March Madness Analysis

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[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Great year. 158K and 99.4 percentile.

Won both paid bracket polls.

AND got my champion right for the 2nd straight year😳 that’s unlike me😂

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Master’s Bracket Stats🥹

[Ron Klos @PGASplits101]

🚨The most comprehensive list of the highest % trends at The Masters for the most predictive course - Augusta National Golf Club.

TAKEAWAYS
⛳️Love them or hate them, the trends speak to the bigger picture of what matters at Augusta National.
⛳️Course knowledge and experience is directly correlated to success.
⛳️A longshot winner is improbable.
⛳️Recent winning experience is significant.
⛳️Current form, especially tee-to-green is paramount.
⛳️An elite putter is not required.
⛳️It's a "bombers" paradise - Architect Bobby Jones literally designed the course to give golfers "an unrestricted feeling of being able to swing away amid a wide swath of parkland". He believed that good drives would be rewarded, not by staying out of penalty areas, but by “making the second shot simpler in proportion to the excellence of the first".
⛳️Attacking the par 5s (with aggressiveness) is a necessity.
⛳️Chipping on tight, uneven lies around the green is a predictive skill and brings out the best short-gamers.

✅Three players fit 17 of 19 trends...

Ludvig Aberg
Xander Schauffele
Tommy Fleetwood

✅Six players fit 16 of 19 trends...

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Bryson DeChambeau
Matt Fitzpatrick
Min Woo Lee

✅One player fit 15 of 19 trends...

Cameron Young

✅Two players fit 14 of 19 trends...

Collin Morikawa
Hideki Matsuyama

⛳️Last year, Rory McIlroy fit all 19 trends...and won.

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Michigan beat Arizona by 18 last night.

No team over 38 adjEM has ever lost by more than 8 points.

The highest rated team (via adjEM) to EVER lose by 18+ points was 2025 Florida (36.46 adjEM).

Did Michigan just pull off the most impressive performance in CBB history😳⁉️

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Love to see this.

[Hoops at Duke @Hoopsatduke]

National title game combined starting lineups:

7 seniors
2 juniors
0 sophomores
1 freshmen

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Bracket stats are full proof. March Madness is not completely random. Do yourself a favor, and give yourself a competitive edge.

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

My last 6 bracket poll finishes (against 50-80 brackets each year):

2021: 1st🏆
2022: not even close🤢
2023: 3rd🥉 (If Creighton beat SDSU, I would’ve won)
2024: 3rd (if Purdue beat UConn, I would’ve won)
2025: 3rd (if Tennessee beat Houston, I would’ve won)
2026: 1st🏆

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

My last 6 bracket poll finishes (against 50-80 brackets each year):

2021: 1st🏆
2022: not even close🤢
2023: 3rd🥉 (If Creighton beat SDSU, I would’ve won)
2024: 3rd (if Purdue beat UConn, I would’ve won)
2025: 3rd (if Tennessee beat Houston, I would’ve won)
2026: 1st🏆

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Post F4 Update:

Bracket 1:
- cooked, who cares

Bracket 2👨‍🍳:
- 98.8 percentile
- Champ still in tact〽️
- clinched 1st in ALL bracket polls🏆

Only 14% of brackets picked Michigan as the champ. I’m excited to where this bracket ranks on ESPNTC if Michigan beats UConn.

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Top 10 upsets by adjEM difference (pre-tourney):

1) HPU over Wisc: 14.99
2) Iowa over UF: 11.35
3) UConn over Duke: 11.03
4) Tex over GU: 9.07
5) Tenn over ISU: 6.40
6) TCU over OSU: 4.65
7) A&M over SMC: 4.40
8) Texas over BYU: 4.22
9) Iowa over Neb: 3.72
10) VCU over UNC: 3.63

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

So we got 2 more upsets than expected. Iowa over Florida, HPU over Wisconsin, and Texas over Gonzaga (without Huff) were all pretty severe and unexpected🤷‍♂️

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Based on this year’s Kenpom graph, the 2026 March Madness bracket was expected to have 3.6 upsets (5+ seed difference) and 6.9 upsets (3+ seed difference). Both were the lowest expected upsets in the Kenpom era (since 1997).

We got…

6 upsets (5+ seed)

9 upsets (3+ seed)

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Each program’s all-time record in Final Four games + Titles:

UConn: 12-1🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆
Michigan: 9-8🏆
Arizona: 3-3🏆
Illinois: 1-5

UConn is 6-0 in national title games while Michigan is 1-6…😂🤦‍♂️

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

If you copied my 2nd bracket, you’re probably in the same position as me:

1) If Michigan beats AZ, you get 1st
2) If AZ beats Michigan, you get nothing- or maybe 3rd

If you’re confident in Michigan, let it ride.

If you think AZ will win, hedge and put $200 on AZ moneyline.

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

WHY DOES UCONN NOT APPLY TO ANY BRACKET STAT?!?!😭 They’re immune😂

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

It sucks so bad that my 2nd bracket is SO much better than the 1st bracket. Puts all my eggs into 1 basket. If AZ beats Michigan, it’s meaningless. If Michigan beats AZ, I will completely dominate everyone. Why can’t my brackets be equal, and I win money no matter the champ?🤦‍♂️

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Duke losing put me in SUCH a bad spot. Issue is, I NEED Michigan to win the title, or else I can’t win any money in the bracket groups.

Bracket 1
- 83.5 percentile
- 9th/19th in bracket groups (can’t possibly finish top 3)

Bracket 2
- 99.7 percentile
- 1st in both groups

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Duke losing put me in SUCH a bad spot. Issue is, I NEED Michigan to win the title, or else I can’t win any money in the bracket groups.

Bracket 1
- 83.5 percentile
- 9th/19th in bracket groups (can’t possibly finish top 3)

Bracket 2
- 99.7 percentile
- 1st in both groups

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Duke losing really hurt my brackets bad.

A) 14.3% of brackets picked UConn in the Final Four

B) We’re missing out on so many points having Duke in the F4 and natty game because think of ALL the people who picked another team in the East Region or natty game

[Michael Walsh @midmajormichael]

By far the best I’ve ever done to this point for a March Madness bracket 👀

Sure there’s some luck involved, but this year more than any other I valued the analysis of the individual matchups. Looking at strengths of weaknesses and how each team could (or could not) exploit them

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

I would like to point out that these were ALL educated and statistically backed predictions… with maybe 20% of gut feeling. We discussed all 4 gambles as very real possibilities, and Michael had the guts to actually pick them. Truly impressive work🤜

F4
Duke>Ill
AZ>Mich
AZ>Duke

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Shoutout to my guy, Michael Walsh, 102nd in the WORLD😳. He took 4 MAJOR gambles that ALL paid off (Iowa>UF, Illinois F4, Texas S16, Tenn E8). Highest I’ve EVER seen someone. He’s in the bracket stats group chat- predicting a bracket is NOT 100% luck.

I pray I didn’t jinx him 🤞

[March Madness Analysis @MarchAnalysis]

Shoutout to my guy, Michael Walsh, 102nd in the WORLD😳. He took 4 MAJOR gambles that ALL paid off (Iowa>UF, Illinois F4, Texas S16, Tenn E8). Highest I’ve EVER seen someone. He’s in the bracket stats group chat- predicting a bracket is NOT 100% luck.

I pray I didn’t jinx him 🤞