Chamath Palihapitiya argues Nike got fat, woke, and lost the north star that made it great: athletic mastery and excellence.
Nike stock has collapsed 78% from its 2021 peak.
@chamath says Nike used to sell aspiration: Michael Jordan. Tiger Woods. Serena Williams.
Mastery. Excellence. Greatness.
“I don’t aspire to be a fat person. I aspire to be Michael Jordan.”
So true lol
Anthropic may have just created the mother of all IPO disclosure problems (Save this).
Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1, beginning the formal review process for a potential IPO.
During this period, companies must tightly control public communications that could influence investors.
The SEC interprets an offer broadly enough to include interviews, social media posts and other publicity that conditions the market.
That is why @chamath cited Google and Slack, Google had to insert the full Playboy interview with Larry Page and Sergey Brin into its prospectus, while Slack had to explain Chamath’s CNBC comments directly to the SEC.
Anthropic’s situation could be more consequential because the statements concern its core product and not ordinary corporate promotion.
Former researcher Jacob Coxon warned that frontier labs are developing potentially uncontrollable AI, while Anthropic’s alignment lead publicly supported the concern and estimated a greater than 10% extinction risk within a decade.
That creates an obvious question for the SEC and prospective investors because if Anthropic’s own safety personnel believe its technology could cause catastrophic harm, how does the company describe that risk, its safeguards and the possible financial consequences in its prospectus?
Section 11 of the Securities Act allows IPO investors to sue when a registration statement contains a material false statement or omits information necessary to keep its disclosures from being misleading.
Anthropic does not become legally liable simply because an employee predicts disaster because product liability cases still generally require an actual defect, measurable harm and a causal connection between the product and that harm.
The immediate danger is therefore disclosure risk and not an automatic trillion dollar product liability judgment.
Anthropic must either treat these extinction claims as credible and explain them transparently in its S-1 or distance the company from them and explain why its own senior safety employees are overstating the danger.
Trying to sell investors a trillion dollar growth story while employees describe the underlying product as potentially civilization-ending is the contradiction @DavidSacks is attacking.
Chamath on where Nike went wrong: "I don't aspire to be a fat person. I aspire to be Michael Jordan."
"If I've learned anything in almost 30 years of business, you have to have a very clear North Star and stick to it. When I was growing up, Nike's North Star was very clear to me, which was mastery and excellence embodied through athletics. That was it."
"I would see Michael Jordan, and I saw mastery and excellence. I would see Tiger Woods, Serena Williams, Pete Sampras, you name it, and it was mastery and excellence."
"Somewhere along the way, mastery and excellence became too traditional looking. So they went to things that were just nothing to be associated with mastery or excellence. I don't aspire to be a fat person. Never have, never will. I aspire to be Michael Jordan. Always have, always will."
"You can recenter around this idea that we're not here to make people feel better about themselves. Our success was when people imbued their desires of getting better through the lenses of these people that were incredible."
"There are incredible athletes who give up their entire lives to master something. And I think that Nike should own that, and they should be proud of that. How do you sell it everywhere? Because everybody will want it."
"But if you don't get the North Star right, you're going to miss out. And I think the North Star was clear: excellence and mastery."
Anthropic published a report on how their AI model Claude is being misused across the world.
Four findings that should keep every AI user up at night 🤯
1. DeepSeek and Moonshot were secretly using Claude behind your back.
→ You open DeepSeek. You type a prompt. You think DeepSeek is answering you.
→ It wasn't. Your prompt was quietly sent to Claude through thousands of fake accounts built on stolen credit cards and fake identities.
→ DeepSeek showed you Claude's answer and pretended it was theirs.
→ They saved every conversation to train their own models.
→ Moonshot alone used 5,380 fake accounts to pull this off.
→ Some of those conversations contained military data, government passwords, and company secrets.
2. One person can now do what an entire government team couldn't a year ago.
→ One guy built a surveillance system for Mali that could track 25 million phone numbers across the entire country.
→ One hacktivist in France broke into 14 organizations alone and built a search engine to look up anyone's personal data.
→ College students in China found security flaws that even experts hadn't discovered, using AI agents that ran on their own.
→ A Chinese operator who didn't speak a word of Arabic used Claude to run a fake recruitment campaign in Syria. The AI handled every conversation in real time.
3. A group in Yemen used AI to build a guided rocket and actually tested it.
→ They used Claude Code, Anthropic's coding tool, as their entire engineering department.
→ One instance wrote the guidance code. Another reviewed it. A third did research.
→ They were working on rockets, ballistic missiles, and a hypersonic glide vehicle.
→ They launched a test. It failed.
→ Within hours, they were back on Claude trying to figure out what went wrong.
4. Alibaba stole Claude's intelligence at a scale nobody has ever seen.
→ 3 million fake conversations per day with Claude.
→ 3,500+ fraudulent accounts created to pull this off.
→ 151 million total exchanges harvested over a few months.
→ All of it used to make Alibaba's own AI models smarter.
→ Seven Chinese labs were caught doing the same thing.
This report isn't about what AI might do someday. It's a record of what's already happening right now.
anthropic dropped a 154 page threat report and some of this shit is absolutely insane.
> alibaba allegedly sent 151M+ exchanges to claude to help train qwen
> moonshot and deepseek allegedly secretly routed millions of real user conversations through claude while users thought they were using kimi and deepseek
> a weapons group used multiple claude instances as an engineering team, test fired a guided rocket, failed, then asked claude to figure out what went wrong
> zhipu used 273 fraudulent accounts to extract claude’s chain of thought and used claude to clean, score and improve its own training pipeline
> a russian hacking group used claude across an espionage campaign and even had malware rewrite itself when security software detected it
> researchers tried using claude for potentially dangerous biological research
> governments used claude for surveillance of dissidents, journalists and activists
what the actual fuck
Anthropic’s new threat report is absolutely insane.
