Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

Fintech Data Scientist @currensea and Pollster @ElectCalculus,
RTs/Likes/Quotes/Follows not endorsement,
Views my own.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally:

➡️REF: 376 (+371)
🌹LAB: 113 (-299)
🔸LD: 71 (-1)
🌳CON: 12 (-109)
🟢Green: 5 (+1)

Reform Majority of 100.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@SebastianShemi Podcast?

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Very good analysis here.

Another point worth analysing is the proportion of voters in 2026 locals who didn't vote in 2024.

The party that can re-engage with non voters the most effectively will get the keys to Number 10.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

A key point from the data we collected for this post is the importance of differential turnout in the local elections.

Reform 2024 voters were just much more enthusiastic than those of other parties. Had it been even their percentage would have fallen into the low 20s.

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

A key point from the data we collected for this post is the importance of differential turnout in the local elections.

Reform 2024 voters were just much more enthusiastic than those of other parties. Had it been even their percentage would have fallen into the low 20s.

[Ben Flook @Ben_Flook]

🇬🇧 More and more people are backing @RobKenyonReform to get Labour out and bring change to Makerfield! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Great to be out with @LeeAndersonMP_ and @ZiaYusufUK

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

I wonder.

If Labour beat Reform in Makerfield by a margin wider than Restore's vote share, will there be any fall out?

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Restore Britain is a good eg of the Netflixification of British politics, where social media has reduced the barriers to entry so much you can now find and vote for a political party that is most entirely attuned to your preferences without needing to swallow bits you don’t like.

Why Netflixification? In the past with TV you’d have to watch one of four or five channels with content tailored to the median viewer. Some were habitual channel hoppers but for most you’d like some of it not all of it and switch between them if you were really unhappy.

Netflix, Disney, Prime change all of that, rather than watching median content you can watch exactly what you want when you want, no compromises needed.

So too with political parties. In the past most would stick with the big 3 or 4. Some people were habitual swing voters, most stuck with parties even if they didn’t like everything they advocated. It was best fit rather than perfect match.

Social media changes that, it reduces barriers to entry for new parties and enables more choice. Increasingly we find can vote for parties that directly fit our world view because of the platform
They are given to reach people directly as Lowe has shown.

Reform was a product of that opening, but what’s striking is Restore shows it’s not the end point. For some Reform involves too much compromise and so they are able to go for a more “full fat version” and so rather than the 7 party system in Britain being the new end point it could just be the start (an extreme end point is a form of direct democracy where parties are perfectly attuned to individual voter preferences).

Obviously there are still factors which pull against the personalisation of politics, greater fragmentation also incentivises more tactical voting which squeezes that individual choice.

Nor is social media the sole reason for fragmentation, the failure of the main parties to deliver post 2008 and the broken social contract are clearly the biggest drivers of the turn away from traditional mainstream, but social media enables it more.

In fact the internet/social media have enabled (for good or ill) more personalisation in every other area of life, politics was a bit slower getting there.

[Damian Lyons Lowe @DamianSurvation]

Makerfield by-election briefing. Data tables and all prior materials are on the link below:

Points to note.
*This is a poll of 505 people in Makerfield this week and should be seen as an indicative early look.
*By-election headline voting intention with named candidates as were available is the 3 point Labour lead over Reform from table V5
*Reform (45%) have a 9 point lead over Labour on a generic Westminster polling question
*Burnham has strong leads among women and younger groups, Kenyon fares better with older voters in general and leads among men.
*How the Green and Restore campaigns pan out could be key. There's also at least a 7% Green Westminster vote share up for grabs.
*Do get in touch if you have question or concerns and have a lovely Sunday!
https://t.co/AkeqG0TKK4]

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@crates247 @AndyBurnhamGM My assumption is that in the absence of a Restore Britain candidate, Reform would get 70% of their vote.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

If Labour's vote drops by only 2 points since 2024, then that is a real vindication of @AndyBurnhamGM's popularity in Greater Manchester.

Pincer movement from Restore doesn't help Reform much either.

Restore getting 5-7% in Reform target seats will cost Reform up to 100 seats.

[PolliticsUK @PolliticsUK]

🚨 Makerfield Voting Intention:

🌹 LAB: 43% (-2)
➡️ REF: 40% (+8)
🟣 RES: 7% (+7)
🔶️ LDEM: 4% (-3)
🟢 GRN: 3% (-1)
🌳 CON: 2% (-9)
☑️ OTH: 1% (=)

From @Survation
From 18th - 22nd May
Changes with GE2024

*26 DAYS TO GO*

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@epkaufm Found it!

London Local Elections 2026 – Ward Map https://t.co/YVhBEElQQu

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

@epkaufm What app is that?

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Fasten your seatbelts.

30-Year treasury gilts have reached a 10 year high.

Even higher than just after the Truss mini-budget was announced

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Reform may have fallen short in the Banffshire and Buchan Coast constituency by 300 votes, but they topped the vote there in the regional list by nearly 5%.

➡️ RFM: 33.8%
🟡 SNP: 29.0%
🌳 CON: 20.5%
🟢 GRN: 4.5%
🔸️LD: 4.4%
🌹 LAB: 4.0%

[Owen Winter @OwenWntr]

The Greens won a ward in Birmingham with less than 21% of the vote

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Here in Halton, the Labour to Reform swing was over 50%.

Not sure what the biggest swing in the country was yet, but this must come close.

What this result shows is Reform is directly picking up old Labour votes and reaching parts of the country not even Boris Johnson could.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

If you also look at the Great Yarmouth First results in aggregate, they scored a higher vote share across the council than Rupert Lowe scored as a Reform MP back in 2024.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Interesting in Norfolk: @RupertLowe10's party has stopped Reform winning overall control of the council.

The question now becomes: will Restore Britain/GYF prop up a Reform administration?

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Interesting in Norfolk: @RupertLowe10's party has stopped Reform winning overall control of the council.

The question now becomes: will Restore Britain/GYF prop up a Reform administration?

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Randomly scrolling through @ElectionMapsUK's brilliant interactive map to see ward results across the country.

In a multi-party landscape, it is exceptionally impressive to see the Conservatives secure nearly 80% in the South Marston ward of Swindon.

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

The highest vote share for the 5 parties was in:

CON: Knightsbridge and Belgravia (50.5%)
LAB: Queen's Park (43.0%)
GRN: Harrow Road (35.1%)
RFM: Abbey Road (19.3%)
LD: Marylebone (26.0%)

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Full results in Westminster City Council.

Vote share for the major parties:

🌳CON: 35.1% (-3.5)
🌹LAB: 30.2% (-16.1)
🟢GRN: 17.7% (+15.6)
➡️RFM: 10.8% (+10.8)
🟠LD: 6.2% (-6.5)
⚫️OTH: 0.1% (-0.2)

Changes w/2022

[Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 @MarwanData]

Westminster City Council has never elected a councillor outside of Labour and the Conservatives.

The Greens came close in Harrow Road, falling 16 votes short.