@NoLimitGains down 20-30% in two weeks means you were long the highest-beta names in a cyclical correction inside a secular buildout. the tourists leaving is how the theme gets investable again
@lisaabramowicz1 a company generating ~$100B of operating cash flow terming out debt at 40-50 year maturities to fund compute is not distress, it's duration matching. the interesting question is the spread they're paying, not the headline number
@P_Remarks Well, don't these SCA's just mean it's going to crowd out future demand even more for the top spenders? Says a lot that auto companies are securing memory when SAAR is ex-growth and stuck at 16m ha
@rev_cap well we will see if the market is right - already has 2 cuts (2yr 50bp ahead of fed funds) but has also been very wrong many times the opposite way
also looking at UE is pretty pointless vs 50yrs ago lol the difference in population/household growth is night and day
@rev_cap he is def not the most dovish ever but okay lets accept the premise they need to hike - How much and for how long until UE moves higher?
tough to hike in low hire/fire economy because tipping point is close
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%.
There were large upward revisions to March and April, raising the three- and six-month hiring averages to 188,000 and 92,000, respectively.