Founder of New Summit Capital. Investing in small multifamily properties (5-50 units) in select Midwest markets. Trying to stay useful daily in the AI age
I told a buddy that housing market was in correction. He laughed. He owns 6 rental properties, none of which cash flow. Apparently “that’s how to generate losses.”
They aren’t ready for what’s coming
Tokens will get 90% cheaper every year as models improve and $10k desktop workstations from @dell and @apple, running open source models, drive tokens to “essentially free”
Token costs will be looked at like storage and bandwidth costs in a couple of years — which is to say you won’t think about them much.
The core CPI miss was entirely due to an unexpected plunge in the car insurance index, which tumbled by 1.7% MoM (??), the biggest drop since covid. Most had expected a modest 0.1%-0.2% drop. Excluding this drop, core CPI would have printed hotter than estimates.
hyperliquid:native has now surpassed $8 billion in USDC
That's a lot of future yield from the circle deal in regards to AQAv2 for the AF buybacks.
That's potentially an additional 700k+ per day in future buybacks coming on top of what it's doing today. Assuming no further growth.
Big dips if given, are for adding to the winners
You do not want to be competing against the world for eyeballs
One of the reasons why real estate is such a good place to make money
You're competing against a few people in your local market and most of them are idiots
Atlassian's revenue: $1.79 billion last quarter
Atlassian's move: fire the engineer who built their infrastructure
his move: post a 38-minute breakdown of every system he built, free for anyone to copy
what he revealed:
> Envoy proxy instead of enterprise load balancers
> sidecar architecture for auth, logging, rate limits
> DynamoDB + SQS for async provisioning
> Packer + SaltStack for automated VM deployments at scale
Atlassian charges per employee across 350,000 customers
this guy just handed you the enterprise playbook for free
save this
The AI supercycle will last 15 years. We're in year 3.
Most investors are still buying Phase 1 names while the real money is already rotating into Phase 3.
I mapped the entire cycle into 4 phases with the tickers that matter at each stage:
The AI supercycle is the biggest investment theme of our generation. Bigger than mobile. Bigger than cloud. A 15 year structural shift that will reshape every sector of the global economy. Hyperscalers just committed $725 billion in capex for 2026, nearly doubling last year. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta each spending over $100 billion individually.
This is not speculation. I've mapped the entire supercycle into four phases so you know exactly where we are and where the asymmetric opportunities sit.
🔴 Phase 1: Already Ran (2023 to 2025)
The foundation layer is complete. $AMD ran 78% in 2025, $NVDA 39%, and $INTC just posted a blowout Q1 that sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index above 10,000 for the first time. Chips still power every phase but the generational entries are gone and risk/reward has compressed.
- $NVDA, $AMD, $ARM, $INTC, $AVGO, $MU, $GLW
- Semiconductors, Memory & Storage,Photonics/Optics
- Foundation complete. Still growing but priced for it.
🟠 Phase 2: Peak Buildout (2025 to 2027)
The phase most investors just woke up to. $CEG acquired Calpine to become the largest U.S. private power producer at 55 GW. $GEV up over 200% in a year. $VRT co engineering cooling for NVIDIA's Rubin architecture. $GLW up 74% YTD on optical fiber demand. Nuclear SMRs are the breakout with $OKLO, $SMR, and $BWXT positioning to power data centers directly. Still upside but the obvious names have moved.
- $CEG, $GEV, $VRT, $VST, $TLN, $ANET, $GLW, $MOD, $EQIX $OKLO, $SMR, $BWXT, $NNE
- Power/Grid, Cooling, Networking, Nuclear/SMR Peak buildout.
- Nuclear SMRs are the sleeper.
🟡 Phase 3: The Positioning Window (2026 to 2028)
Where AI escapes the data center and enters the physical world. Most will be late. Tesla converting Fremont to Optimus production, $25B capex, mass production targeted H2 2026. Rocket Lab posted record $602M revenue with $1.85B backlog. $LUNR up 47% YTD with $943M in contracts. $KTOS Valkyrie drone selected for the Marine Corps. The window to position is open right now.
- $TSLA, $RKLB, $LUNR, $KTOS, $AVAV, $PATH, $ISRG $MP, $FCX, $ALB, $ASTS
- Robotics/Autonomy, Space/Defense/Drones, Rare Earths
- This is where the asymmetric risk/reward lives.
🟢 Phase 4: Final Frontier (2028+)
The endgame. Microsoft capex $190B. Alphabet $190B. Amazon $200B. Meta $145B. Google Cloud backlog past $460B. They're building the rails for AI software dominance and AGI. Quantum still early but $IONQ and D Wave are laying groundwork. The platforms that control the software layer win the entire supercycle.
- $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, $ORCL, $IONQ
- AI Software Dominance, AGI Infrastructure Decade long thesis.
- Accumulate on weakness.
💊 Key Takeaway
- Phase 2 is confirmed ($725B hyperscaler capex)
- Phase 3 is where the smart money positions nowRobotics, space, defense, nuclear
- SMR are the 2026 to 2028 trades
- Most will rotate into these names 12 months too late
15 year supercycle. Not a trade. Phase 1 ran. Phase 2 is priced. Phase 3 is where you want to be.
Notably, we sold our two largest positions $TQQQ and $SSO today with meaningful profits. With both of the positions very extended above the 50day ma and likewise the leaders of this advance beginning a digestion i.e. Memory, Semiconductor, and Optical stocks we thought it prudent to raise cash significantly.
Kinda reminds me of when tea companies became blockchain companies during a mania phase
If we start seeing more of this I wouldn’t be surprised to see a broader AI pullback follow
The best performing US-listed ETF of 2026 has just $65M in assets.
Most people have never heard of it.
Despite outperforming $USO by nearly 5x, this Shipping ETF has only seen a sliver of the volume, quietly pricing every shift in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Freight has become the real signal.
And right now, it's starting to tell a very different story than oil itself. $BWET
In 2022 bear market I did a trading bot with a friend
I built the strategy, he built the code
After months, we made it work and it ended up being profitable
The market was boring and building something with friends instead of alone is always more fun, but you can't imagine how many hours we worked on it
Today I saw Binance is launching Ai Pro, and it reminded me of that trading bot, because if we made it today, we'd probably do it 10x times faster
About Binance Ai Pro, I like what I'm reading so far, It's still in beta, but it has potential.
You can analyze markets, build strategies and test them.
But there are 2 things I like a lot:
1. You can connect advanced AI models like chatgpt or claude
2. You can manage positions through a dedicated virtual sub-account, your "AI account"
This way I keep the AI account (for testing) separate from the main Binance account (for trades). Also, being able to connect chatgpt or claude is perfect for me because I can convince my friend to help me again
It's a "bear market" and we have better tools, I think it's time to build another one from 0, but this time better.