Hard consensus is Bitcoin’s immune system. Fees price block space. Nodes set policy. Miners build blocks. Holders allocate capital. Protocol changes must earn overwhelming alignment, so bad ideas fail before becoming iatrogenic protocol changes. $BTC
Just bought solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump because I believe in the black bull. I’m going to be giving some away to the community. Drop your Solana wallet below
most people cheering for Sui today don't actually know what they're cheering for. let me explain why 6M+ TPS is a bigger deal than it sounds.
TPS = transactions per second. how many actions a blockchain can process in one second.
here's the context:
- Ethereum: 15-30 TPS
- Solana: 65,000 TPS
- Visa: 24,000 TPS
- Sui today: 6M+ TPS
on mainnet. live. public. no testnet tricks.
this matters because every time Ethereum gets busy, gas fees go insane and transactions fail. that's a TPS problem. every time a game or app "breaks" on a blockchain during high traffic, that's a TPS problem.
at 2.6M TPS, Sui can handle global payment systems, thousands of AI agents running simultaneously, games with millions of players, and DeFi all at once without breaking a sweat.
the crazy part? this wasn't done with shortcuts. Programmable Tunnels process millions of offchain transactions and settle them onchain the architecture actually supports this at scale.
every chain promises speed. Sui just ran the test in public and posted the receipts.
This week focused on securing data privacy, scaling decentralized capital markets, and welcoming new cohorts to network development pipelines.
Here is your weekly Sui ecosystem recap:
• @LoquaApp launched a privacy-first agentic messenger on Sui, allowing users to text, interact with AI agents, and send tokens peer-to-peer natively in chat.
• @RipStationxyz deployed graded Pokémon cards for onchain trading and physical redemption, on Sui.
• @suidevelopers hosted a technical Nerding Out session featuring @kostascrypto and @abhinavg6 to break down the cryptography behind protocol-level confidential transfers.
• @0xfluid is choosing Hashi to build institutional Bitcoin credit markets, enabling native $BTC to serve as collateral via formally verified contracts on Sui.
• @realtbook and @paga partnered to create a compliant financial bridge, offering tokenized real-world assets to consumers and businesses across Africa.
• Six early-stage development teams, including @AssetoFinance, @audricai, @gendotpro, @kash_bot, @predikt_gg, and @transact_sh, completed the 3rd cohort of the Sui Hydropower Fellowship.
• Tokenized asset access expanded as @tradeonhudi announced the upcoming launch of 24/7 leveraged APAC equity perps for Korean, Japanese, and Hong Kong markets.
• @Turbos_finance shared their Q2 2026 report. they shipped a CLMM , and peaked as the top AMM DEX with over $17M in single-day SUI-USDC volume.
The upcoming Sui Tunnels experiment will open soon to systematically test network TPS limits under load. We look forward to community participation and testing when it goes live!
We're pushing Sui to the limit.
A live public experiment, open to everyone. Log in with email, and watch AI agents battle across dapps, games, payments, and chat.
Goal? 1M+ TPS thru Sui Tunnels. Millions of offchain txns, settled onchain.
Livestream: July 4 | 9 am PT
$NBIS: While many have been panic-selling due to manufactured FUD, I've added Nebius shares and I'm now RAISING my 12 Month Nebius PRICE TARGET due to shifting Macro Factors 🔥
My Prior 12-Month PRICE TARGET of $317 per share was based in part on macro bear market multiple.
Read on for my admittedly rudimentary updated ARR Valuation Model and new PRICE TARGET:
On the Q1 2026 call, Nebius reiterated ARR guidance of $7–$9B by end of 2026 for the AI Cloud business. I now believe due to the recent management revelation of a 50/50 hyperscaler/cloud revenue split (my prior estimate was minimum 60/40 HS/cloud Rev split) conveyed by Nebius's Tom Blackwell, that Nebius will more likely either raise the ARR guidance range to $8-10B ARR for end of 2026 on the next earnings call or maintain but come in at the high end of guidance. Nevertheless I will maintain what I think is a fairly conservative $8B ARR estimate by end of 2026.
