Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

Fintech Data Scientist @currensea and Pollster @ElectCalculus,
RTs/Likes/Quotes/Follows not endorsement,
Views my own.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally:

➡️REF: 376 (+371)
🌹LAB: 113 (-299)
🔸LD: 71 (-1)
🌳CON: 12 (-109)
🟢Green: 5 (+1)

Reform Majority of 100.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Bright bit of news for the Greens despite yesterday's by-election in Holborn and St Pancras.

Squeezing a gain from the Conservatives because of a fractured right.

[Voting Right | Uniting The Right UK @UniteRightUK]

We told Amber Valley to back Reform yesterday.

Result: Green GAIN from Conservative

Reform finished top of the right, as we said they would, just 57 votes short.

If roughly 1 in 11 Conservative and Restore voters had backed Reform, it would have been a Reform gain.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Not too shabby...

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

By-election projection for Holborn & St Pancras constituency:

🌹 LAB: 46% (−3)
🟢 Green: 35% (+25)
🌳 CON: 6% (−1)
➡️ RFM: 6% (−)
🟠 LD: 4% (−2)
⚪ OTH: 3%

LAB -> Green swing: 14%

LAB Hold

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

I'll take that.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

50/50 implies Labour or Greens win within a percentage point or two.

This won't happen.

Labour will win Holborn and St Pancras by more than 10 points.

Bookmark this.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

50/50 implies Labour or Greens win within a percentage point or two.

This won't happen.

Labour will win Holborn and St Pancras by more than 10 points.

Bookmark this.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski says he won’t resign as Green Party leader if he loses in Holborn and St Pancras

“It doesn’t depend on it whatsoever… I think it’s probably 50-50 right now”

[@guardian]

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Labour has held the Claremont ward in Blackpool, which on paper should be a very comfortable Reform win.

Right vote split, left vote consolidated.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

I don't know if there was a huge local issue at play here, but on paper this result sums up the Green's fortunes outside of cities: horrendous.

This sort of result also confirms why in seats like North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, the Greens are doomed.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Blockley (Cotswold) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 54.7% (+11.0)
🔶 LDM: 29.2% (New)
➡️ RFM: 7.5% (New)
🌍 GRN: 6.9% (-49.5)
🌹 LAB: 1.8% (New)

Conservative GAIN from Green.
Changes w/ 2022.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@PME_Politics @thetimes @YouGov https://t.co/zCySkD2QRz

We found much the same.

See below.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

The Right (Conservative/Reform/RESTORE) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote, yet they are projected to receive 40% of the seats across GB.

The Left (Labour/LibDem/Green/Nationalist) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote. They are projected to receive 60% of the seats across GB.

The Right in Britiain has never been more divided.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

The Right (Conservative/Reform/RESTORE) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote, yet they are projected to receive 40% of the seats across GB.

The Left (Labour/LibDem/Green/Nationalist) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote. They are projected to receive 60% of the seats across GB.

The Right in Britiain has never been more divided.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

🚨SEPTEMBER MRP POLL 2026🚨

We at @electcalculus asked over 5k people who they intended to vote for in the 2029 GE.

Seats tally

🌹LAB: 288 (-124)
🌳CON: 165 (+44)
➡️Reform: 84 (+79)
🟠LD: 61 (-11)
🟢Green: 7 (+3)
🟡SNP: 18 (+9)
🟡PC: 7 (+3)
🇬🇧RES: 1 (+1)

Changes w/ GE 2024

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@ElectCalculus @RupertLowe10 4/ The seat with the lowest winning vote share is forecast to be Coventry South.

Labour are forecast to win this seat with 22%, just 1 point ahead of Reform.

Zarah Sultana is projected to lose her seat and come fifth with 12%.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

🚨SEPTEMBER MRP POLL 2026🚨

We at @electcalculus asked over 5k people who they intended to vote for in the 2029 GE.

Seats tally

🌹LAB: 288 (-124)
🌳CON: 165 (+44)
➡️Reform: 84 (+79)
🟠LD: 61 (-11)
🟢Green: 7 (+3)
🟡SNP: 18 (+9)
🟡PC: 7 (+3)
🇬🇧RES: 1 (+1)

Changes w/ GE 2024

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@ElectCalculus @RupertLowe10 3/ The Greens appear to be going back in their rural seats of Herefordshire North and Waveney Valley with the Conservatives currently projected to take back both seats.

Those losses, however, are offset by gains in urban areas like London and Greater Manchester.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Interesting idea in principle, but how would such a card work at a supermarket or corner shop where the merchant is Tesco, Sainsbury's etc..?

You buy groceries and booze and cigarettes all in one transaction.

Almost impossible to discriminate as to what one buys.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Kemi Badenoch says the Tories would introduce a "Back to Work" debit card for Universal Credit claimants fit to work

For every 2 years worked, they would get an extra year on full benefits before a 30% cut and a card blocking alcohol, cigarettes, gambling and cash

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@thetrainline , I tried to book a train ticket on your app with my Amex and your 3DS failed to load when I was completing my purchase.

I managed to buy a ticket using my desktop, but can you please look into this bug as it is inconvenient having to book on my desktop as opposed to my phone.

Thanks.

Full error message:

com.thetrainline.three_d_secure.internal.PaymentAuthenticationExpection: com.trainline.three_d_secure.internal.cardinal.CardinalException: Error initalising Cardinal SDK

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@BBCBreaking And to top off the news for Reform Wales, a member of their Parliament has just defected to the governing party.

Reform MS Sarah Cooper-Lesadd plans to defect to Plaid Cymru https://t.co/sTC9b8ot2z

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@PolitlcsUK Meanwhile, a Reform MS is planning to defect to Plaid Cymru...

Reform MS Sarah Cooper-Lesadd plans to defect to Plaid Cymru https://t.co/sTC9b8ot2z

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

By-election projection for Holborn & St Pancras constituency:

🌹 LAB: 46% (−3)
🟢 Green: 35% (+25)
🌳 CON: 6% (−1)
➡️ RFM: 6% (−)
🟠 LD: 4% (−2)
⚪ OTH: 3%

LAB -> Green swing: 14%

LAB Hold

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

No surprises here.

Burnham wins in Holborn and St Pancras and the Greens are quashed.

The Right is divided and the left is united.

Perfect opportunity for an early election from Burnham's perspective.

My hunch is Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by more than a 10% margin.

[David Maddox @DavidPBMaddox]

Exclusive for @Independent: Starmer by-election is Burnham’s ‘test run’ for early general election, according to Labour sources

https://t.co/3Mip5ZEgwr

[Adam Smith Institute @ASI]

You’re going to want to RSVP to this one. 👀

THE AYN RAND LECTURE 2026.

ASI Co-Founder Dr Madsen Pirie delivers this year’s Ayn Rand Lecture: ‘A Rational Life’ at Drapers’ Hall, London.

📅 Monday 26 October
📍 Drapers’ Hall
⚠️ Limited spaces available

🎟️ RSVP: https://t.co/o16mc56eta