Matt Cwiek

Always on the move. With my mind wrapped around photography, art and travels. Influenced by architecture, abstracts and cinema.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TradeCraftLab @TedPillows Totally agree!
We will most likely see downside swipe before tactical bounce up towards higher resistance.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TradeCraftLab Nice clean trigger on the models. Adding to this, the lack of spot volume conviction on the push higher + positioning into FOMC makes the exhaustion feel even more pronounced. Quick 2.5% in 6 hours is textbook for these setups.

[TradeCraft Lab @TradeCraftLab]

I don’t believe we are at bear market floor yet.

$BTC still has support, but not the kind of support that confirms a macro bottom.

Daily structure has improved. 4H is still holding above key trend levels. ETF demand remains a real bullish force.

But the broader picture is still mixed: weekly structure has not repaired, momentum is no longer clean, and the latest platform read has shifted into choppy continuation rather than strong upside confirmation.

So my base case remains:

This is a supported recovery / basing attempt inside an unfinished bear structure - not a confirmed final floor.

BTC can still squeeze higher, but I need stronger weekly confirmation before treating this as a durable macro bottom.

#Bitcoin #BTC #MarketStructure #CryptoIntel #TradeCraftLab

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TradeCraftLab Yess, not for quite a while I’m hostile macro.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

Interesting week ahead 😉

[TradeCraft Lab @TradeCraftLab]

U.S. Economic Data This Week
• Tue: ConsumerConfidence
• Wed: DurableGoods + FED RATE DECISION
• Thu (Heavy Day): Q1 GDP, CorePCE, ECI, Jobless Claims
• Fri: ISM ManufacturingPMI
Stay sharp & manage risk.

#CryptoTrading #Fed #Macro

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

Absolutely

[TradeCraft Lab @TradeCraftLab]

Markets wrapped a strong week - Nasdaq, S&P500 gaining ground as trade tensions showed signs of easing.
Crypto continues to move in tandem with macro forces, often more closely than in parts cycles.
Near-term risk-on sentiment remains fragile.
#CryptoTrading #crypto #MacroRegime

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

Without strong macro back winds and wider retail participation there’s no chance for any longer up move.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC is right into its $74,500-$76,000 resistance zone.

Despite SPX's new ATH, Bitcoin is unable to reclaim this zone, which is a sign of weakness.

IMO, BTC is now very close to its local top, and the chances of another downside are very high.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC monthly RSI could make another low in 2026.

This is when Bitcoin will most likely bottom.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TedPillows The direction is quite clear considering all - months of down trend with occasional relief bounces.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TedPillows His a terrorist not politician 😔

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TedPillows I doubt it’s possible in this macro environment despite of technical setup possibilities.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

⚠️ $BTC looks stretched on the 1H and is sitting in a plausible short-term top zone.

Not confirmed downside yet, but this is an interesting cautious short area.

Price is stalling near highs. If local support starts to go, downside could open up quickly.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@TedPillows Just? 😉

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@DefendDark Not any time soon I’m afraid

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@alicharts Annoyingly more relevant is what BTC will do than individual alts structures

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@SatoshiFlipper Might as well be opposite direction

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@CryptoMichNL Possibly a bull year, but way too early to say with any confidence.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@amonbuy @grok @GertvanLagen Good stuff 🙃

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@CryptoMichNL The cycles as we knew are gone.
The market as we knew is gone.
Macro, usability and adoption will drive the trends from now on.

[Matt Cwiek @MattCviek]

@AshleaSimonBF The truth is that people are the same everywhere where you go.
However, you actually have to go to find out.