C 🟠

Markets | NFA

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

Must listen for all wealth managers⬇️

The Importance of Long Vol

In a multi-lap race (40 laps or 40 years), the winner is rarely the driver with the most powerful engine. It is the driver with the best brakes.

The brakes receive little credit because their contribution is indirect: they permit later braking, higher corner speeds, and the confidence to fully explore the performance limits of the engine, aerodynamics, and transmission.

The same dynamic exists in capital allocation.

A robust protective structure: liquidity reserves, hedging mechanisms, and structural downside mitigation; it functions as the braking system. These elements do not generate returns on their own, yet they create the necessary conditions to deploy capital aggressively when opportunities arise and to preserve it when conditions deteriorate.

This is the essence of positive convexity: the ability to participate in upside while constraining exposure to severe loss. Over long horizons, the compounded advantage of repeated asymmetric outcomes dominates total return far more than any forecast of future market path.

It’s just compound math, preserve capital to compound it.

Risk is not the uncertainty of unseen corners ahead; risk is the vulnerability of the vehicle itself.

Construct a portfolio that can decelerate decisively when required and accelerate when the track clears. That single attribute, more than any directional prediction, determines the sustainable compounding trajectory.

For anyone managing capital across decades, that is the core objective.

@ConvexityDredge @jam_croissant

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

This is one of the most important conversations we have done. Watch the full U Got Options episode with @ConvexityDredge here 👉 https://t.co/Ms1zHlUplT

[NAX Capital @NAXCapitalAU]

Every week, our team sits down together to learn.

This week's session explored Neil Howe's The Fourth Turning, a framework that maps history through repeating generational cycles and asks what those cycles mean for the world we're investing in today.

At NAX Capital, we think understanding context matters as much as understanding markets. That means going beyond price charts and into the ideas that shape long-term thinking. 📚

These weekly education sessions are part of how we build a genuinely informed team, not just about digital assets, but about the broader forces that drive them. 🌐

If you're curious about how we think, visit https://t.co/OrBz8f3QVH to learn more about our approach. 🔗

[PeterSweden @PeterSweden7]

If your country requires digital ID verification to use social media, then you don't live in a free country anymore.

If your country want to regulate or ban VPNs, you don't live in a free country anymore.

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

Just finished watching the debate between @PunterJeff and @coffeebreak_YT.

It confirms what I already believed. Bitcoin Twitter is at least 10 years ahead of the general population.

Truly understanding Bitcoin and Bitcoin credit products like STRC and SATA carries more practical weight today than a degree from Harvard or Oxford.

You are in the 0.001% if you're this early and understand.

[HH Sheikh Mohammed @HHShkMohd]

Under the directives of the President of the UAE, we launch a new government model. Within two years, 50% of government sectors, services, and operations will run on Agentic AI, making the UAE the first government globally to operate at this scale through autonomous systems.

AI is no longer a tool. It analyses, decides, executes, and improves in real time. It will become our executive partner to enhance services, accelerate decisions, and raise efficiency.

This transformation has a clear timeline. Two years. Performance across government will be measured by speed of adoption, quality of implementation, and mastery of AI in redesigning government work.

We are investing in our people. Every federal employee will be trained to master AI, building one of the world’s strongest capabilities in AI-driven government.

Implementation will be overseen by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, with a dedicated taskforce chaired by Mohammad Al Gergawi driving execution.

The world is changing. Technology is accelerating. Our principle remains constant. People come first. Our goal is a government that is faster, more responsive, and more impactful.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Historically, several late-stage empires have experienced decade-plus periods of secular inflation. The Common Themes Across These Cases are:
1.Monetary distortion – often via currency debasement or excessive issuance without productivity growth.
2.Military overreach – empires straining to maintain or expand borders and influence.
3.Administrative decay – inability to collect taxes efficiently or manage spending.
4.Declining trust in institutions – both monetary and political.

These secular inflations typically signal imperial overstretch, the breakdown of old economic systems, and a transition period before reform, or collapse.

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

1B STRC 🟠

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy has acquired 13,927 BTC for ~$1.00 billion at ~$71,902 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 5.6% YTD 2026. As of 4/12/2026, we hodl 780,897 $BTC acquired for ~$59.02 billion at ~$75,577 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/xVKjg2cEVP

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@jam_croissant Top draw 👏🏼

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

It may be tempting to think that the rise in yields is the product of a US-centric dynamic (relating to OPEC recycling no/fewer petrodollars into Treasuries), but the next chart shows that yields are rising everywhere. This is global reset, not unlike 2022.

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@BitPaine The latter

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@ceterispar1bus 😂

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@vonderleyen 🤡

Foresight within these bunch are non-existent

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@options_insight Lot of vol supply this quarterly OpEx, hence the index behaving the way it has.

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@options_insight Sounds like you'd like to be long calls instead of equity

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@alex_hunter20 @armaniferrante

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@LukeGromen @atrupar Comment of the day

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

War debases currencies, freezes capital, closes borders, and levels physical assets. The question every conflict forces on capital holders is ancient. The answer, for the first time, is new.

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@Heyitshassan We deem these points critical states in complex systems. @grok can expand

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

@VladTheInflator ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@elerianm @grok how much does Blue Owl manage

[C 🟠 @MarketsWithC]

@caprioleio @The_Ref_io @grok tell me more about @The_Ref_io