Matteo Raffaelli

#filmmaker
#bitcoin believer

[Blastometro @BlastometroTW]

Blastometro "Gran Riserva"

[Sci-Fi Archives @SciFiArchives]

Logos for Evil Companies from 80s Sci-fi Movies

[Matteo Raffaelli @MatteoRaffaell7]

@Criv81 Sempre preciso e puntuale, grazie Christian!

[Selene🌙 @laila_kleis]

Unico vantaggio di un cervello che fa overthinking 24h/7 è che la realtà non risulta MAI peggio di qualsiasi scenario che ti sei creata in testa

[Eugenio Cardi @EugenioCardi]

Gabrielli a #ottoemezzo, PERCHÉ VOTO NO.
Ascoltatelo con molta attenzione che dice delle cose estremamente interessanti e condivisibili, nonché piuttosto preoccupanti.

#ioVoteròNO #referendum 22-23 marzo

[Matteo Raffaelli @MatteoRaffaell7]

@Opi_59 @xruiztru Montpellier, Marseille, la banlieue parisienne... ça craint de ouf tout ça

[Matteo Raffaelli @MatteoRaffaell7]

@Criv81 Sono abbastanza massimalista, ma è vero che con la tokenizzazione degli asset ETH e qualche Alts (poche) faranno fortuna.Ttutto dipende da come Bitmine gestirà il debito e le perdite. Potrebbe farcela a sopravvivere, se va bene fra qualche anno farà 10x o più.

[Variety @Variety]

Wagner Moura on why he believes Americans take democracy for granted:

"When I was doing 'Civil War,' I was constantly thinking about how differently Brazil reacted to our insurrection — in a better way than you guys did, because Brazil was quick to do the right thing and send the message that you can’t mess with democracy. We sent people to jail. Bolsonaro is in jail.

In America, it’s as if they’re testing, like a kid — they’re like, 'I’m going to do it,' and if there’s no reaction, then what? I feel like the U.S. and its institutions are not responding with appropriate firmness — putting up boundaries, people facing consequences."

https://t.co/MVh4B1LeHM

[Matteo Raffaelli @MatteoRaffaell7]

@TheRonnieVShow Interesting! @TheRonnieVShow can I ask what tool you use to analyze the market?

[Waqas @worqas]

Good luck painting this extremely likable guy as a villain.

[Paolo Borghello 🐝🐝🐝 @PaoloBorg]

Attenzione: quello che sta succedendo in America con esecuzioni in strada da parte di un corpo di polizia ormai a tutti gli effetti diventato milizia paramilitare che non risponde a nessuna regola e con un capo che si veste da militare della Gestapo è esattamente quello che i sovranisti amici di Trump faranno in Europa se glielo permettiamo.
Siete avvisati TUTTI

[Jessica Burbank @JessicaLBurbank]

so 6 ICE officers struggled to keep 1 man down, got frustrated, and shot him multiple times.

again, if you emasculate these guys, they shoot you

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

JUST IN: Coinbase announces a new quantum computing advisory board

The board will:

- Publish position papers on the state of quantum computing
- Issue guidance to users, developers, and institutions
- Respond in real time to major quantum breakthroughs

[Emanuel Pietrobon @emanuelpietrob1]

Le minoranze etniche si sono rese conto che l'ICE ha reclutato in larghissima parte bianchi di estrema dx e neonazi, per esempio ex membri dei famigerati Proud Boys. Fatto che spiega le violenze indiscriminate che stiamo vedendo.
Così, le minoranze si stanno armando.

[Joe Rogan Podcast News @joeroganhq]

Gavin Newsom: "Our children are watching a president who calls people 'retards' and 'piggies.' It’s disgusting."

[Senator Mark Kelly @SenMarkKelly]

Troops from European countries are arriving in Greenland to defend the territory from us. Let that sink in. And now Trump is setting tariffs on our allies, making you pay more to try to get territory we don’t need. The damage this President is doing to our reputation and our relationships is growing, making us less safe. If something doesn’t change we will be on our own with adversaries and enemies in every direction. Republicans in Congress need to stand up to Trump.

[Sen. Bernie Sanders @SenSanders]

Because of Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill,” the annual ICE budget — at $28 billion — is now larger than the annual budgets of the FBI, DEA, ATF, U.S. Marshals Service and the Bureau of Prisons COMBINED.

No. The American people do not want Trump's domestic army.

[Abel Avellan @AbelAvellan]

Congratulations to Prime Minister @narendramodi, @isro, and @NSIL_India on the successful launch of our BlueBird 6 satellite—the largest-ever commercial communications satellite in low Earth orbit.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Perfect execution from both teams in India and the U.S. We are now in control of BlueBird 6 from our D.C. command center and with nominal telemetry! 🇺🇸🤠💪

[David @david_eng_mba]

BITCOIN IS MATHEMATICALLY COILED FOR $118K+

16 years of data. 5,636 daily observations. R^2~98%.

The Log Periodic Power-Law model (LPPL) has predicted every major cycle peak since 2011.

Right now, the math is screaming one thing: The spring is loaded.

1. The Signal: Coiling
Bitcoin is trading below its 16-year structural trend (negative residuals).

Historically, this setup has preceded major rallies. This is accumulation, not failure.

2. The Track Record: 4 for 4
No curve-fitting. Peaks are identified via physics (period-doubling).

Next projected peak (2027): $400k–$600k.

3. The Statistical Proof (No Cheating)
AIC test for model validity:
• Strong evidence threshold: >10
• LPPL score: 3,457
These cycles are structural, not noise.

4. Maturation ≠ Weakness
Volatility compression is expected:
• 2012: ±250%
• 2024: ±75%
That’s maturation. A ±75% move on a $100k asset still creates generational wealth.

5. The Timing: The Accumulation Trough
The cycle Cycle oscillation has crossed below zero and is turning up.
Prior instances:
• 2015 (~$250)
• 2019 (~$3.5k)
• Now (~$88k)
This is the pre-acceleration zone.

6. Asymmetry — Low-Risk Setup
• Pattern holds → 4–7x
• Pattern breaks → 2–3x (reversion to power law)
To lose, a 16-year mathematical structure must fail exactly as institutions and nation-states enter.

Conclusion
The math says the spring is loaded.
The timing says we’re early.
The odds say this is asymmetric.
Near-term target: $118k+
Cycle target: $400k+

Position accordingly.

Bitcoin LPPL Model, Structural Fit and Cycle Signal
16 years (5,636 days) of data show a locked-physics LPPL model fits Bitcoin better than a pure power law
(R² ≈ 0.98; ΔAIC = 3,457).

Acknowledgment:
This analysis is based on the work of Stephen Perrenod (@moneyordebt) and his LPPL framework applied to Bitcoin’s price structure.