They claim:
-Alibaba extracted 151M+ Claude exchanges to help train Qwen
-Kimi secretly routed some users to Claude without them knowing
-DeepSeek apparently did the same
-A weapons group used multiple Claude instances as an engineering team, test-fired a guided rocket, FAILED, then went back to Claude to figure out what went wrong
What the fuck did I just read 😭
We're publishing our most detailed threat intelligence report to date.
It covers how people tried to misuse Claude—for cyberattacks, influence operations, surveillance, biology, and building weapons—and how we found and stopped them.
We disrupted every operation in the report, and used the lessons from them to strengthen our safeguards. Where appropriate, we also shared what we found with authorities and other AI companies.
These cases are not typical: we’re highlighting some of the most sophisticated misuse we’ve seen. But they’re especially important to discuss, because they show us where AI misuse is headed, where our safeguards work, and where they need to improve.
We’re publishing this report so others can spot the same activity on their own platforms, and so we can give the public a clearer view of how emerging threats develop.
Read the report: https://t.co/0EJUnYEgfz
tiger really be waking up every day just to do absolutely nothing. mf sleeps all day, gets up to piss on a TREE, then walks around like he just conquered the forest, bro catches one deer and suddenly thinks he's him. he's NOT him, this mf stays alone because nobody wants to deal with his ANNOYING ASS. TIGRESS out here raising the cubs while bro is somewhere in the bushes doing fuck knows what. mf don't build shit, don't grow shit, don't help nobody, he just eats, sleeps and kills whatever he can catch, and y'all really got the nerve to call him king. king of what bro? taking naps? this mf got stripes and an ego bigger than his whole body. he literally an oversized house cat with anger issues and a fucking PR team.
Three layers of luck.
1. Heaven Luck - the circumstances you are born into and have essentially no control over: your birthplace, parents, era, genetics, etc.
I actually dont care. We used to be dreadful many years ago. Now everyone hate watching for even a draw so they can milk views / impressions. Everyone knows we are favourites. Got a team of horrible bastards but yet still so likeable. Its our time. We’ve got supa Mik Arteta.
Martin Ødegaard.
The usual complete #8 performance and defensive diligence + leadership skills EXCEPT with the crucial box crash for the second Arsenal goal.
THAT is what this teams needs from you, especially with Havertz as the #9 who creates the space so often.
Bravo, sir 🫡
Nike's market cap hit a peak of $280B in November 2021. It's now down to $57B (a $223B drop) and will be delisted from S&P 100.
Former Nike branding exec Massimo Giunco wrote a viral post in 2024 laying it all out. He blamed CEO John Donahoe (2020-2024) for going all in on direct-to-consumer (DTC)...with a cameo from McKinsey:
▫️ELIMINATE CATEGORIES: McKinsey advised Nike to get rid of categories (running, basketball, soccer) and re-classify everything into “Women”, “Men” and “Kids”.
The logic was that Nike was duplicating resources and a pivot to DTC would provide enough customer data to inform product decisions instead of relying on the category experts (eg. a basketball vet that spent 20+ years at Nike). A lot of these experts were fired and Nike lost their insights.
This was a clear L because Nike quietly brought back categories at end 2023.
▫️END WHOLESALE LEADERSHIP: Nike ended hundreds of relationships with wholesales partners and prioritized Nike's website over retail.
The change looked genius during COVID but as customers returned to brick ‘n mortar, Nike’s product were nowhere to be found. It had burnt bridges with partners, who were happy to give shelf space to upstarts (this wasn’t covered but I think On and Hoka took advantage of this for running)
There was also a lack of feedback from retailers, which led to inventory issues (the “data-driven” insights from online sales proved to not be a panacea).
▫️PRIORITIZE DIGITAL MARKETING: Nike changed its marketing budget to focus on driving users to Nike digital properties and membership platforms.
For decades, Nike spent 10% of sales on brand advertising to create an aspirational halo. The prioritization of programmatic ad spend meant Nike went from “create demand” (new customers) to “serve and retain demand” (re-targeting existing ones).
The result was a slowdown in sales.
“Because of that,” writes Massimo Giunco (who spent 21 years at the company), “Nike invested a material amount of dollars (billions) into something that was less effective but easier to be measured vs something that was more effective but less easy to be measured. In conclusion: an impressive waste of money.”
The quality of advertising was also...not great.
***
The focus on DTC is not surprising. Donahue was formerly CEO of B2B SAAS firm ServiceNow.
Nike’s DTC business peaked at 44% of sales in 2024 (vs. under 30% before the strategy change).
The digital focus seems to have commoditized the product, impacted Nike’s brand perception and created an opening for competitors.
***
Original post: https://t.co/EAROAHEZRM
My favorite investing / business podcasts in no particular order:
1. Founders with David Senra
2. Merryn Talks Money
3. Acquired
4. Business Breakdowns
5. In Good Company - Nicolai Tangen
6. The Intrinsic Value Podcast
7. Invest Like The Best
8. Yet Another Value Podcast
Sex is so powerful bafethu😭🔥
my friend got a text from his girl saying "please come over tonight". he wrote his message saying "ohk I'll come" just as he was about to send, a thief took his phone and ran. my guy was only shouting "pressa send mfethu, pressa send!!! 😂