Players ahead of Kenneth Walker III in the MVP race...
Josh Allen
Brock Purdy
Patrick Mahomes
Trevor Lawrence
Joe Burrow
Drake Maye
Lamar Jackson
Dak Prescott
Matthew Stafford
Jared Goff
Disrespected?? 🤨
No politician can hide from me, not even Nancy Pelosi.
She disclose $BE call options on July 24 and $INTC call options on July 28.
Using Unusual Whales, we can find her EXACT trade.
She paid millions for her calls, done 1 hour before close.
These were traded while Congress was in session.
We are going to put this debate to bed right now for our feed and followers.
The debate is which selloff had stronger gamma mechanics. We tracked both in real time. Here is the data.
MARCH 2026 (selloff, SPY $670.85 on March 17):
Composite: -51.9
Total GEX: -$1,228M
Net Premium: -$128M PUT-HEAVY
Daily Delta: -138.8M shares SHORT
IV Skew: +3.95% (puts 22.1% vs calls 18.1%)
Nearest Accelerator: $660 at -$350M
OPEX Overhang: 2.70M puts vs 1.22M calls
JULY 2026 (FOMC + fund liquidation, SPY $735.84 on July 29):
Composite: -47.5
Total GEX: -$2,064M
Net Premium: +$267M STILL CALL-HEAVY
IV: 20.0% call, 19.6% put
Nearest Accelerator: $735 at -$211M
Skew: inverted (calls more expensive than puts)
WHICH ONE WAS STRONGER:
July. Not close. The aggregate negative gamma surface was 68% deeper. -$2.06B vs -$1.23B. The amplification engine that forces dealers to sell into every downtick was running nearly twice as hard in July as it was during the tariff selloff.
But stronger gamma does not mean worse selloff. They were different animals.
March had bigger individual accelerators. The $660 strike carried -$350M by itself. The single largest gamma landmine we have tracked. Nothing in July exceeded -$228M. March had fewer but heavier bombs. July had the negative gamma spread across every strike from $725 to $743, a wider and deeper field with smaller individual charges.
Here is the critical difference. March premium flipped put-heavy. Real capitulation. The money flowing into puts exceeded calls on green days. The institutions were buying protection, not upside. The fear was genuine. The skew hit +3.95%. Puts priced 4 points above calls.
July premium never flipped. Even at $735.84 with the Fed fourteen minutes away and a $24B fund being liquidated through three prime brokers, call premium was still 56%. The institutions never stopped buying upside. The skew inverted. Calls became more expensive than puts during the selloff. The money was positioned for recovery the entire time.
March was fear. July was mechanics. The gamma was stronger in July. The conviction was worse in March.
That is why March took weeks to recover and July took five sessions.
March bottom to recovery: 3+ weeks
July bottom ($728.69) to all-time high ($764.75): 6 trading days
The gamma tells you how large the move will be. The premium tells you which direction it resolves. In March both said down. In July the gamma said large and the premium said up. The market followed the premium both times.
We tracked both in real time. The data is timestamped. The reads are published.
$SPY $IWM $QQQ
@market_sleuth
🚨BREAKING: Palantir smashes Q2 with revenue up 93% to $1.94 BILLION, crushing the $1.80 BILLION estimate.
US commercial revenue surged 149% to $764 MILLION.
Net income hit $1.062 BILLION, up 225%.
The company raised full-year guidance to $8.16 BILLION, well above the $7.73 BILLION Wall Street expected.
BREAKING: Citadel Absorbed BILLIONS worth of $SMH from Leo's Situational Awareness Fund on July 27th
Citadel is one of the largest dark-pool and block participants - Retail DOES NOT have access to these markets
This Story just got even Crazier:
In the days leading up to a full-book takeout it is common for the eventual buyer to:
-Test liquidity by absorbing pieces of the book
-Build inventory or hedge its own exposure
-Facilitate the primes’ marketing effort
So the dark-pool activity seems to have been Situational Awareness/primes selling partial exposure → Citadel days before the news was released
Then, yesterday, Citadel announced that they expected the Fed to hike rates, which sent semiconductor stocks spiraling MUCH lower
It is possible that Citadel was aware of Leo's dire situation from previous deals and deliberately slammed the tape lower to completely wipe him out and scoop up his books for cheap
I am so grateful for the opportunity to step in the circle, and am excited to continue my journey. Below is a couple of my favorite strikeouts from my 2026 spring season. #ClassOf2030#Pitcher@LineDsoftball@D1Softball
The market is getting ready for a rate hike. Here's why.
Since July 16th, the 2-year Treasury rose 15 basis points. The 10-year rose 10. The curve bear-flattened with the front end leading. That's near-term policy being repriced, not growth or term premium. Markets now price roughly 1-in-3 odds of a hike at Wednesday's FOMC.
🚨🚨But the signal isn't in the rates. It's in the stocks.
We built a factor years ago (Sensitivity to Interest Rate Changes), and have been using it since 2012. It scores every stock by how much its return depends on the yield curve. If you know which industries benefit from rising rates and which get hurt by them, you can build a portfolio that isolates the rate signal from everything else. Long the beneficiaries. Short the casualties. What you're left with is a pure bet on rate direction with the broader market noise stripped out.
This week that factor activated.
Stocks that historically get hurt the most when rates rise, over the last five days: TRIP -9.4%, TYL -8.9%, AGNC -7.6%, NWL -7.4%. The 24-name basket we track has fallen 3.86%. The market is already pricing the hike through the stocks most sensitive to it.
Stocks that benefit historically the most when rates rise: XOM +7.5%, JPM +2.0%, BAC -0.3%. In a market where the equal-weight S&P (RSP) fell 1.46%, these names held or gained. The spread between the winners and losers is roughly 690 basis points. The stocks that should fall are falling. The stocks that should rise are rising. The rate hike is already in the price action.
This matters because of Warsh. He killed forward guidance at his first meeting. No dot from the chair for the first time since 2012. When the Fed won't tell you the path, the market guesses. Guessing under uncertainty means demanding more compensation.
If the no-guidance regime is genuinely transmitting tightening, it should show up in the rate-sensitivity factor BEFORE the meeting, not on the announcement. That's what happened this week.
To be clear: this does not mean a rate hike is happening next Wednesday. The odds are 1-in-3, not a certainty. What we're showing is that the stocks most sensitive to rate changes are already moving as if one is coming. The setup looks directionally right. The evidence is thin. Those are different claims. Treating them as one is how people end up sized wrong. We track the signal. The Fed makes the decision.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM #FOMC
BREAKING: Sen. Rand Paul says newly released internal federal documents show the FBI asked Customs and Border Protection not to stop, search, or question EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak when he returned from China through JFK Airport in 2021 during the WHO’s COVID-19 origins investigation.
According to the documents, CBP had identified Daszak as an “extremely high person of interest” and planned to search his electronic devices and question him about his ties to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but stood down after a request from the FBI.
VIA: @BillMelugin_
$ARM down $57 from the @RBC goobers price target raise. So they missed the $260 to $427 move. Then raises their guidance to $475 to sucker buyers in as their exit strategy as predicted.
@FTC should subpoena every position of RBC and make public any manipulation. It would be devastating.
The AWS outage is arguably more impactful to someone just going about their day to day life than the government shutdown.
That should tell you everything about the strategic importance of the cloud players.
A reminder that $OSCR completed a public offering after the ACA Subsidies were suspended, meaning they have strengthened their Cash balance since
So an extension of the ACA subsidies means that this Cash injection has effectively made them stronger than before the big beautiful bill was passed.
Even more bullish on $OSCR.