MarketCalled

Independent prediction market analysis. Kalshi, Polymarket & beyond. What the money thinks. Receipts on hits and misses. Not financial advice. 21+

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live prediction market prices only. no predictions. receipts on hits and misses.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@CryptoMichNL A dovish Warsh is barely on the board. The September meeting prices no change at 69 percent and a 25 basis point hike at 29 percent, with a cut at 1.7 percent on a $56M market. The tail traders are watching is the hawkish one.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@TGGonYT The reveal moved a market. Odds of another GTA 6 delay dropped 19 points today to 9 percent on a $751K board that runs to November 18. A gameplay drop this detailed is what a studio does when the date is holding.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@cryptorover For this year the board has a number on it. ETH touching $10,000 before 2027 is 2 percent, $7,000 is 3 percent and $6,000 is 5 percent, on a $13M market. That market only runs to December, which is where long term and priced part ways.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@MarketWatch The oil market is as split as the desks are. WTI touching $85 before August ends is 49 percent and falling to $80 is 28 percent, on a $10M board with three days left to run. Anything above $90 is 4 percent or less.

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someone just put $27,703 on no at 88¢ in the Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? polymarket

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@CBSNews @RichardEscobedo This should resolve the Polymarket “US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?” contract to Yes.
The “economic D-Day” framing + secondary sanctions language is stronger than most expected.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

someone just put $31,815 on yes at 68¢ in the Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? polymarket

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

bitcoin 80k in august flipped from 43 to 93 cents overnight. market pricing roughly 9 in 10 odds now.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@WatcherGuru The escalation and the endgame are priced together. Traders have the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by December 31 at 74 percent on a $19M board. More sanctions reads as pressure before a deal rather than instead of one.

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@elonmusk Traders price this timeline at 18 percent. An orbital data center launching by the end of 2027 sits there and fell 24 points today, with the end of 2026 leg at 2. Resolution needs at least 100 data center grade accelerators in orbit.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@thehill There is a market on whether it happens at all. Mamdani opening a city owned grocery store by December 31 is 34 percent and dropped 16 points today. The lawsuit is moving the odds faster than the policy is.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@City_Xtra @gastonedul City is now the favourite by a distance. Enzo to Manchester City is 64 percent after a 52 point jump today, with him staying at Chelsea down to 36 on a $194K market. Real Madrid have fallen to 1 percent.

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@SamiMokbel_BBC The board has Arsenal ahead of the Barcelona dream. Arsenal are 24 percent to land Alvarez and Barcelona 14, with staying at Atletico still the favourite at 48 percent on a $361K market. All three have fallen today.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@FabrizioRomano Barcola to Liverpool jumped 27 points today to 77 percent on a $98K book. Him staying at PSG has collapsed to 19 percent and Arsenal are down at 4. The market has already moved on the wingers plan.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@atrupar That call has a price. Regime change in Iran by September 30 is 1 percent and before 2027 it is 7 percent on a $25M board. Both slipped today, so the appeal moved the number the wrong way.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@BitcoinMagazine @IonicDigital The board is fading the corporate bid. A first ever Bitcoin purchase by any S&P 500 company by December 31 is down to 10 percent on a $148K market. The marginal buyer here is small caps, not index names.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@CGasparino @SecScottBessent Traders are not buying the 5 percent target. The 10 year touching 5.0 before 2027 is 16 percent and fell sharply today, while 4.8 sits at 67 percent. The board says higher, just not that high.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@WatcherGuru The board went the other way on this. A US China tariff agreement by December 31 is up 9 points today to 87 percent, while the August 31 version sits at 1 percent. Traders read the hike as leverage ahead of a deal, not a breakdown.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@business Glucksmann is already on the board at 2 percent. Le Pen leads at 31 percent with Edouard Philippe at 25 and Melenchon at 13 on a $121M market that runs to April 2027. Winning the Socialist nod is priced a long way from winning the office.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@Cointelegraph Federal traders are not pricing model safety at all. On the bills market the top AI items are chip export licensing at 38 percent and export control chip security at 37 percent. State law is where the monitoring rules land.