PSX and World on the Edge

[PSX and World on the Edge @MarkhorKnows]

The best case scenario right now is that US & Iran make a deal in which Iran agrees to not control SOH (which includes not charging tolls & not restricting vessels in SOH in any way). This scenario will still not be sufficient to prevent major economic pain for most of the world!

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Iran's Brigadier General Heydari:

We have closed the Strait of Hormuz and we will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Al-Mada reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s unannounced visit to Tehran resulted in a mediation proposal under which the U.S. would accept four of Iran’s seven demands while contesting the remaining three. The reported US concessions include allowing Iran to retain its nuclear materials, lifting the naval blockade, and ending hostilities across the region, including in Lebanon.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

people understandably focusing on Saudi oil production recovery in October based on Today's OPEC data.

but, if the numbers are indeed accurate, the most impressive recovery has been Iraq, which in October reportedly pumped ~4.5 MMbpd—the the highest crude output since 2022

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Vance exploring how to make an in-person meeting with Rezaee happen.

He apparently has Trump's blessing, but I don't see what he can offer Rezaee that would move the needle toward a deal.

I also, fwiw, don't really see them getting along. https://t.co/AvGVOatXO9

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Iran's Mohsen Rezaei:

“Any new U.S. attack will also be met with strikes targeting U.S. military bases farther away.

Ending the war on all fronts in West Asia, especially in Lebanon, is one of our key conditions.

We have reached an advanced level in electronic warfare that enables us to control and shoot down U.S. drones.”

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

US VS IRAN GAME THEORY IN 7 POINTS:

1. Trump wants out but not on Iranian terms. He needs something he can spin as a win.

2. The Dems can't squeeze him out. Congress never voted a dollar for this war which will continue to be paid from the Pentagon's ordinary budget.

3. The IRGC won't let him off easy. They believe that a man who needs an exit will pay for one. Tehran republished the same 7 demands which Rubio called "outrageous and ridiculous" (end the war, lift the blockade, pay reparations and release frozen funds).

4. Iran can last longer than the forecasts say. The economy is in its worst shape in decades, but they don't need the economy to endure, only the IRGC, which has plenty of support and funding to endure. Also Washington just created a new task force to shut land borders. Why do that if the squeeze was already working so well?

5. But Iran keeps misreading Washington. It thought closing Hormuz would force a quick deal. Then it thought the midterms would. Now it thinks Congress will. Maybe they will wake up at some point.

6. Washington has its own agenda. The day SpaceX launched in June oil fell 5% on hopes of an MoU. Anthropic IPO is due on November 19th + gave the Qataris 2 weeks for diplomacy. Coincidence?

7. Who blinks first? Neither side can accept the other's terms without looking like a poor loser, and neither side thinks they are losing. Both are misreading the other's clock.

The correction and reality check can only come through escalation.

It's mostly a question of when, not if, given the prevailing positions on both sides. The status quo can remain messy for a while, but a peaceful resolution is totally overestimated right now.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Confirming earlier reports Ghalibaf says US officials travelled to Moscow and asked Putin to engage Tehran on holding direct talks with Washington.
#Iran

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Tankers continue to burn in the Middle East despite hopes for de-escalation

Despite market bets on a de-escalation in the Iran war, new evidence has emerged in recent days of strikes on ​tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

However, there is little sign of attacks abating in November, after 37 ships were attacked in ​October, the highest monthly total since the start of the war, according to data from the Washington Institute for ​Near East Policy. (Reuters)

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

The war and blockade have had a significant negative impact on the Iranian economy, but the impact on economic output has been smaller than most people realize.

After six months of war, the decline in Iran's non-oil economic output was smaller than the impact of the pandemic on US economy activity after the same period.

The decline was also only about *one-seventh* of the contraction seen in Ukrainian economic output within six months of the Russian invasion.

Iran's economy is not on the verge of collapse, it is simply experiencing a deep recession caused by an external shock.

From our latest research note:
https://t.co/J2Urankrvn

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Imho this kind of rhetoric would carry more weight if the Strait of Hormuz was more closed than it is open.

It’s far from “normal”, but we’re much closer to prewar oil flow levels than we are to the lows of March and April rn.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has confirmed that Pakistan and Qatar remain the two countries mediating between Tehran and Washington, seeking to narrow the differences between the two sides.

- According to Qalibaf, the mediators are still actively engaged, although the final decision now rests with the United States.

- Against this background, reports in the Pakistani media that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to attend the ECO ministerial meeting in Islamabad on November 15–16 are particularly interesting. His participation has not yet been officially confirmed by Tehran.

- If the visit takes place, it could provide an opportunity for further consultations with Pakistani officials and, potentially, for an exchange of messages in both directions between Tehran and Washington.

- This would not necessarily imply any breakthrough or the resumption of direct negotiations. But given Pakistan’s established role as an intermediary, such contacts could offer both sides a useful opportunity to better understand each other’s intentions and explore whether there is any room for further diplomatic engagement.

#Iran

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

VANCE CONSIDERS DIRECT IRAN TALKS TO END WAR

Vice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei, with Trump's backing, according to US and Middle East officials.

Doha is a possible venue, but no meeting has been scheduled.

Iran is demanding an end to the US naval blockade, access to frozen assets and sanctions relief before negotiations resume.

Mediators have proposed easing US military pressure in exchange for 25 tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Talks remain preliminary, with major disagreements unresolved.

[PSX and World on the Edge @MarkhorKnows]

@idhussain4 @MeherJazibAli Middle East countries denominated all their trade in $ & then poured all their oil money into US treasuries & investments. This was a significant factor in $ strength in past decades. The US economy is the strongest but if these factors are removed, USD will be under pressure.

[PSX and World on the Edge @MarkhorKnows]

@idhussain4 @MeherJazibAli This might take a few years but if there are more bonehead moves by the US government and/or the ongoing conflicts and economic crisis worsens, then it would happen relatively soon. Remember that Middle Eastern countries helped US dollar gain considerable strength in 50 years!