Mathew Steele

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @mathiamathia @ezchill70 @cisko73mosca @Then_Beyond @TheAshishJalan @IK2379128548 @FoodHou67882697 @chuckrich777 @kabirsvoice I've followed you a long time and respect your opinion. Different opinions help challenge my own. You are the best macro strategist on X, which is why I am trying to understand why you think this will not be a protracted war?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @OliverNessa2 @mad_panos @FinavigatorMe @theandymillette Why do you think that though? Do you think Iran will capitulate? They won't. They lost 750k+ in the Iran/Iraq war, they welcome martyrdom. They won't agree to a ceasefire because US/Israel will just attack again. Iran must make the world feel economic pain to resolve this.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @mathiamathia @ezchill70 @cisko73mosca @Then_Beyond @TheAshishJalan @IK2379128548 @FoodHou67882697 @chuckrich777 @kabirsvoice To say this war has been executed decisively is wrong imo. Trump is begging for help with Hormuz. He's going to send in troops to try opening it. One bad decision after another. He thought this would be a quick win, it won't be. We'll see what $150 oil does to the market.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @OliverNessa2 @mad_panos @FinavigatorMe @theandymillette With good reason. You said yourself the meltup is likely off if the war is protracted. Trump wants Hormuz open and will likely send in troops. S&P has only dropped 7% so far. It dropped ~20% at the start of Russia/Ukraine. This conflict is much more important to the world economy

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @FinavigatorMe @theandymillette If you can share, it would be great to understand your read. How do you see it playing out in a way that keeps your forecasts in play?

You are right about diversity of thought, but that's not how you control the masses. The Iran war is all about conformity and subjugation.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @FinavigatorMe @theandymillette Why don't you expect this outcome? Iran needs to inflict real pain on the world economy to reestablish deterrence. Trump is unlikely to stop without prolonged economic pain. The US needs Hormuz open, they will need a huge ground force to do that. Quagmire written all over it.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @Johnw9240 @powpowpaws @GaryAus52195229 @ChiefLorenzo10 @GoldCore The "enemy's" capabilities seem fine enough to close Hormuz and to hit any asset in the region. That's all they need to keep oil high and send the world into recession. Trump is in a trap of his own making and we're all going to pay.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @Jason73821 @HftForPeople @jessebday Hi Dave. Letting it play out could mean riding the markets all the way down if this Iran conflict continues. The Ukraine-Russia war caused a big drop in the markets and pushed out your forecasts quite a bit. What does a protracted Iran war with $100+ oil do to your forecasts?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian Hi Dave, thanks so much for your forecasts the past few years. With silver now parabolic and sentiment seemingly very bullish, how do you read current psychology? Has optimism become excessive, or is there still enough skepticism/worry to keep fueling the move?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian Hi Dave, currently the TLT effective duration is 15.86yrs with a AVG yield to maturity of 4.76%. If rates go to 0% that would imply a 75% increase in TLT's price, taking it to $156. Why you think it will go to $200 in the bust?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian Hi Dave, during the bust do you think the CME will fail? I assume many counterparties will be failing, so will the CME guaranteeing contract performance be too much for it to handle?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian Hi Dave, are you able to shed any light on why you seem unphased by what is happening right now? Unless you think the tariffs will be reversed, they will likely lead to a big slowdown. Is it because interest rates will drop quickly to compensate?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian The Australian Financial Review is reporting it's the lowest level since April 2020. In any case, it has had a big drop and the Australian media are reporting on it most days.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian Hi Dave. Would you have any thoughts to share on the current state of the AUD vs USD? It's at 5-year lows.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @DraculaTrading I'm letting it play out, it's not pleasant watching. Copper is unchanged from 12 months ago and is moving in the wrong direction. Silver, gold and the indexes have all had good moves. Nothing doing with copper.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @DraculaTrading Hi Dave. I understand timeframes have been pushed out, but with copper falling below $4 today your forecasted price seems further away as ever. Why do you think copper is so far off your forecast?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @brandonromanek @SilverBullionPL @silverguru22 Hi Dave, from a contrarian perspective is it a concern that there are so many silver bulls this early in the move?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @BerndSc22072436 Hi Dave, I was wondering whether you could provide more info on why your targets for GDX, SIL and SILJ have remained unchanged even though you've raised your targets for gold and silver?

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @AndrewHarriga11 @marketoutsider1 To be fair Dave I think you did bring this on yourself. Earlier this year you were definitive that the top would be in before the election. Of course people will continue to ask about that timing if you have said you believe it will happen by then.

[Mathew Steele @MathewSteele17]

@DaveHcontrarian @ny2fla22 @GoldCore Hi Dave, can you please elaborate on this? If commodities are rising through the rest of the decade, you don't think GDX/SIL/SILJ/COPX wouldn't track the rise in commodities? Or were you referring to S&P500/Nasdaq/Rus2000?