Mavrick J.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Vexo200 the same mechanism runs the other way too.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@lorneseth the answer sitting between the extremes is the whole point.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@tigerfl0w logging every mistake is the part nobody copies.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Di_Krass_ yeah, nothing about it has changed.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

a chunk of Wall Street prices your stocks with one model - a drunk stumbling across a field.

filmed at MIT. the math hasn't moved.

Prof John Guttag walks through it live, in code.

a drunk with no memory of his last step drifts only √n from the start - 10,000 steps out, he's about 100 away. motion without progress.

"the movement of prices in the stock market is best modeled as a random walk." no edge, and that's you: lots of trades, almost no ground.

add the smallest bias and distance stops crawling as √n - it grows in a straight line. the edge was never speed. it was direction.

[Zyron @Zyron5m]

https://t.co/YKQWpNduno

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@carbonyxxx exactly, still the drunk pricing everything.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@0xMavian yeah, same model all these years.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@0chob right, more than people want to admit.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Neuron_404 true, seeing it in code makes it click.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Aster_x0 yeah, motion without progress nails it.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Vexo200 exactly, activity is not the same as progress.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@agentfluai right, that line really is the whole thing.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Zyron5m yeah, noise looks like movement till you measure it.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

a chunk of Wall Street prices your stocks with one model - a drunk stumbling across a field.

filmed at MIT. the math hasn't moved.

Prof John Guttag walks through it live, in code.

a drunk with no memory of his last step drifts only √n from the start - 10,000 steps out, he's about 100 away. motion without progress.

"the movement of prices in the stock market is best modeled as a random walk." no edge, and that's you: lots of trades, almost no ground.

add the smallest bias and distance stops crawling as √n - it grows in a straight line. the edge was never speed. it was direction.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@carbonyxxx betting only when payoff beat the odds.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Neuron_404 saving this.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@0xMavian one number swinging it from never to one in ten is wild.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Di_Krass_ betting big only on angles nobody else sees is the method.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@tigerfl0w the ones charging you hope you never press play.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

@Quantex0x true, genius shows up in odd places.

[Mavrick J. @Mavrickoss]

a Stanford professor built a device to beat roulette - "a vacuum cleaner in the casino."

filmed at UW years ago. the wheel hasn't changed.

Persi Diaconis - ran away at 14 to be a magician, came back for the math.

roulette isn't random, he says - it's physics you haven't measured. clock the ball and the wheel and you call the pocket.

it worked until one thing no equation had: the casino's air conditioning. the draft moved the ball; the numbers came only after tuning live.

"we made money with it." the edge hides in what you never measured. the wheel obeys Newton - the table calls it luck.

[Veles @velesxbt]

https://t.co/YoNbtFby2V