Matthew Cancian

[CSIS @CSIS]

In a new report, @CSISDefense experts conducted a series of wargames with @MIT_SSP to examine the possible nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Read here: https://t.co/FYgJbQ6GIs

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@CTReese2 It's on my reading list now!

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@CTReese2 Very interesting. I hadn't been thinking of the FD2030 force as one that is built not for relevance to warfighting but only for competition. I guess that makes sense given the lack of attention given to kinetic scenarios (which I'd guess wouldn't play out well)

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@CTReese2 Definitely agree on your point about the need to have scenario-based analytic process (like the JFOS). But I worry that the scenarios posited in these FD2030 vignettes are vague or niche. I would like the debate to look at the Taiwan invasion scenario.

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@CTReese2 If US ships have been ordered to pull back, how would having LSMs help? How is air delivery of supplies interdicted during a non-shooting crisis? What is the "China Sea", and where is the "target area" in relation to it, that the Marines can range Chinese ships with NMESIS?

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@CTReese2 To make the best plans for a future conflict, we need to think concretely about future scenarios. This article posited Chinese amphibs in the "China Sea" and US forces in the "target area" during a non-shooting crisis where U.S. ships have been ordered to pull back.

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@BDHerzinger There are many things that have to go right for ASBMs to impact a carrier. You have to locate the CSG's position, determine its speed, then communicate that information to the firing unit quickly enough so that the carrier is still in the ASBM's seeker when it arrives.

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@JackieGSchneid Good job staying tough, it's important to tell children the truth

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@MaxBoot Any study must have scope conditions to be rigorous, or else they must explain the entire universe. @StaciePettyjohn has run two exploratory games about nuclear escalation. I hope that the CSIS team can again follow in their wake with a wargame series on this vital topic.

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@PdxInteractive An Albert Speer simulator

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@JayMcvann There's a discrepancy between the hypothetical performance of ship based defense and the historical record. In the CSIS wargame, the results are actually better for the US when we model ship defenses according to their less effective historical record, because of Taiwanese ASCMs

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@hevidarzana1 @HezkurdHZK Rojnamegerên Kurdî zimanê rêk û pêk belav dikin û jî hûn xelkê Kurdî nîşan didin di cîhanê de çi pêk tê - xebata we gelekî mohîm e!

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@TheKimulation Then people could debate about if those effects would lead to capitulation or not. As for prior beliefs, Eric and dad agree with you that a blockade is unlikely to cause sufficient damage. I tend to disagree. Hence the need for more research!

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@TheKimulation I'm trying to start another CSIS wargame series on blockade. It's harder to model - how do you determine the effectiveness of the blockade? Best course IMHO is to simply measure GDP loss and excess mortality from starvation and energy shortfalls.

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@EmmaMAshford Even if we ignore the dangers of intentional and inadvertent escalation, is the objective even feasible without direct action by NATO ground forces? I have yet to see an analysis of this. @CommissarBinkov's video about the terrain of the Crimea is a good start, but more is needed

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@EmmaMAshford When people argue for sending everything we can to Ukraine so that they can liberate all of their country, I keep asking for some modeling about what is needed. Assume we send 500 M1s and 100 F-16s. Would that give Ukraine a reasonable force ratio to seize Crimea?

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@TheKimulation Ideas like this should be kept at the meme level

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@TheKimulation Say they pull off the switcheroo and get the US to believe that the Ro-Ros and L-class ships at sea are full of troops, not prisoners. Then the IS bombers sink the ships and the assault troops are stranded on the mainland! It's not like China has an infinite number of ships.

[Matthew Cancian @MatthewCancian]

@tshugart3 I feel like if anyone below the age of 50 is printing stuff in a SCIF, that should ring alarm bells