H1 2027 COMPUTE GUIDANCE: Management also raised 2026 CapEx guidance to $20–$25B and noted they expect to bring more compute online in the first half of 2027 than they did in all of 2026. If the compute added in 2026 supports the midpoint ~$8B end-2026 ARR, then adding even more in 1H 2027 could reasonably support more than another ~$7B incremental ARR ($8B minus the ~$1B ARR Nebius ended 2025 with). To be conservative, assume the $7B ARR added in H1 2027: this gets us to approximately $15B ARR by end of H1 2027.
GROWTH RATE: Achieving the 2026 midpoint of ~$8B ARR would represent massive 700% YoY growth. Q1 2026 AI Cloud ARR already hit $1.92B. The implied trajectory above keeps growth well over 100% into 2027.
MACRO-INFLUENCED ARR MULTIPLE: In the winter of 2022 bear market trough, no major cloud/SaaS companies with a growth rate of over 100% YoY traded below ~6x ARR. In this hyper-growth AI context, under bearish macro assumptions, a 6x ARR multiple is extremely conservative. In my previous model, I employed a 6X ARR multiple because I factored in inflation costs rising due to the escalating price of oil (I mentioned this was possibly only short term impact) and the Fed's more bearish stance on inflation and even the possibility of a rate hike. But recent developments have showed a shift in the Fed narrative. Inflation risks are coming down (per Fed’s Kevin Warsh public comments on July 1, 2026). Truflation’s real-time US CPI index is currently running at ~1.80% YoY — below the Fed’s 2% target — underscoring that disinflation may be back on the table. Adding serious ‘fuel’ (pun intended): Global oil has fallen below $67.50 while the U.S. just hit a record 21.84 million barrels per day of crude oil + petroleum products production (+4.9% YoY, with crude alone at a record 13.93M bpd). This is a major deflationary metric for the Fed. Meanwhile, the June jobs report just came in soft: only +57k jobs added (vs +114k expected), unemployment fell to 4.2% (vs 4.3% expected), and May was revised down another -43k. A volatile, softening labor market is yet another catalyst for possible shift toward rate cuts. All these objective metrics are now signaling at least the possibility of a macro turnaround and a much more accommodative Fed chair in Warsh who is highly bullish on the Ai buildout and its relationship to GDP and believes that the US can grow GDP tremendously while maintaining deflationary impact. All of that said, I have previously used a bear market multiple of 6X ARR and a bull market multiple of 10X ARR with a 'raging bull' market multiple of 15X ARR. Taking into account the shifting macro conditions and Nebius growth rate, I'm updating my multiple to a more bullish base case 8X ARR up from my prior 6X ARR bear market multiple.
MARKET CAP: Now using 8X my ~12 month ARR estimate of $15B achieved by the end of June 2027 derived from management commentary/projections, we arrive at a Nebius market cap of ~$120B.
SHARES OUTSTANDING: Nebius reported ~253.9 million shares outstanding as of Q1 2026. The company raised ~$4.34B in convertible senior notes with an initial conversion price of ~$183/share, which equates to an additional ~23.7 million shares if fully converted. But remember management also guided for a 2026 CapEx increase of an ADDITIONAL $5B, which I'm going to factor in by adding 25M shares from the ATM program. At a share price over $200, this would raise ~$5B+ for capex. So my total estimated fully diluted shares outstanding then rises to approximately ~302 million.
PRICE TARGET : A $120B market cap divided by ~302M shares yields ~$397 per share. So I'm updating my BULLISH BASE CASE 12-month Nebius PRICE TARGET to ~$397 per share.
NFA. Always do your own research!
14/17 $BTC bottom indicators are flashing.
This isn't a broad agreement across indicators, it's a rare level of analytical confluence which only appears when we are absolutely aligned with forming a bottom.
I was bearish at the highs. Now I'm bullish at the lows.