China's holdings of US Treasuries continue to fall sharply.
Since April, China has sold over $40 billion of US Treasuries.
Since their peak roughly a decade ago, China has unloaded nearly $500 billon of US Treasuries.
Why is China selling US Treasuries so aggressively?
One answer is a potential slowdown of their economy.
Another is that this could be part of a broader strategic shift.
Regardless, this is a trend you can't ignore.
According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990.
Meanwhile, oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US set to refill them.
Tomorrow, an OPEC meeting kicks off to discuss ongoing production cuts.
The SPR situation is one of the largest strategic weaknesses of the US.
Maybe China is a source of the recent move higher in treasury yields?
According to Apollo, China has sold $300 billion in US Treasuries since 2021.
This includes $40 billion since April 2023 as the pace of their selloffs has accelerated.
Slowing growth in China prompting this selloff combined with rising issuances from the US are flooding the bond market with supply.
Perhaps HIGHER rates are normal and the decade of near 0% rates we saw was an outlier.
China will continue to dump US Treasuries.
Market breadth is a secondary indicator that means little without studying its history.
Oliver Kell @1charts6 point out the difference between poor market breadth at different points in the market cycle.
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Never before in Year 1 of a new bull-market have most stocks *not* participated in the advance. This time around, most S&P500 stocks, $IWO $IWM and most growth stocks are flat YTD which is not typical of a new bull run.
Furthermore, this year's rally in $SPX is the weakest Year 1 advance of any bull-market since 1957 and this is the first time when $SPX has undergone three 7% pullbacks in Year 1.
Anything is possible but the weak breadth + price action suggest that perhaps the advance in $NDX $SPX due to the "Magnificent 7" was an AI induced head fake ie. a bear market rally which will conclude after the onset of recession.
As always, time will tell.