA and perhaps Kuwait), efficiency gains, some bilateral deals and structurally lower oil imports across parts of Asia, much as the US adapted after the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks.

So think months, not weeks. The inflection point comes when the worst of the FX depreciation is behind us. That's my hunch, anyway. Plenty of known unknowns and unknown unknowns though.

[Divergent Capital @Divergent7651]

$MIAX is the kind of business that could be a legitimate multi-bagger from here over a 5 or 10 year time horizon. Best in class economic characteristics that are very similar to a royalty. Also vetted and owned by some of the best minds in the game, Horizon Kinetics.

[David Dredge @ConvexityDredge]

Reverse Polanyi Paradox

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

fkn dumbass... + 74%
https://t.co/nzINMncVsz

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

Love $ARM been the biggest portfolio contributor this year but… does the math math at this entry…?

Might sell it all

[PlayingMantitos @MantoDaPoet]

Question: Who damaged their legacy faster and more deeply: Trump with America OR Elkann with Ferrari?